Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy football season is in full swing, and Week 9 presents new challenges with unexpected twists and turns. Injuries, bye weeks, and breakout performances are shaking things up, making it crucial to stay ahead of the game.
My “10 Things” is your ultimate weapon for navigating these obstacles, providing the insights you need to dominate your league this week and the rest of the season. Here we go.
1. Darnold Seeing Ghosts Again?
Unfortunately for Sam Darnold, the Vikings lost starting LT Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury in Week 8, suffering a torn ACL and MCL on the second-to-last play of the first half. Unsurprisingly, Darnold saw increased pressure after losing his star left tackle, the pressure rate jumping from 33.3% to 42.9% between halves. With the pressure rate rising by nearly 10%, his completion percentage dropped about the same, from 76.9% in the first half to 66.7% in the final two quarters.
Darnold has struggled mightily under pressure this season. Using the advanced filtering features of FTN StatsHub, I found that without facing pressure, Darnold has a 74.8% completion percentage, a solid 9.6 yards per attempt, and 13 of his 14 touchdown passes. But facing pressure, his completion percentage drops by more than 30 percentage points to 43.5%. His yards per attempt are nearly cut in half, dropping to 5.2, and he’s thrown just one touchdown.
The Vikings attempted to fill the massive void left by losing an elite player like Darrisaw by trading for Jacksonville LT Cam Robinson (pending physical). The problem? Robinson was benched by Jacksonville last week and has played in just one full season in his eight-year career. If the Vikings fail to find a fix and Darnold sees increased pressure the rest of the season, his feel-good resurgence could be over.
2. Fantasy Fools Gold Shining Bright in Seattle?
Speaking of career resurgence coming to an end, Geno Smith seems headed for a similar fate. While he’s not put up astronomical numbers this season, he’s been a rock-solid QB2 for superflex formats and an occasional spot starter in 1QB. But there’s a bit of fantasy fool gold we need to filter out. Smith has surpassed 300 yards passing in a game three times this season, but it took averaging over 50 passing attempts to get there. Despite leading the league in passing attempts, he’s thrown multiple touchdowns just once. Since Week 6, he has had the second-most turnover-worthy throws (7) and ranks 23rd in completion percentage with 63.3%.
Smith’s rest-of-season schedule is brutal, with five of eight games among the worst DVOA-Adjusted Points Against matchups for quarterbacks, including the second (CHI), sixth (NYJ) and seventh (LAR) most difficult matchups. He’s likely off the streaming radar in 1QB, and someone I’d be looking to trade in superflex.
3. All Aboard the Tracy Train
From smoldering remains of the dumpster fire known as the New York Giants, Tyrone Tracy Jr. is salvaging fantasy relevance. The fifth-round rookie used a two-game absence from Devin Singletary to Wally Pipp the starting running back job from him. Since Singletary returned from his absence in Week 7, Tracy has played 61.9% of snaps and taken 60.5% of rushing attempts, compared to 28.6% of snaps and 28.6% of attempts for Singletary.
Over the past three games both players were active (Weeks 4, 7, 8), Tracy has been explosive, with 13.3% of his runs going for 10 yards or more. He’s bested Singletary in nearly every efficiency metric: open field yards per carry, yards after contact, yards before contact. He’s more than doubled his yards per carry, 5.7 to 2.5. Be aware Tracy suffered a concussion Monday night against the Steelers. Especially on a short week, there’s a high likelihood he misses Week 9. But the Giants backfield belongs to him.
4. Bills’ Receivers Thrive Despite Cooper’s Addition
Many considered the Bills’ acquisition of Amari Cooper a death sentence for the fantasy value of receivers Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir However, the duo hasn’t missed a beat, averaging roughly 17 points through two games with their new teammate.
Since the trade, both are inside the top 10 in yards per route run and expected points added (minimum 25 routes): Coleman seventh in YPRR (3.6) and second in EPA (16.01), Shakir 10th in YPRR (3.2) and seventh in EPA (12.74). As Cooper gets acclimated to the Bills offense, I do expect him to become more involved. But not at the expense of Coleman and Shakir’s fantasy production.
