Randle Roundup: NBA Betting Trends of the Week (10/28)

It’s been an incredible start to the NBA season.

Most teams have accumulated four or five games of data, good enough to notice some important betting trends.

Every Friday, I’ll provide NBA betting insight from the prior week’s slate of games. I’ll select trends, tidbits and observations that will be useful in the NBA betting market moving forward.

Let’s take a deep dive into some actionable information from the first full week of the 2022-2023 NBA season.

Sides and Totals

There is only one undefeated team against the spread: the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks started perfect 3-0 against their opponents and the number, covering by an average of 6.8 points per game.
The surprise teams to start the season have been the Portland Trail Blazers (4-1, 4-1 ATS) and Oklahoma City Thunder (2-3, 4-1 ATS).
There are three winless teams in the NBA: Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers. Only the Lakers (0-4) are winless against the spread.
Golden State, New Orleans, Memphis and Charlotte are a combined 15-0-1 to the Over this season.
The Los Angeles Clippers, Lakers and Washington Wizards are a combined 3-10 to the Under.
Last season, the Brooklyn Nets were the second-worst team ATS, finishing with a record of 33-52-2 (38.8%). This season, they have started out 1-4 ATS, with their only cover coming as a 2.5-point home favorite to Toronto last Friday.
Don’t confuse pace with over/unders. Per John Hollinger of ESPN, the five fastest NBA teams are Golden State, the Lakers, Indiana, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. While Golden State is a perfect 4-0 to the over, the other four teams have gone just 8-11 to the over this season.
The Bucks defense is at a different level this season. Milwaukee is allowing just 97.3 PPG through three games. No NBA team has allowed less than 100 PPG since the 2016-2017 season (Utah 97.5 PPG, San Antonio 99.4 PPG).

Memphis Grizzlies

Ja Morant is off to a fantastic start. Entering Thursday’s game at Sacramento, Morant was averaging 35.3 PPG in three of his first four games. The only game he was short was the Grizzlies 137-96 blowout loss at Dallas, when the Mavericks shot a blistering 43.6% (17 of 39) from beyond the arc. If you project the game to be close, it’s always worth betting the over on Morant’s points prop.
Morant’s 3PM prop hangs around 1.5, but the juice is climbing. He has always hovered around 33% from deep in his career, but it is worth noting he raised his 3PM per game in each of his first three seasons: 0.9, 1.2, 1.5. Including Thursday’s game, Morant is shooting 56.5% from beyond the arc.
It appears the real Desmond Bane is back. He shot just 13 of 49 (26.5%) from the floor in his first three games, including 8-of-28 (28.6%) from deep. However, Bane has been on absolute fire in the last two matchups, posting 38 and 31 points, while shooting 74% (14 of 19) from deep.
The question of who would benefit from Jaren Jackson’s absence has been answered by second-year forward Santi Aldama. The 21-year-old is averaging over 30 minutes per game, and posting 11 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.4 steals/blocks per contest. Even after last night’s poor performance (four points), he still is a player that is worth Over attention.
Don’t forget about 29-year-old Steven Adams on the rebound prop. Excluding the blowout loss at Dallas, he has averaged 11.5 RPG in the other four matchups. His prop continues to rise and was at 10.5 Thursday but still received +105 value. Adams hit the over with 11 rebounds.
I usually fade Dillon Brooks and will look to continue to do so with his return from thigh soreness. Brooks made his debut against the Nets on Monday and only produced four points in 24 minutes. Thursday against the Kings, Brooks scored just 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting. His prop last night was 15.5 points, but he did hit his over two 3PM at -110. Brooks gets into foul trouble easily and struggles to score on anything except deep shots. He tallied five or more fouls in four of the Grizzlies last eight playoff games.

Golden State Warriors

Andrew Wiggins has taken his game to a different level this season. He is averaging 20.8 PPG, his highest total in our season with the Warriors. His 6.3 RPG and 2.0 SPG are also career-highs. Wiggins again beat his points prop Thursday (17.5), now cresting this number in four of the first five games. Vegas continues to keep his 3PM prop at 1.5, despite the fact that Wiggins has beaten this number in every game this season. The juice last night was high at -187, but I am waiting for the o2 prop to arrive.
I love attacking Klay Thompson under rebounds + assists props. Since he is returning from injury, Thompson is only seeing about 22 MPG. This number usually falls around 5.5, and Thompson has gone below this mark in three of his five games this season.
Stephen Curry is always a threat for a big-scoring night, but his rebounding prop is also becoming lucrative. Curry is averaging exactly six rebounds per game and the number usually hovers around 5.5 rebounds. Last night the line was exactly five rebounds, with the juice to the juice actually to the under.

