Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NBA season is winding down, but there is still plenty of DFS action. Wednesday offers a nice nine-game slate around the league that has a nice combination of superstars, mid-range plays and value options to help build your lineups.
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Celtics @ Magic preview
BOS -11, total: 218.5
Boston got a scare last game when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown collided with each other and left the game. Fortunately for the Celtics, Tatum won’t miss any time, and while Brown has been ruled out for Wednesday’s game, the injury appears to be of the short-term variety. Of course, his absence makes Boston a lot more appealing for fantasy, as Tatum is sporting a 35.3% usage rate with Brown off the floor this season, while averaging 1.39 fantasy points per minute in the split. There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as Orlando is a bottom-five team in defensive rating over the last 20 games, while they also are allowing the third-most points per possession off isolation this season (0.99). Tatum, meanwhile, is averaging 3.8 isolation points per game on the year, good for the 11th-most in the NBA, while his 18.4% frequency rate off the play type is top-10 in the league. Kemba Walker, meanwhile, is also sporting a 30% usage rate with Brown off the floor and has scored at least 45 fantasy points in three of his last five games. Orlando also ranks 22nd against dimers and 24th against scorers on the year, per our advanced DvP tool. Then there is Evan Fournier, who has been mostly bad since joining the Celtics but definitely gets a boost with Brown out and is at an affordable $5,300 price tag on DraftKings. Finally, Robert Williams has upside at $5,400, as he’s averaging 1.20 fantasy points per minute with Brown off the court this season.
For Orlando, Mo Bamba is coming off a career game, scoring 22 points to go along with 15 rebounds. Though he didn’t start the game, he did close it, as Wendell Carter failed to see the floor the entire fourth quarter. It is still risky to use either center on this slate but Bamba has shown serious upside when he gets the minutes. Speaking of minutes, Moritz Wagner is logging a ton of them as of late, as the Magic have been without Terrence Ross, Chuma Okeke, James Ennis and Otto Porter. Wagner has played 28, 34 and 41 minutes over the last three games and would remain a viable option if all of Orlando’s wings remain sidelined.
Trail Blazers @ Cavaliers preview
POR -11.5, total: 229
For the second consecutive game, I really like the price tags for both Damian Lillard ($9,400) and CJ McCollum ($8,000) on DraftKings. Lillard has scored at least 53 fantasy points in each of his last three games and now he faces a Cavaliers defense that is allowing the most points per possession to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll (0.94), as well as the highest field goal percentage off the play type (46.6%). That bodes very well for Lillard, who is averaging 12.8 points per game as the primary ball handler out of the pick and roll, good for the third-most in the NBA. Outside of the two ball-dominant guards, I think Robert Covington will provide a solid floor at $5,100, especially if Norman Powell can’t play with a knee injury. And if that is the case, Carmelo Anthony becomes an interesting play at $3,900 on DK. Cleveland is allowing a 45.3% field goal percentage off all mid-range shots this year, the second-worst mark in the league, while 52% of Anthony’s field goal attempts have come from that part of the floor this year.
Cleveland, meanwhile, is on the second end of a back-to-back. The Cavs have been without Darius Garland the last two games and it is looking like he could sit out again Wednesday. If that is the case, you definitely feel better about Collin Sexton, who is sporting a 31% usage rate with Garland off the floor this season. He’s been very good over the last two games, while averaging over 100 touches per game during that span. A matchup with Portland is a favorable one, as they rank 28th against primary ball handlers and 27th against scorers, per advanced DVP. Meanwhile, Cedi Osman has been playing huge minutes in Garland’s absence and would be a solid mid-range play if he remains sidelined again. Rookie Isaac Okoro is coming off a career-high 32 points and has been much better down the stretch. He would be a viable option again if Garland doesn’t return.
76ers @ Rockets preview
PHI -13, total: 223
This is an elite matchup for seemingly everyone on the 76ers. The issue, however, is that the Rockets need to keep this game close for these players to realize their full potential for fantasy. Of course, Joel Embiid should do whatever he wants against a team that is coughing up the third-most post-up points per game on the year (6.5), while no player in basketball is averaging more points per game from the post than Embiid (10.0). Meanwhile, both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are very cheap and face a Houston team that is surrendering a league-worst 24.3 transition points per game. Simmons is sporting a 28.3% frequency rate in transition (fifth-highest), while Harris is averaging a healthy 4.1 points per game off the play type.
Houston, on the other hand, isn’t really on my radar. Kevin Porter, Kelly Olynyk and Christian Wood are all pretty much priced at their ceilings, while this is one of the worst matchups in fantasy. Olynyk has been fantastic since joining the Rockets, averaging nearly 1.3 fantasy points per minute. If choosing someone from this Rockets team tonight, it would be Olynyk.
Suns @ Hawks preview
PHO -1.5, total: 228
Trae Young has played three games since returning from his ankle injury. During that stretch, he is averaging nearly nine minutes of possession per game, while sporting a usage rate of 34.8%. A matchup with the Suns certainly isn’t the best but Young is matchup-proof, while $9,600 on DK is still more than fair of a price tag. Meanwhile, Danilo Gallinari got hot from the field last game, which led to him seeing 32 minutes, his most in a game since April 1. If he doesn’t shoot 7-for-10 from beyond the arc again, it is possible his minutes drop back down to the 22-24 range, though with Atlanta still missing De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, Gallinari can be used as a tournament option.
The Suns are coming off the front end of a back-to-back where both Devin Booker and Chris Paul put together strong games. Both are fine plays again tonight, especially Paul at just $7,500 on DK. Atlanta is inside the bottom-10 against dimers on the season, while Trae Young is not exactly known for his stellar defensive play.
