NBA Game of the Day, 2/26: Spurs vs. Rockets

The NBA has nine games for us to enjoy Wednesday. The night starts with some fun Eastern Conference matchups. Will the Boston Celtics continue to remind us of how good they can be, or will the Detroit Pistons get a win that would bring them to the brink of hosting a playoff series? Can the Philadelphia 76ers possibly be even worse, or is a matchup against a struggling New York Knicks’ defense be just what the doctor ordered?

There are also a few interconference games, which always give us an interesting mesh of styles and questionable motivation, since wins are less impactful to playoff seeding. There should be some plenty of good basketball for us to watch, but the best game to bet is the nightcap on ESPN between the San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets. Here are my thoughts on each team and my best bets for the night.

NBA Game of the Day: San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets

Current Line – Rockets -9, 227.5
My Projection – Rockets 116, Spurs 108
Key Injuries – Victor Wembanyama, Fred VanVleet and Tari Eason are out.

San Antonio Spurs Team Total Under 109.5

(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Houston Rockets Team Total Under 118.5

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Spurs are in store for a rough end to their season. Without Victor Wembanyama (who is out until next year), there is not enough talent to get this team to the playoffs. They’ve had to start Bismack Biyombo the last four games, his first starting gig on any team since 2023. With all due respect to a professional athlete, you don’t want to be starting Bismack Biyombo in 2025. They have some interesting guards and wings, but De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell can’t carry this squad to glory, especially given how difficult the schedule looks the rest of the way. To make thing even more difficult, they played in New Orleans Tuesday night, and all the starters exceeded their average minutes played. With their best players fatigued and the guys behind them not very good, I’m projecting the Spurs to have a bad night. San Antonio’s team total has gone under in six of their nine back-to-back spots this season and opponents have generally struggled to score in Houston all season. Give me their team total under at 109.5.

This is a very winnable game for the Rockets, but they are also playing their second game in two nights. Without Fred VanVleet, the Rockets have seen a drop in their level, but there is still more than enough talent on this roster to beat the Spurs, especially since they don’t have a good center. Alperen Şengün is more of a forward despite being Houston’s starting center and he has trouble against teams with good big men. The Rockets probably have four of the five best players who will be on the floor. The fly in the ointment is the aforementioned back-to-back spot. Houston is 4-7-1 against the spread playing the second night in a row and their team total has gone under nine of those games. They’ve been able to win games in this situation, but it’s been at a much slower pace and without a big margin. Their team total currently sits at 118.5, which is a few points higher than I have them projected. I’m going to take their team total under as well.

Of course, you’re probably think to yourself, “Why not just take the full game total to go under 227.5?” That’s a perfectly fine question, and I think betting the full game under is a good bet, but that the team total unders are better bets. This game could be a blowout win and that tends to be a better environment for overs when it comes to the total. When I look at all the possible permutations, if the game goes over, I still have one of the two teams going under their team total. That means taking both team totals is more likely to land 1-1 or even 2-0 than they are to go 0-2, whereas taking the full game total only offers a chance to go 1-0 or 0-1. I think taking both team total unders gives a much better chance to win or push and a lower chance of flat out losing.

Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this game and there is one in particular I like a lot.

Jalen Green Under 0.5 Steals

(+124, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I love betting under 0.5 props. Whether it be steals, blocks or made threes, I find the bookmakers struggle to set these lines. It seems to me that they are creating these lines by looking at game averages instead of looking at how many games these props actually go over 0.5. A player that averages a steal a game doesn’t necessarily have a steal in every game. Often, you find that these guys have two or more steals in a game then go a few games without one. Of course, you lose your under 0.5 bet in that one game, but win it in those other games. Jalen Green is a perfect example of this because although he averages close to a steal a game, he only gets a steal in about one of every three games. Our model at FTN projects him to have 0.5 steals and would price this at deeper than -160 giving us an expected value of over 40%.

You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.