Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Our ADP analysis continues at FTN. In recent weeks, we have focused on players that were seen as valued (or overpriced) based on the current ADP trends on Underdog Fantasy. However, this week the article will go in a different direction.
Now that draft season is in full swing (at least on Underdog), this article will be dedicated to the players that have moved up or down the rankings over the last two weeks. The increasing volume of drafters (along with teams going through OTAs over the last two weeks) has led to some dramatic shifts among players’ ADPs.
As a reminder, all ADP data is coming from Underdog Fantasy, a best-ball fantasy platform. One thing worth noting is that some ADPs are a bit different than traditional platforms due to the importance of stacking in best ball formats. Let’s dive in.
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 196.5
It has been a steady fall through the rankings for Trey Lance. Over the last two weeks, he has dropped 11.4 spots in ADP. In the last month, he’s seen a 22-spot fall. This all comes off the consistent noise out of San Francisco that Brock Purdy will be the starter when he’s healthy enough to play coming off UCL surgery and the increasing likelihood that Purdy will be ready to go early in the season if not Week 1.
To his credit, Lance has gotten praise from numerous players for his preparedness coming into camp this season. Unfortunately, it seems like Lance’s ability to overcome Purdy’s 8-0 run as a starter (before the elbow injury) is unlikely. Lance has completed just 54.9% of his passes for 797 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions in two professional seasons. Fantasy managers wanting to gamble on his upside (or Purdy failing) would be wise to grab him at a reduced cost given the little risk associated with the pick, but it is hard to blame anyone for avoiding the apparent QB2 (and possibly QB3) in San Francisco during drafts.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 64.7
Unsurprisingly, one of the biggest ADP movers in the last two weeks was Alexander Mattison, following the news of Dalvin Cook’s release by the Vikings. Mattison jumped up 16.2 spots in the last two weeks now that he is the presumed RB1 in Minnesota. However, it is hard to wonder if Mattison’s round-plus leap in ADP is truly warranted now that he finds himself a fifth-round pick in fantasy drafts.
Mattison has made six starts in his career thanks to Dalvin Cook‘s injuries. In those games, he’s averaged 19.5 carries, 4.5 targets and 115.5 all-purpose yards and scored five total touchdowns. While those are strong numbers, it is worth noting that five of those starts have come against poor rushing defenses (Atlanta, Seattle and Detroit three times). In his lone game against a competent rushing defense (the LA Rams in 2021), Mattison had just 41 yards on 13 carries and a rushing touchdown.
Mattison has the feel of your prototypical dead zone running back, a player who has elevated ADP due to his role as a rusher that lacks the receiving upside to finish as a top-10 running back. While he can have value as a steady contributor (and will have some touchdown upside), it is hard to bite on the big ADP spike given how little we know of his effectiveness as a rusher with a full-time starting role.
Jeff Wilson, RB, Miami Dolphins
ADP: 182.5
The biggest dropper in terms of running backs is none other than Miami’s Jeff Wilson, who has moved down 15.2 spots over the last two weeks. This is undoubtedly due to the rumors circulating that Dalvin Cook’s preferred landing spot is the Miami Dolphins, which would put him in a similar role that Wilson played in 2022 (with far more talent).
While it is certainly possible that Cook finds a landing spot in Miami, it is far from assured. Assuming that Cook lands elsewhere, this is opening up a nice value window for Wilson for fantasy drafters that want to get a cheap piece of the Dolphins’ backfield. In 8 games with Miami in 2022 (including one start), Wilson had 84 carries for 392 yards and a touchdown while adding 12 receptions (on 24 targets) for 94 yards and a touchdown. During his time with the Dolphins, he averaged 10.5 carries and 3.0 targets per game.
The Dolphins’ backfield has already gotten more crowded after the team added Devon Achane during the 2023 NFL Draft and brought back Raheem Mostert after a relatively healthy 2022 season. But if Mostert were to go down with an injury, Achane would fill that role, leaving Wilson’s role intact.
