NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for May 13

As the NBA regular season draws to a close, it gets more and more important to account for teams’ motivations when breaking down the DFS slate. With nine games on tap for Thursday’s main slate, I have also included (in bold) the playoff probabilities for each team’s seeding via Basketball-Reference to help gauge how to approach each team.

As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.

Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker. 

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Clippers at Hornets preview

LAC -8, total: 232

As it stands right now, the Clippers have a 63.8% chance to finish as the No. 3 seed, and the Hornets have a 91.5% chance to finish as either the No. 8 or No. 9 seed (58.9% for No. 8).

Based on this, the Clippers may have little motivation to push their starters, whereas the Hornets have a bit more depending on who they’d rather face within the play-in tournament. 

On the Clippers’ side, both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George certainly carry upside in tournaments, but there’s a high chance that they aren’t pushed into a full workload, which gives them a heap of risk, especially if this game gets out of hand. For under $9,000, both are worth a shot in tournaments, but I have no interest in cash or single-entry contests. Ivica Zubac saw 30 minutes last game, but with the Hornets running a lot of small-ball lineups, I have a hard time trusting that to repeat in this game. This team as a whole is rather unappealing on this slate.

The Hornets have extra motivation to win here, as remaining in the No. 8 seed would allow them into the playoffs with only one play-in win, rather than having to win twice. Their odds for the No. 8 seed are not low enough where this is a must-win game, but padding their standings never hurts. LaMelo Ball had a poor game from the field Tuesday, shooting 1-9, but was able to rack up 19 total rebounds/assists, showcasing a stable floor. For $8,500, he’s in play. Based on price, Terry Rozier is also a great tournament play. Even since Ball’s return, he’s posted a 26.3% usage rate, 19.7% assist rate, and 1.11 DKP/min. He carries immense upside for $7,700.

The return of Devonte' Graham provides the Hornets with another offensive weapon and while he had a massive game on Tuesday, I’m still OK passing on his $5,900 price tag off the bench. I’d even rather get up to P.J. Washington at $7,400 given his minutes security and ceiling that comes along with it. Malik Monk at $3,800 is the only other play that intrigues me, as he’s posted both assist and usage rates over 20% since returning, but his inefficiency from the field has caused him to log only 0.82 DKP/min in that stretch. With potential progression on the horizon, he’s a viable value if absolutely needed, as he should still see around 20-22 minutes even with Graham back.

Bucks at Pacers preview

MIL -8.5, total: 240.5

The Bucks currently have an 86.1% chance to finish as the No. 3 seed in the East, with the Pacers holding a 98.6% chance to finish between No. 8 and No. 10. Both teams are essentially locked into their postseason positions, with the only ambiguity being which specific seed the Pacers lock up, so this feels like a must-win for the Pacers if they want to avoid an extensive play-in tournament path.

The Bucks starters are all candidates for rest on every slate at this point in the season, but with no word of it at the time of writing, I’ll approach it as normal. The 8.5-point spread doesn’t worry me in terms of a blowout because of how bad the Bucks have been defensively, making Giannis Antetokounmpo one of my favorite plays on the slate if he suits up. The Pacers’ defense has been atrocious for the back half of the season and with no Myles Turner in the post, he should get whatever he wants at the rim. If not playing Giannis, you don’t need to hedge with Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton, but they would both be equally strong plays.

Donte DiVincenzo is the other starter here that I have an interest in. He’s topped 27 DK points in five straight games, making at least three three-pointers in four of the five, giving him some nice upside for $5,400. If the starters rest, we already know to look to the deep bench guys in Jordan Nwora, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Jeff Teague and so on.

With Malcolm Brogdon already ruled out, Domantas Sabonis should look to continue his torrid stretch, averaging 24.6 points, 15.0 rebounds, 11.0 assists and 2.3 steals/blocks per game over the last seven games. He’s essentially been the frontcourt version of Russell Westbrook, making him one of the top plays on the entire slate at $10,700. Caris LeVert is a great pivot off Sabonis for $1,800 less, as he carries 50-DK-point upside, but should draw a difficult matchup with Jrue Holiday defensively. Both are elite plays given the nature and importance of this game. You can also fill your roster with the value pieces in Doug McDermott, T.J. McConnell and Justin Holiday here, as they should all get significant playing time with so many injuries here.