5. V for Vele-ndeta
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix‘s recent improved play has coincided with the fellow development of rookie Devaughn Vele. The Broncos’ receiver is second in receptions and third in targets over the Broncos’ past three games, leading the team in yards per target (10.5), yards per reception (15.8) and yards per route run (2.2). While Baltimore has been tough sledding for fantasy wide receivers, ranking as the seventh-toughest matchup, they’ve been quite generous to the quarterback position, ranking as the fifth-best matchup. So why Vele with Baltimore’s track record against wide receivers this season?
According to DVOA-APA, Baltimore is expected to allow 36% fewer fantasy points to WR1s, but that drops to just 8% less to WR2s and flips to a favorable matchup for WR3s of +13%.
Per our WR/CB Matchup tool, Vele will face off against the easiest matchup, slot corner Arthur Maulet. If you’re looking for a deep sleeper and Week 9 spot starter, Vele is an intriguing option.
6. Dobbins says “JK” on His RB1 Potential
After Week 2, I wrote that J.K. Dobbins was a sell-high due to unsustainable efficiency, among other things. Oddly enough, Dobbins had matching carry totals in his first four games compared to his last three.
Over the last three games, Dobbins’ explosive run rate, yards per carry and yards before contact have been virtually cut in half, per FTN StatsHub. His yards after contact have dropped by more than a yard per carry, and his open-field yards per carry plummeted from 4.1 to 1.3. Dobbins is still fantasy viable thanks to the volume he’s getting and involvement in the passing game (3-plus targets in all but two games), but he’s more of a volatile RB2 versus the borderline RB1 anticipated by any after his electric start to the season.
7. Bears Bargain with League Winning Potential
We’ve been spoiled in recent seasons by rookie wide receivers who come out of the gate strong, leading to fantasy managers bailing on talented players too soon. That’s what’s happening with Bears wideout Rome Odunze, and whether he’s dropped or someone you have to trade for, he should be on your radar.
Over Chicago’s past two games, Odunze leads the team in average depth of target with 19.3, nearly double the next highest on the team, Keenan Allen with 10.8. He leads Chicago receivers in yards per target and yards per route run and has just one fewer target than DJ Moore over that period. Like his quarterback Caleb Williams, Odunze’s production will be volatile, but I expect both to continue to improve, and few receivers offer Odunze’s upside for such an economical price tag.
8. Streaming TE
Are you in need of a tight-end streamer for this week? Although there are just two teams on bye, San Francisco and Pittsburgh have tight ends regarded as every-week starts (George Kittle is the TE1 this season). Using DVOA-APA, I’ve identified some potential streamers with favorable matchups and are widely available on waivers:
- Hunter Henry vs. Tennessee Titans
- Dalton Schultz vs. New York Jets
- Tyler Conklin vs. Houston Texans
- Juwan Johnson vs. Carolina Panthers (desperation play)
9. Wide Receiver Wonderland in Atlanta
While we’re discussing streamers, there are multiple receivers to choose from in the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons. Averaging 6.7 targets per game since Week 6, Darnell Mooney isn’t a “streamer” per se. But he’s not a must-start either. In leagues with shallow rosters or starting just two WRs, you can start him with confidence. Over that same period fellow Falcon Ray-Ray McCloud is averaging 3.7 targets per game, with Cowboys pass catchers KaVontae Turpin seeing 5.5 and Jalen Tolbert seeing 4.0. In a game with a predicted total over 50 and both defenses offering top 10 DVOA-APA matchups to QB and WR, if you’re looking for wide receiver help in Week 9, set your sights on Atown.
10. How to Profit from Bye Weeks and Desperation
We’re more than halfway through the fantasy regular season, and now is the time to take advantage of those teams whose season hangs in the balance over the next few weeks. Look at your league standings and scope out the rosters of those fighting for their playoff lives and try to acquire players potentially coming back from injury soon (Mike Evans, Isiah Pacheco, Nico Collins), on bye (Deebo Samuel Sr., Najee Harris), or simply underperforming (Jaylen Waddle, Jayden Reed). Use their fear of failing to reach the fantasy playoffs and feast on the value.
