Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
There are seven games on Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate and only two of them have spreads less than five points, as the popular assumption seems to be that the majority of these games have some blowout potential. It’ll be important to take these into account, but also to avoid getting paralyzed by this fear and avoid good plays simply because of the implied spreads.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics
UTA -4.5, total: 228
This game sports the second-tightest spread on the slate, as the Celtics are finally returning to full strength. That should help their outlook against the best record in the NBA.
In the backcourt, it’s really hard to justify either Kemba Walker or Marcus Smart, but for two different reasons. In Walker’s case, his price ($7,100) is simply too high with a fully healthy rotation, as his production has already been more erratic (21.25 and 33 DK Points over the last two games) since the return of Smart. Speaking of Smart, his $5,700 price tag may be appealing, but he’s still on a rather strict minutes cap, negating any upside that he would potentially have.
My interest, if any, would be with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The Jazz are a stout defensive unit, so I prefer to take the $1,400 savings on Brown to add a bit of safety in terms of a floor. He’s still posted a 27.5% usage rate over the last two games (compared to 28.1% for Tatum) and has averaged over a fantasy point per minute, giving him a stable floor in 32-plus minutes. Tatum is still viable, though, as he’s posted 1.48 DKP/min since the return of Marcus Smart.
I have a bit more interest in the Jazz side of this game, as the Celtics defense has not been the unit we’ve become accustomed to over the past few seasons. Rudy Gobert is my top option here, as he’s coming off of a massive 24-point, 28-rebound and now steps into a matchup against a defense that ranks 26th against rim protectors and 17th against rebounders, per advanced DvP.
All three of Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson have upside here, specifically Conley against the putrid defense of Kemba Walker. While all three are viable options, none are elite or “must” plays at their prices.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat
MIA -10.5, total: 212.5
The Heat are expecting to welcome Bam Adebayo back into the lineup Tuesday, which would help indicate why this is such a large spread. This would also likely spell the elite-level value of Kelly Olynyk, as his minutes and usage will certainly be scaled back. Unless Adebayo is listed as a full-go, he’s too hard to trust with a potential minutes limit in a game that carries heavy blowout risk.
I would rather continue to opt for Jimmy Butler, who’s been on an absolute tear with Adebayo out of the lineup but was still performing well with him active. With Adebayo in the lineup. Butler has averaged over 45 DraftKings and FanDuel points with a 27.19% usage rate while also averaging over 7.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists. He’s a surefire bet at the small forward position if you can afford him.
The guard rotation will also take a slight hit with Adebayo returning, as he soaks up enough usage and distribution to knock their ceilings. Of the three, Tyler Herro is my favorite, as he rounded back into form with over 20 raw points off the bench in their last game. Goran Dragic would be my next option, with Kendrick Nunn being my least favorite. Dragic, in particular, should be able to thrive against a defense that has struggled mightily in the transition game this season.
The Cavs are a team that I have literally zero interest in on this slate. Sure, Collin Sexton and Jarrett Allen have ceilings, but they’re taking on a buzz-saw of a team in the Miami Heat, who have posted the fourth-highest defensive efficiency rate in the league this season (106.8).
Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets
ATL -9.5, total: 224.5
While the spread of this game implies a potential blowout, there’s enough upside given the lack of defensive ability to warrant consideration for DFS appeal.
Clint Capela is currently listed as questionable as he nurses a heel issue, but if he’s active, he’ll be one of the best center options on the slate. He ranks second in the entire NBA in rebounding chances per game (23.3) and takes on a Houston frontcourt that ranks 25th against rebounders. If he’s out, John Collins would be a massive beneficiary, as he averages more DraftKings points, FanDuel points, and has a higher usage rate (23.42%) with Capela out this season. With Onyeka Okongwu also questionable, we could see another dosage of Nathan Knight, who saw a career-high 23 minutes last game en route to over 35 DK points. He would become an elite value if Capela is ruled out, and a priority if both he and Okongwu are ruled out.
This also helps Trae Young (surprisingly), as he’s averaged over seven more DraftKings and FanDuel points per game without Capela this season, with a 35.51% usage rate. The Rockets are allowing the most transition points per game in the entire NBA, making this an exploitable matchup for Young.
While the Rockets are heavy underdogs, the Hawks still present an exploitable matchup even though they’ve been playing better on defense under Nate McMillan. With Eric Gordon and John Wall out, I want one of Victor Oladipo or Kevin Porter in my lineup. Porter is a better per-dollar play on FanDuel ($1,000 less than on DraftKings) but makes sense on either site as he’s posted a 26.8% usage rate, 38.9% assist rate, and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute since being called up. Oladipo, meanwhile, has sported a 35.1% usage rate with Cousins, Wall, and Gordon off the floor this season with a 32.4% assist rate and 1.12 FDP/min.
With P.J. Tucker done in Houston, it also makes Kenyon Martin an appealing target on both sites, as he’s posted a 19.7% usage rate and 1.07 FDP/min (1.05 DKP/min) and comes at an affordable price.
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -7, total: 216.5
The Knicks come into this game after a heartbreaking loss (and questionable call) to the Nets to take on a 76ers team that will be without Joel Embiid for the next few weeks.