Magic at Hawks preview

ATL -12.5, total: 227.5

The Hawks have a 63.9% chance to finish as the No. 4 seed in the East, while the Magic have been eliminated from contention and sit 0.5 games back of the Thunder for a top-three odds position in the lottery.

This game is an unappealing one, as both teams have essentially secured their fate with the exception of the Magic likely trying to lose to get a top-three draft spot. Because of the exploitable matchup and low prices, I don’t mind getting to Trae Young and Clint Capela (more so on FanDuel), but the rest of this Hawks team feels unnecessary on a full nine-game slate and on the second leg of a back-to-back.

For the Magic, the minutes for the starters have been rather inconsistent, as Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter saw over 30 minutes last game after not topping that mark in the few games beforehand. Of the two, Anthony is a fine GPP play simply due to the individual matchup with Trae Young. I will have more interest in this team if Mo Bamba is ruled out, as that would once again force Carter into heavier minutes and make Moritz Wagner a bit more appealing given his volume. R.J. Hampton is also a viable tournament play, as he’s averaged 16.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game since May 1.

Sixers at Heat preview

PHI -1.5, total: 218

While this game consists of a pair of playoff teams, it doesn’t carry a ton of weight for Philly, as the Sixers have a 99.5% chance to finish as the No. 1 seed in the East. With that said, this is a big game for the Heat, as Miami has a 41.5% chance to finish at No. 5 and a 55.4% chance to finish at No. 6. Obviously, they would much prefer to move up and avoid Milwaukee in the first round, so they’re going to try to win this game.

Joel Embiid is questionable after sitting out last game. If he were to miss again, we can easily default to Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and Dwight Howard as the priorities, despite a difficult matchup. Of the three, Howard would still be my priority in cash games even after a dud, as they’ll need his size against this Heat team even though he likely won’t start. Simmons and Harris are both high-upside plays at their sub-$8,000 price tags, with Simmons being my preference on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

For the Heat, Jimmy Butler is currently listed as questionable with an eye issue. If he is unable to suit up, that would make Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro two of my priority plays in a game that the Heat want to win. Herro finally broke through last game in 35 minutes, posting a 24-point, 11-rebound double-double, and could be entering the playoff mode we saw last season. If Butler is active, he makes for a great option and while Herro and Adebayo would not be priorities, they would still be strong plays.

If Butler is out, that would also heighten the ceilings of Duncan Robinson, Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn as well.

Spurs at Knicks preview

NYK -5, total: 216.5

The Knicks clinched their first playoff berth in years but have a wide range of outcomes as to where they could land. As of now, the Knicks have a 41.9% chance to finish as the No. 6 seed, 32.9% chance to finish as the No. 4 seed, and a 25.2% chance to finish as the No. 5 seed. Obviously, they’ll be gunning to move up into the 4/5 matchup. The Spurs are rather locked into their spot, as San Antonio has a 99.4% chance to finish as the No. 10 seed.

While there are implications on the line here for the Knicks, the game, in general, is still somewhat unappealing for DFS. If targeting Knicks, it makes sense to stick to the high usage options in Julius Randle and Derrick Rose off the bench. RJ Barrett is also a fine play given his price, especially at a thin small-forward position on FanDuel.

For the Spurs, this is the second leg of a back-to-back and with their seeding virtually locked up, it would not be crazy to see anyone rest. Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan remain fine options if active, but if they rest, we can look to Patty Mills, Lonnie Walker and Devin Vassell. Jakob Poeltl is also super cheap ($5,400 on DraftKings) and should see his normal 28-32 minutes in a matchup with a more traditional center in Nerlens Noel. He certainly carries a lot of upside at his price, making him an intriguing dart in tournaments.

Kings at Grizzlies preview

MEM -7.5, total: 230.5

This game feels like a rather irrelevant one from a playoff/seeding standpoint, as the Kings have less than a 1% chance at catching the No. 10 seed and the Grizzlies have a 71% chance to finish as the No. 9 seed.

The Kings are expected to be without De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton once again, making Delon Wright a fine play at $8,100. It doesn’t feel great at his price, but he’s quietly ranked top-15 in the NBA in touches per game since Haliburton went down and has only dropped below 39 DK points once over his last five games. With both Harrison Barnes and Marvin Bagley doubtful, Chimezie Metu and Maurice Harkless should see more minutes, with Metu being my preferred option for $500 less. Buddy Hield is also a fine play, but his $7,900 price tag doesn’t leave you a ton of wiggle room. 