Even if the Dolphins sign Dalvin Cook, it would be hard to view taking a flier on Jeff Wilson Jr. as a wasted pick given his 15th-round cost in fantasy drafts. But if Miami chooses to go into 2023 with their current backfield, then fantasy managers will have a consistent role player in a multi-back rotation tied to one of the most explosive offenses in the league.
Parris Campbell, WR, New York Giants
ADP: 211.5
Parris Campbell’s ADP has remained steady throughout the last month, which breaks the theme of this week’s article. However, Campbell finds himself here because his current ADP is an absolute steal.
Campbell struggled with injury issues the first three seasons of his career but finally played in 16 games in 2022 for a Colts offense mired in bad quarterback play. Despite the poor talent throwing him the ball, Campbell finished with 63 receptions on 91 targets for 623 yards and three touchdowns. He also added five carries for 58 yards. The veteran receiver hit the free agent market and was promptly signed by the Giants on a one-year deal for $4.7 million. It hasn’t taken the Giants long to experiment with Campbell in different areas of the field.
In fantasy, Campbell’s appeal is simple: the Giants have one of the most ambiguous receiving groups in the NFL. The team’s leading target earner (Saquon Barkley) is currently threatening a holdout due to the franchise tag. No returning wide receiver on the team had more than 71 targets in 2022 (Darius Slayton). The two other competitors for slot snaps are coming off ACL injuries and may miss time to start the season (Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson). 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt is regarded as a developmental wide receiver after running a very gamed-up route tree with Tennessee. The projected leading receiver in 2023 is Darren Waller, who has his lengthy injury history and has played just 17 games in the last two seasons.
There is a realistic outcome Parris Campbell leads the Giants in targets in 2023. Even if he doesn’t, it seems extremely likely that Campbell can easily pay off his value as a 17th-round pick if he stays on the field next season.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 194.9
The biggest faller at wide receiver over the last two weeks is Colts rookie Josh Downs. The North Carolina product was a third-round draft pick after catching 202 passes for 2,483 yards and 22 touchdowns in three seasons with the Tar Heels. Unfortunately, he has missed time throughout the summer thanks to a knee ailment, which is likely the main factor for his fall.
Beyond that, Downs finds himself in an offense with a project quarterback (Anthony Richardson) and legitimate competition for targets in Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. The Colts figure to be an extremely run-heavy attack with Richardson and Jonathan Taylor in the backfield and should feature a healthy amount of two tight-end formations. That means fewer snaps for Downs, who figures to operate mostly out of the slot in his first season in the NFL.
Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: 201.9
Michael Mayer’s fall in ADP (he’s down 9.5 spots in the last two weeks) is somewhat strange. Sure, rookie tight ends historically struggle to establish themselves early in their career. And there is some uncertainty about the health of Jimmy Garoppolo and his status with the Raiders. But it feels like Mayer, who was already going late in drafts, is dropping to the point of a value.
Mayer is an adequate athlete at the tight end position and is coming off a college career at Notre Dame that saw him catch 180 passes for 2,099 yards and 18 touchdowns. He’s also one of the best blocking tight ends in the class, meaning he will be a three-down tight end who will benefit from play action in the passing attack. The rookie doesn’t possess massive big-play potential, but he will see a steady diet of snaps and should be able to rack up targets, especially using his 6-foot-6 frame in the red zone.
The Raiders also don’t have much stopping Mayer from earning a role on the field after trading Darren Waller this offseason. The tight-end depth chart (outside of Mayer) features Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard, two veterans clinging to roster spots at this stage in their careers. Mayer should earn a role early in his career.
If you aren’t prioritizing tight ends in fantasy, then you should be shooting for the upside. While Mayer lacks upside as an athlete, he should see a majority of the offensive snaps in his first season in the NFL and will possess weekly touchdown upside.
