Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There is always a flow of player movement during the NFL offseason. That is true in dynasty fantasy football offseason as well — it’s one of the reasons so many players enjoy this format. As we draw closer to the NFL Draft and your league’s rookie drafts, it’s time to start assessing your roster. The first step is to be honest with yourself and decide the state of your team.
Are you a “win now” team or a “rebuilding” one? This may sound simple, but it is harder than it looks. Once this step is addressed, we can move on to making some moves. Knowing what your team’s direction is can help you focus on certain players to target. Below is a list of five players to target in these trades for a “win now,” and then five to target for a team that is rebuilding.
5 ‘Win Now’ Players to Target
With so many solid veterans out there, picking only five is a hard task. However, taking into account player market values along with opportunity and talent we have compiled five players below who can help take your team to the next level.
Matt Ryan, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Hear me out on this one. Matt Ryan had 10 seasons in a row of 4,000-plus passing yards before falling to 3,968 last season. He also pairs this with a career 2:1 touchdown:interception ratio. Obviously, if you’re playing in a single-QB league, this is a move I would avoid. However, in most leagues that are 2QB or superflex, the Colts version of Matt Ryan — now behind one of the league’s best offensive lines and with a Jonathan Taylor-led running game that is near the top as well — could help you win your league. This offense will now be able to be balanced and allow Ryan to stand back and make the right decisions, while feeding the talented pass catchers led by Michael Pittman. A top-15 finish is certainly a possibility in 2022.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
Since entering the league in 2019, David Montgomery has done almost nothing but produce for his fantasy managers. Despite that, it feels like there is little in the way of positive fantasy vibes going in his direction. This is crazy, as he has one top-12 fantasy finish sandwiched between two top-24 seasons. In 2020, he finished as the PPR RB4 with 1,508 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns. He followed that up with 1,150 yards and 7 touchdowns in only 13 games in 2021. He has shown to be a top fantasy asset, and that holds true headed into 2022. He is still the lead guy for the Bears even though talented second-year player Khalil Herbert flashed at times last year. As the lead guy, Montgomery should see close to 300 touches in 2022, which means if he stays healthy a top-12 finish is well within reach.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Despite a down 2021 — in part due to injuries — DeAndre Hopkins should still be a hot trade target for win-now dynasty managers. That’s especially true since that aforementioned down year could make him more affordable. We saw the true potential of the pairing of Kyler Murray and Hopkins for a full season in 2020 — Hopkins finished as the WR4 in PPR with 287.8 points. Even prior to the injury last season, the connection was on point. It was only 10 games, but Hopkins averaged a whole yard more per reception than he did in 2020. Also, he already had 8 touchdowns when he went down, two more than the year prior. With a full offseason to heal and prepare for 2022, this connection will be back and better than ever. Adding Hopkins to your roster is the move that takes you from pretender to contender in a hurry.
A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
A.J. Brown is another top-12 wide receiver from 2020 who failed to repeat in 2021 due to injury. That dropped his market value in dynasty a bit, and rumors swirling that he could be traded made it drop a touch more. His 2021 was rough, by Brown’s standards, even absent the missed games. His yards per reception came in more than 2.0 below his career average. He had virtually the same number of targets in 2020 and 2021 (106 and 105, respectively), but more than 200 fewer yards last year. He scored 11 times in 2020, only 5 in 2021. However, a lot of this should be linked to the fact that even when he was on the field, he wasn’t healthy. As we look forward to 2022 after a full off season of rehabbing and training, we should expect to see the dominant A.J. Brown we grew so fond of in his first two years in the league. Add in the fact that the Titans still haven’t added a ton of weapons around him, and the results will be a large target share paired with a lot of production. Look out as a top-10 finish could be in the cards in 2022.
Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller was only able to play in 11 games in 2021, but he still saw 93 targets in that span. That led to a healthy 665 yards, but only 2 touchdowns, which kept his overall fantasy value in check. His work in the red zone was lacking in 2021, as teams were able to key in on him as the Raiders’ top weapon when in close. This year, that is all going to change. With the addition of Davante Adams to the Vegas offense, teams will now have another weapon to have to focus on. This will help open up the middle of the field for Waller. Derek Carr has leaned heavily on his highly athletic tight end for years; it makes sense he will do so again in 2022. Add in Josh McDaniels, who has always loved a big athletic tight end to feed, and we get the perfect storm for a potential bounceback season in 2022.
5 ‘Rebuild’ Players to Target
Now we turn our attention to five players who are great targets if you need a rebuild. These players will offer some production now but will help you for a multitude of years. Some of them may have not yet become true fantasy stars just yet.
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants
As a player who has failed to live up to his draft capital, good news has arrived. Daniel Jones now has a new head coach who has already produced an elite quarterback out of what many said was nothing in Brian Daboll, coming over from Buffalo. At 6-foot-5 and 221 pounds, Jones has a similar build as Josh Allen. He also possesses a strong arm and the ability to make plays with his legs. With quite a few picks in the early part of this year’s draft, offensive line help should be on the way for the Giants. With this and the talent that the Giants already possess at the skill positions, improvement should be coming. This year is huge toward whether the Giants decide whether to keep Jones, there is still hope for him. Adding this two-time top-24 finisher to your roster is a solid move in any 2QB or superflex format — if he can turn it around, he could offer a very high ceiling. Coming off a poor season, his market value makes him a great low-risk/high-reward buy in a rebuild.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
Even after a great year in 2021, Darnell Mooney is still very undervalued. He finished just outside the top 24 in PPR scoring in 2021, producing his first 1,000-yard season on 140 targets. He displayed a great ability to create separation and beat defenses over the top. He has already laid the groundwork with Justin Fields, and with Allen Robinson gone in free agency Mooney is the clear top receiver in the offense. To top it off, he’s only 24, so adding him to your dynasty roster should guarantee you many years of top-24 production. The best part about him is he is still very obtainable. Moving quickly to acquire him is recommended before we see a huge explosion this season.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
As a rookie last season, Rashod Bateman had to deal with injuries delaying his start to his NFL career. However, upon entering the lineup, he immediately started to draw a nice target share. He averaged just under 6 targets over his 12 games. That led to 11.2 yards per reception, and he became something of a first-down machine. He was held back (like most of the Ravens offense) by injuries around him. As we forecast his future, we see the Ravens getting healthier and Lamar Jackson returning to the starting role. Right now, Bateman is now the No. 3 option in the passing game behind Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, but he could supplant Brown at some point as a PPR asset. A career arc like that of a Tyler Boyd or Robert Woods seems plausible for him.
Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman is a player who still is not talked about enough after breaking out and finishing as the WR19 in 2021. He topped 100 yards while seeing 129 targets and scoring 6 touchdowns. It was clear he had become the top option in the Colts passing attack. Now with a more accurate quarterback who has produced multiple top fantasy wide receivers, we should expect similar results. Matt Ryan loved Julio Jones, who was a big-bodied receiver who would go up and get the contested catches. This is what Pittman does best. Ryan is not the quarterback of the future, but we should see Pittman improve again in 2022 only helping supplant him into the top dynasty wide receivers for the next five years or more. So, get ahead of the game and buy in now before it’s too late.
Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks
After getting moved to Seattle in a deal that sent Russell Wilson to Denver, many people are down on Noah Fant. However, we should not be. He has one of the best athletic profiles in the league at the position. Add in an offensive scheme that has been dying to have a tight end this good in years. When Jimmy Graham was a Seahawk, this offense regularly ran through him in the red zone. If in fact the rumors are true, and DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett may be on the move, this opens up a large portion of the target share. If Drew Lock gets the starting job, you can expect him to rely on his old friend from Denver heavily. Like most tight ends, Fant should only improve with time. Finishing as a top-12 tight end for most of his career is a likely situation for him.