Kings @ Pacers preview
IND -6.5, total: 239
Domantas Sabonis has been back in the Indiana lineup for two games, dominating during that span. In those two outings, Sabonis has eclipsed 70 fantasy points twice, averaging 105 touches per game. He’s recorded 19 and 19 rebounds in the two games, averaging an absurd 28 rebounding chances per game during that stretch. If Malcolm Brogdon remains out, you feel even better about spending $10,600 for Sabonis but even if he plays, Sabonis remains a strong option, even at that elevated price tag. Sacramento is allowing the most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll this season (1.30), while Sabonis is averaging 4.0 points per game as the roll man. Meanwhile, in Brogdon’s absence last game, TJ McConnell got back over 30 minutes, scoring 40.75 fantasy points. He is still averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute with Brogdon off the floor this year, while also posting a strong 29% assist rate. And if Brogdon remains out, Caris LeVert remains in play at his elevated price, as he’s sporting a 28% usage rate with the Pacers point guard off the court. He is averaging 19 shot attempts per game over his last six.
The Kings remain banged up, too, as they were without De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton Tuesday night. If both remain out, Buddy Hield and Delon Wright will remain firmly in play. Wright entered the starting lineup and is averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute with both players off the court this season, while also posting a solid 19% assist rate and 22.4% usage rate. Marvin Bagley could also be worth a look in tournaments, as he’s been starting the last two games and is always a high-usage player when on the floor.
Grizzlies @ Timberwolves preview
MEM -3, total: 238
This is a tremendous spot for Karl-Anthony Towns, who is coming off a great game. He faces a Memphis team that is surrendering the most points per possession to the post this season (1.09), as well as the highest field goal percentage (55%). Towns, meanwhile, is averaging 4.5 post-up points per game on the year, good for the fifth-most in all of basketball. I also think that D'Angelo Russell remains in play in tournaments at $7,000. He continues to come off the bench, but the usage is hovering around the 30% mark as of late, while he’s attempting a ton of shots. Over his last three games, he is an ugly 3-of-25 from beyond the arc and if he starts connecting on them, look out. Ricky Rubio might even be worth a look at $4,500, as he’s logged 31 and 32 minutes over the last two games, scoring 49.0 and 37.2 fantasy points during that span.
For Memphis, Jaren Jackson will sit out for injury management reasons. His absence will open more minutes for players like Brandon Clarke and Justise Winslow but not enough to consider them for fantasy. Per usual, my favorite player from the Grizzlies is Jonas Valanciunas, who faces a Minnesota team that is allowing the second-most post-up points per game on the season (6.6), as well as the third-most points per possession (1.03). Ja Morant, meanwhile, still remains a bit too expensive for me.
Wizards @ Bucks preview
MIL -3, total: 240.5
Milwaukee is coming off the front end of a back-to-back, so just make sure no one rests. If everyone is active, this game should feature plenty of points, as it features two of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. Giannis Antetokounmpo gets to face a Washington team that is surrendering the seventh-most transition points per game (20.5), while Giannis still leads the league in that department, averaging 8.4 such points per game. Meanwhile, this matchup is so good and Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have both been strong as of late, keeping them both in play at their fair price tags.
For Washington, Russell Westbrook could average zero points, rebounds and assists for the remainder of the year and still average a triple-double for the season. He’s been amazing, coming off a game where he hauled in a career-high 21 rebounds to go along with a career-best 24 assists. The Wizards are playing good basketball right now led by Westbrook, who is honestly a bit too cheap tonight, even at $11,000 on DK. Meanwhile, Bradley Beal is a very fine play at his fair price tag, while Davis Bertans could be a sneaky value play at $3,600 on DK. He’s logged 26 and 27 minutes over the last two games and faces a Bucks team that is actually allowing the most points per possession to spot-up shooters this season (1.13). Bertans, meanwhile, is averaging 8.2 points per game off catch-and-shoot opportunities, good for the third-most in the NBA.
Spurs @ Jazz preview
UTA -6.5, total: 218
Once again, no Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley for the Jazz, which keeps both Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles in consideration. I still prefer Ingles, who is cheaper and offers the same floor as Clarkson, though the latter still presents a massive ceiling. We have also seen Bojan Bogdanovic take on a larger role as of late, attempting 22 and 17 shots over his last two games. With Conley and Mitchell off the floor this season, his usage rate jumps to a strong 28% clip, while averaging a fantasy point per minute in the split. He’s scored at least 20 real points in each of his last four games. And of course, Rudy Gobert will continue to provide a strong floor due to his rebounding, but he has a higher ceiling with more offensive touches headed his way.
For San Antonio, no one stands out as elite options. Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan should both remain high-floor options, especially with the Spurs missing Derrick White in their backcourt. Devin Vassell has logged 23 and 24 minutes over the last two games, perhaps making him a value option in tournaments at just $3,300 on DraftKings.
Knicks @ Nuggets preview
DEN -3.5, total: 215
Nikola Jokic is in play every single slate. But the rest of Denver is a bit more interesting. Already without Jamal Murray, Monte Morris and Will Barton, now Denver has ruled out PJ Dozier, which will open up even more minutes for Austin Rivers, who logged 33 minutes last game. He makes sense as a strong value option against his former team, while Michael Porter continues to flirt with 40 minutes every single night, which is really the only number that matters.
For New York, Julius Randle is also always in play, as he still ranks inside the top-12 in both touches and rebounding chances per game. He should find success against this weak Denver frontcourt but don’t overlook what Derrick Rose is doing right now, as the veteran is averaging 33.1 fantasy points per game over his last four outings. While still coming off the bench, Rose has logged at least 27 minutes in seven of his last 10 games. Rose is averaging 12 drives and seven points per game off drives this season, so look for him to succeed against a Denver team that is allowing the highest field goal percentage in all of basketball at the rim.
