Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After a massive slate of games Saturday, bettors and college football fans will get treated to a top-10 matchup between the No. 5 LSU Tigers and No. 8 Florida State Seminoles Sunday night at Camping World Stadium in Orlando (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC). LSU enters the primetime showdown as 2.5-point road favorites over Florida State, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Below we’ll break down this exciting top-10 battle between these two SEC and ACC foes and provide bettors with our best bet.
LSU vs. Florida State
Spread: LSU -2.5 (-110); Florida State +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: LSU -142, Florida State +120
Total: Over 56.5 (-110); Under 56.5 (-110)
These two teams faced each other in New Orleans to open up last season. The Seminoles walked away with a 24-23 win, but it wasn’t easy as the Tigers erased a 14-point deficit in the third quarter. Both quarterbacks put on a show in the Big Easy as LSU’s Jayden Daniels had 323 total yards of offense and two passing TDs, while FSU’s Jordan Travis threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns.
We should expect Daniels and Travis to be locked in for this matchup, as both signal callers are candidates for the Heisman Trophy. Last season, Daniels was one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country, throwing for 2,913 yards, 17 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He also led the Tigers in rushing yards (885) and scored 11 touchdowns. LSU will look for Daniels to play at a high level as he tries to neutralize the Seminoles’ defensive line, which features Jared Verse, who could be a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Tigers won’t have RB John Emery Jr. for Sunday night, but they still have Noah Cain, Josh Williams and Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs.
Those three running backs, plus Daniels, will test Florida State’s run defense, which allowed 156.4 yards per game last season. Last season, LSU was a mediocre 4-4 against the spread as a favorite but 4-1 ATS in non-conference games. As for Florida State, Travis will try to build off his 2022 campaign and attack the Tigers’ defense with outstanding wideouts Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman. This will be Coleman’s first year in Tallahassee after spending the first two years of his career at Michigan State. Last season with the Spartans, he compiled 58 receptions for 798 yards and seven touchdowns. Wilson had three receptions for 60 yards in last year’s game but finished the season with 43 receptions for 897 yards and five TDs.
With those two playmakers at the wide receiver spot, Travis should make some plays in the air. But the Tigers’ defense only allowed QBs to complete 55.8 percent of their passes last season. And did we forget to mention they have stud sophomore linebacker Harold Perkins, who had 72 total tackles, 13 tackles for loss, and 7.5 sacks as a freshman in 2022?
Nevertheless, the Seminoles were 2-1 ATS as an underdog and 2-3 ATS in non-conference games last season. This will be a nice early-season test for both teams, who should be in the college football playoff conversation. However, I believe the Tigers get their revenge on the Seminoles Sunday night and take the win in Orlando.
Best Bet
LSU -2.5 (-110)
