Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the New York Jets. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: New York Jets
2022 Results
Record: 7-10; 4th in the AFC East
Season End: Missed the playoffs
New York Jets Offseason Summary
Draft
1.15: Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State
2.43: Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin
4.112: Carter Warren, OT, Pitt
5.143: Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pitt
6.184: Zaire Barnes, LB, Western Michigan
6.204: Jarrick Bernard-Converse, DB, LSU
7.220: Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion
Joe Tippmann, C (2.43)
The Jets re-signed their Connor McGovern — not to be confused with the Bills version. But the veteran’s $1.9 million salary suggests a backup role. Aaron Rodgers earned his 2021 MVP with some rookie Josh Myers starts at center. But he had previously enjoyed seven years of continuity with Corey Linsley. Rodgers and the Jets are really hoping Joe Tippmann can be a capable starter from Day 1.
Israel Abanikanda, RB (5.143)
Israel Abanikanda was a luxury pick for a running back room with Breece Hall, Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight. But the Pitt product also excelled at his Pro Day and might have been a Day 2 draft pick if a hamstring injury hadn’t sidelined him for the combine. He might not play much as a rookie, but Abanikanda will likely spur a surprising 53-man roster cut.
Zack Kuntz, TE (7.220)
Zack Kuntz is something of an afterthought as a seventh-round draft pick. But the Jets are unusually loaded with veteran starters after the Aaron Rodgers trade. And Kuntz has at least a small chance of helping the team’s relatively weak tight end position. He certainly has the athleticism to do so — he demonstrated that with standout 4.55-second 40 and 4.12-second short shuttle times and with 40-inch vertical and 128-inch broad jumps at the combine. And Kuntz had a prolific 73-catch, 692-yard junior Old Dominion season before an undisclosed injury ended his senior season in early October and knocked him down draft boards.
Additions
Free agent signings: WR Allen Lazard, G Wes Schweitzer, WR Mecole Hardman, DT Quinton Jefferson, WR Randall Cobb, DT Al Woods, C Trystan Colon-Castillo, T Billy Turner, P Thomas Morstead
Trade additions: QB Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Aaron Rodgers has been non-stop drama the last several seasons in Green Bay, and it’s difficult to see that subsiding with the heightened media attention in New York. That said, Zach Wilson lapped the field of regular season quarterbacks with an 18.6% inaccurate pass percentage in 2022. He wasn’t a worthy starter, and Rodgers will not need to recapture his 2020-21 MVP form to represent a massive upgrade for the team and maybe save head coach Robert Saleh’s job.
Allen Lazard, WR
Rodgers brought a pair of binkies in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb with him from Green Bay. Lazard matters more now that Cobb is 32 years old and playing less than 50% of snaps. But Lazard still seems likely to fade from his career highs of 100 targets and 60 catches from 2022 now paired with a true No. 1 receiver in Garrett Wilson. Lazard may make his biggest fantasy impact as a run-blocker for Breece Hall.
Nathaniel Hackett, OC
Hackett could not survive his first season as the Broncos head coach in which he led $245 million new quarterback Russell Wilson to a bottom-six season in EPA per dropback. But while a transition from a LaFleur to Hackett might distress fans, I’m skeptical it will move the team’s offensive needle in either direction. Hackett coordinated the Packers offense in Rodgers’ 2020 and 2021 MVP seasons.
Departures
EDGE Nathan Shepherd, DT Sheldon Rankins, G Nate Herbig, QB Mike White, RB James Robinson, WR Braxton Berrios, G Dan Feeney, T Cedric Ogbuehi, WR Jeff Smith, T George Fant, QB Joe Flacco, S Lamarcus Joyner, LB Kwon Alexander, EDGE Vinny Curry, T Mike Remmers, G Dru Samia, WR Rodney Adams, LB Marcell Harris
Elijah Moore, WR
Elijah Moore fell dramatically short of his early-second-round draft expectations — maybe more for off-field than on-field reasons. But while his departure vacates a modest 65 targets from 2022, it does open a starting slot role that could become much more relevant for fantasy now that Aaron Rodgers is the team’s quarterback.
