Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Wednesday 8/30)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers

Yankees -225 @ Tigers +185 – Total 7.5 (BetMGM)

The New York Yankees have certainly been a disappointment this season, as they sit in the American League East cellar, 19 games behind the Orioles. One thing the Bronx Bombers have done well this season, though, is hit southpaws. Over the last 30 days, their 166 wRC+ and .408 wOBA against left-handed pitching both rank second-best in MLB, behind only the Astros (177 and .427). The Yankees are slashing .318/.365/.602 with 14 home runs over that stretch. New York has had great success against fastballs this season. They lead the Show with 86 dongs, and their .521 slugging percentage off that offering ranks second behind only the Braves. This bodes well for their matchup tonight as their opponent features his fastball more than 42% of the time.

Toeing the rubber for the Tigers is lefty Joey Wentz. Wentz has struggled this season, posting a 6.62 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Wentz’s advanced stats aren’t much better, with a 5.46 FIP and a 5.55 expected ERA. Wentz has gotten shelled by right-handed hitters throughout this season. Righties have a 5.60 FIP against Wentz, a .378 wOBA, and are hitting just below .300 with a slash line of.298/.354/.537 against the 25-year-old. The projected Yankees lineup features nine right-handed hitters. I mentioned Wentz’s fastball usage above and it isn’t an offering he’s had success with. Batters are hitting .364 off the southpaws’ fastball, slugging .636, with a .454 wOBA. His fastball has a run value of negative 16 and a hard hit percentage of 56.9%. It’s hard to imagine too many starters with worse results on their most featured pitch.

A.J. Hinch doesn’t have many better options down in the pen. The Tigers bullpen sits just outside the bottom 10 in terms of ERA but they’ve been getting smacked around lately. Over the last 14 days they’ve posted a 6.89 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, with a .300 batting average against.

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