Atlanta Hawks

How will Trae Young’s production be affected by Dejounte Murray? Let’s take a look through four games:
- Young last season: 28.4 PPG, 9.7 APG, 7.3 FTA, 3.1 3PM
- Young this season: 27.8 PPG, 10.3 APG, 10.3 FTA, 2.0 3PM
Young’s assists have risen, and his free throw attempts have skyrocketed. With Murray’s presence, teams are less likely to collapse on Young, allowing more driving lanes. Young’s PPG has risen in each of the four contests, hitting a season-high 35 points on Wednesday at Detroit. His disappointing 22.9% from 3P will certainly improve, putting some huge scoring nights clearly on the horizon.
It is also worth noting the change in Murray’s production:
- Murray last season: 21.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 9.2 APG, 2.3 stocks per game
- Murray this season: 18.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 8.3 APG, 4.0 stocks per game
Murray’s last steals + blocks prop was only 2.5, with +115 to the over. Definitely worth an investment if it remains at plus-money.
Forward John Collins has also seen an impressive start to the season. The 25-year-old power forward has posted 19 PPG, 10.5 RPG and an incredible 3.8 steals/blocks per contest. He is also averaging 36 MPG, highest in his six-year career.
The biggest dropoff for the Hawks has come from center Clint Capela. He is down four points and three rebounds per game, despite playing the exact same number of minutes. He has hit double-digit rebounds in each of the last two games, but that was against two weak interior teams in Detroit and Charlotte.

Orlando Magic

It’s been an incredible start for Orlando rookie Paolo Banchero. He has beaten his points prop in all five games, including last Saturday against Boston where he started 0-5 from 3P range. His prop tonight is at a season-high 23.5 points against Detroit, a team he scored 27 points against on opening night.
Third-year guard Cole Anthony is seeing major minutes but continues to battle injuries. He was diagnosed Thursday with a right oblique muscle injury after posting just nine points, six rebounds, and five assists in a 103-92 loss at Cleveland Wednesday night. When Anthony is fully healthy, he has a nightly 20-point upside. However, if he misses, the Magic’s offense is crippled. With Jalen Suggs out (ankle sprain), Anthony’s absence would trigger more scoring opportunities for Banchero and Franz Wagner (22/5/5 Wednesday).

Detroit Pistons

Pour one out for Isaiah Stewart. Detroit’s 6-foot-9 center finally missed his Over 0.3 3PM prop, going 0-4 in Wednesday’s loss at Atlanta. Vegas had started to buy-in on Stewart, offering +150 on the under against the Hawks. Friday? The Over 0.5 3PM is at -182. Stewart has hit the over in four of his last five home games dating back to last year and is shooting 4.4 attempts per contest.
Bojan Bogdanovic has been superb for the Pistons to start the season. He leads Detroit with 23.2 PPG, while shooting 51.2% from 3P on a whopping 8.2 3PA. Bogdanovic is averaging 29 PPG, including 24 and 33 points in Detroit’s two home contests. The 33-year-old veteran has hit four or more 3Ps in four of the Pistons five games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The addition of center Rudy Gobert has affected Karl-Anthony Towns in interesting ways. Towns has experienced a four-point drop in points per game, and 2.4 decrease in rebounds per game, but a 1.6 increase in assists per night. Vegas has responded by making his assists prop 4.5 tonight, offering +110 to the over. Against a Lakers team that allows the seventh-fewest points to opposing power forwards, I’ll be fading Towns.
Anthony Edwards is starting to heat up, posting 30 or more points in three of the last four games. He’ll face a Lakers team that he has hit 27 or more points against in three of the last five matchups. His 23.5 Points Prop at -115 is enticing at home.

Portland Trail Blazers

With Damian Lillard out one to two weeks with a calf injury, fire up Anfernee Simons at home against Houston. He has beaten Friday’s 23.5-point prop in six of the last eight without Lillard, hitting 30 points or more four times.
Also give consideration to Jerami Grant, who has a points prop hovering around 19.5. Grant is seeing almost 35 minutes per game and beat this number twice this season despite only averaging 10.4 shots per game. That should certainly go up here against the Rockets.

Phoenix Suns

You would need to give me a very good reason to fade Devin Booker against the Pelicans. Booker is playing 38.5 MPG and averaging 32.5 PPG, while shooting 48% from deep. The Suns play a Pelicans team that has already ruled out Brandon Ingram and has a questionable tag on CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson and Herb Jones. As long as this game stays close, Booker should be the center of the Suns’ offensive attack.
Chris Paul has gotten off to a slow scoring start, but he historically loves playing the Pelicans. Paul has averaged 17.3 APG in his last three meetings with New Orleans and averaged 11.3 APG in the six-game series against the Pelicans in last year’s playoffs. His assist prop Friday tonight sits at an enticing 9.5.