For the Grizzlies, this is a very exploitable matchup, even if they don’t have much to play for. Ja Morant for $8,200 is a great tournament play while getting Jaren Jackson and his massive usage rate since coming back (26.5%, 1.23 DKP/min). His stock will go even higher if Jonas Valanciunas can’t suit up, as would Xavier Tillman’s.

Raptors at Bulls preview

CHI -9.5, total: 218.5

Neither teams have much of anything to play for, as they’re not far enough down the standings to fight for a top-three position in the 2021 draft, while the Raptors have officially been eliminated from the playoffs and the Bulls have less than a 1% chance at catching the No. 10 seed.

Toronto is resting their entire starting five, leaving Malachi Flynn and Gary Trent as the captains on offense. While they were somewhat disappointing in this same scenario, their respective $5,700 and $6,000 prices in this matchup put them firmly in play in single-entry tournaments, even though they aren’t priorities. My favorite play from the Raptors, once again, is Jalen Harris. Over his last two games, he’s averaged 27 minutes per game and has topped 21 DK points in each, a target that’s more than enough for a $3,800 price tag. With only eight active players, it’ll be hard for him not to get a massive amount of playing time. Just about everyone else on the Raptors is also viable in some sense, outside of Stanley Johnson, who has been a -EV play for the entirety of his career. 

This makes this an appealing matchup for the Bulls as well, as they’ll essentially playing a G-League team. Both Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine are elite tournament options given the projected low ownership, but they’re still a bit risky in cash and single-entry tournaments given the fact that the Bulls don’t have much motivation here. Coby White would be the only other tournament consideration here, as the return of LaVine has not taken away his massive upside, having played 30 or more minutes in nine of his last 10 games.

Nuggets at Timberwolves preview

DEN -6, total: 235.5

The Nuggets have a 77.9% chance to finish as the No. 4 seed and the Minnesota Timberwolves are 1.5-games back of a top-three draft position. While the Wolves are still within striking distance of the tank-a-thon title, they’ll be hard-pressed to catch teams like the Thunder, Rockets and Pistons, making this game a rather meaningless one.

Even with it being an unimportant game, the matchup can’t get much better for Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter. The latter remains far too cheap on FanDuel at $7,400, which should drive his ownership through the roof like it did last slate (over 40% in large-field tournaments). Jokic is a strong play as well, but in terms of spend-ups, he’s not my priority. The return of Monte Morris last game ate into the minutes of Austin Rivers a bit, but with Morris questionable due to injury management, Rivers and Facundo Campazzo are viable once again. Even if Morris plays, it would be in an incredibly limited fashion. 

The Nuggets are one of the worst teams defensively around the basket, allowing the highest field-goal percentage in the NBA in the restricted area (68.4%), making Karl-Anthony Towns a worthwhile GPP play. I wouldn’t feel safe with him in single-entry or cash formats, however, simply due to the fact that they have nothing to play for. The same can be said for both D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards. 

Blazers at Suns preview

PHO -5.5, total: 232.5

Both teams are locked into the playoffs, with the Suns holding a 74.7% chance to finish as the No. 2 seed in the West and the Blazers holding a 53.4% chance to finish as the No. 6 seed.

With both teams avoiding the play-in tournament, this could be a game where we see stars scaled back a bit, especially with the Blazers on the second leg of a back-to-back. In a matchup with the Suns, I’m OK passing on Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic in everything outside of large-field GPPs. In those formats, I would want some minimal exposure simply due to their ceilings. In the chance that Nurkic could get ruled out on the back-to-back, Enes Kanter at $4,500 would immediately become an incredibly strong value option at the center position.

The Suns step into an exploitable matchup with a brutal Blazers’ defense but could face the same dilemma here as we could see some of the impact players get scaled back in preparation for the playoffs. Both Chris Paul and Devin Booker are viable simply given the matchup, with Paul profiling more as a cash option. While he’s failed to post any super-impressive stat lines in his two games against the Blazers this season, he still carries one of the highest floors at the point guard position.

Deandre Ayton should get a normal allotment of minutes here given the matchup with a pair of more traditional centers, but his production has staggered due to the fact that he’s attempted over five shots in only one of his last four games. With his floor as low as it is, it’s hard to trust him in anything more than large-field tournaments. Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges make sense here, as both should get incrementally more playing time in the absences of Abdel Nader and Cameron Johnson.