George Fant, T
The Jets have the outside talent in Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown and Billy Turner to survive George Fant’s departure. But Fant led the team’s tackles with a 2.5% blown block rate in 2021 before a knee injury delayed and disrupted his 2022 season. The Jets need to improve on their bottom-third 57% pass block win rate from last season or risk sabotaging their splashy Aaron Rodgers trade, and offensive tackle is their most likely weak link.
James Robinson, RB
James Robinson’s unexpected 1,000-yard undrafted rookie season is a distant memory after he broke just 13.6% of his potential tackles in 2022, a bottom-10 rate split between a pair of different teams. But Robinson’s departure sets a clear competition for the team’s No. 2 running back role behind Breece Hall. And Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight and rookie Israel Abanikanda all make compelling claims to deserve the job.
Schedule
Week 1 – Buffalo Bills (Jets +2.5)
Week 2 – @ Dallas Cowboys
Week 3 – New England Patriots
Week 4 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 5 – @ Denver Broncos
Week 6 – Philadelphia Eagles
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – @ New York Giants
Week 9 – Los Angeles Chargers
Week 10 – @ Las Vegas Raiders
Week 11 – @ Bufalo Bills
Week 12 – Miami Dolphins
Week 13 – Atlanta Falcons
Week 14 – Houston Texans
Week 15 – @ Miami Dolphins
Week 16 – Washington Commanders
Week 17 – @ Cleveland Browns
Week 18 – @ New England Patriots
2023 Future Odds
DraftKings: Wins Over/Under: 9.5 (+110/-130)
DraftKings/Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: To Win AFC East (+270)
Two seasons removed from selecting Zach Wilson with the No. 2 overall pick, the Jets decided to move on from the third-year signal caller, ushering in a new era led by Aaron Rodgers. The future Hall of Famer should bring stability under center, which will be critical for a team that started four different quarterbacks last season. Despite finishing as the fourth-worst scoring offense in 2022, averaging the eighth-fewest yards per game, New York nearly broke their 12-year playoff drought, staying in the hunt for 17 out of 18 weeks. They started hot, winning seven of their first 11 games, and collapsed down the stretch, ending their season on a six-game losing streak. While the offense faltered, the defense remained steady all season long, allowing the fourth-fewest points and yards per game. The pieces are in place for the Jets to be immediate contenders next season, opening with a 9.5-win total. Although the team is much more well-rounded, there’s too much juice on the over, implying they’ll likely win double-digit games next season for the first time since 2015. I think there’s a realistic chance they fall short of expectations and do not believe they come out of the division.
Best Bets
DraftKings: Breece Hall AFC East Most Regular Season Rushing Yards Leader (+500)
Jets’ 2022 second-round running back Breece Hall played just seven games last season but dominated in a limited sample. He racked up 463 rushing yards on 80 carries, averaging a league-high 5.8 yards per attempt. Hall opened the season behind Michael Carter on the depth chart but took over the backfield rather quickly, averaging 87.5 rushing yards in his last four games as the lead back. Extrapolated over a 17-game season, would have put Hall on pace for 1,487.5 rushing yards. Had it not been for the torn ACL and/or the singing of Dalvin Cook, Hall would have much shorter odds to lead the AFC East in rushing, likely a heavy favorite. Instead, he’s priced at +500, trailing his teammate Cook (+300) and Patriots’ running back Rhamondre Stevenson (+125). We did not get to see Hall play this preseason, but reports on his recovery have been positive, likely to suit up in Week 1. Even if Hall is limited early, the risk is baked into the price and worth considering as a long shot. The last time Hall was on the field, he only needed four carries to rip off 72 yards and a touchdown.
DraftKings: Sauce Gardner Defensive Player of the Year (+1500)
Reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner was incredible in his first season, already regarded as one the best cornerbacks in the league. He took no time transitioning to the pro level, leading the NFL with 20 passes defended to go along with two interceptions. Per Next Gen Stats, Gardner allowed just two touchdowns last season, earning the second-best EPA when targeted at the position (-28.8). He was the centerpiece of an elite Jet’s secondary that allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game in 2022 (189.4). Only six cornerbacks have ever won the Defensive Player of the Year, but I like backing Gardner’s odds to buck the trend, betting on an ascending talent in year two. It isn’t a popularity contest, however, all the attention on New York this offseason should only work in Gardner’s favor.