While Embiid’s absence hurts this defensive unit as a whole, the sheer presence of Ben Simmons in the backcourt (and, well, frontcourt) still make this a tough unit to target. Because of this, the only two Knicks players that I have interest in are Julius Randle and Immanuel Quickley. Without Embiid, Randle should have a ton of room to operate in the paint and stretch the defense out, especially with a size advantage over Tobias Harris. Quickley drew his first career start last game and has now seen over 30 minutes in consecutive games. If Elfrid Payton and Derrick Rose remain out, he should be able to ride his 24.6% usage rate to another good outing.
RJ Barrett has been playing great lately, but I have reservations because I see Simmons taking him on as an individual matchup in this game.
This is also not a good matchup for the Sixers, as the Knicks have been a stout defensive unit all season. With that said, the absence of Embiid obviously opens up a massive amount of usage and peripherals. With him out, Tobias Harris sees a team-high 5.2% bump in usage rate, while Ben Simmons sees a 2.5% bump. Both are viable in this game but are not core plays given the fact that sites had time to price them accordingly.
The same can be said for Dwight Howard, who’s been priced up in preparation of Embiid’s absence. He still has a ceiling, but at $6,000 on DraftKings, there are other viable options that make him far from a core-play against this defensive unit. Tony Bradley is the one player that has not been priced up, as he remains less than $4,000 and should see over 20 minutes, making him a usable value piece.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -6, total: 224
Al Horford and Darius Bazley have already been ruled out for the Thunder while both Theo Maledon and Luguentz Dort are listed as questionable. This, once again, would make the Thunder roster a mess in a beautiful matchup.
With Horford and Bazley already ruled out, we should see a lot more of Isaiah Roby and Moses Brown. Roby has been getting the minutes but has failed to produce a ceiling that we’d like to see at his price ($5,300 on DraftKings), so I actually have more interest in Brown at $3,500. While his center-only eligibility is a bit of a knock, he’s topped 23 DraftKings points in three consecutive games and gets to take on one of the best matchups in the league for a center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is obviously viable here and even more so if Dort and Maledon sit out. He should continue to soak up all of the usage and every peripheral stat, making him an elite play at only $8,000 on FanDuel. If Dort and/or Maledon sit out, we’d also see more Kenrich Williams, who’s seen 25 or more minutes in three of his last four games.
For the Bulls, the lineup changes last game have made more players than just Zach LaVine viable and that rings true again on Tuesday. LaVine is the obvious top choice here and he needs no analysis to convince you of that, but Tomas Satoransky is my favorite dollar-for-dollar play on the Bulls. His price is still too low ($3,600 on DraftKings, $4,200 on FanDuel) after posting more than 30 fantasy points in his last start. He has a track record of being a proven starter and given the fact that 25 minutes should be a realistic outcome, he’s one of the best value plays on the slate.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -1.5, total: 240.5
If there’s a game to stack on the slate, this is the one. Unfortunately, that won’t be a unique train of thought. The Blazers welcome CJ McCollum back into the lineup, and while he should be rather limited coming back, it should still help this game stay competitive. While the addition of McCollum may look like a knock for the Pelicans, the Blazers have actually been almost the same exact team with him as they were without him:
Damian Lillard still sets up as an elite play here against a brutal defense, sporting a 32.35% usage rate with McCollum in the lineup this season. Enes Kanter also makes a ton of sense against a traditional center in Steven Adams, which is typically his best path to eclipsing the 30-minute threshold.
Robert Covington is another player I have a ton of interest in on this slate, as he should see a massive number of minutes to try and contain Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, as he’s likely the only defender on Portland that even has an outside shot (spoiler, he really doesn’t have a chance). Gary Trent is the one Blazers player that I’m likely off of this slate, simply because he’s the player most directly impacted by the return of McCollum.
On the Pelicans side, it’s going to be extremely hard for someone to talk me off of locking in Zion Williamson. Over the last four weeks, he’s posted a 30.4% usage rate while finally seeing the spike in peripherals we’ve been waiting for, posting a 19.8% assist rate and 12.7% rebounding rate (1.37 DKP/min). The Blazers defense ranks 30th against primary ball handlers and 23rd against crafty finishers, giving him some of the most upside on the entire slate.
If you’re fading Williamson, it makes sense to get Brandon Ingram exposure. Over that same span while Zion has been breaking out, Ingram has remained steady with a 27.9% usage rate, 21.7% assist rate, and 1.16 DKP/min. Regardless of which of these two you’re playing, they correlate well with Lonzo Ball (Zion more so than Ingram), as Ball has transitioned his game from a pass-first point guard to operate more as a spot-up shooter. This also gives him far more upside on DraftKings with their favorable scoring system for three-point shooters, as he’s attempted at least five three-pointers in 10 straight games.
With JJ Redick out, you can get away with the value of Josh Hart and, as much as it pains me to say it, Eric Bledsoe. Both are better left for tournaments given their floors, but it’s hard to argue with anyone in this game environment. Jaxson Hayes is another value dart for tournaments, as he’s seen 20 or more minutes in three of the last four games and has posted at least 20 DK points in all three of those same games. At $3,400, he makes for a viable value center if you want to pivot away from Moses Brown or Nathan Knight (if Capela is out).
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -9, total: 225.5
The Lakers enter this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and while there is an outside shot that we could see LeBron James rest, the spread seems to imply that he’ll play. While the matchup is elite for James (not that it matters to him), there are other avenues that I prefer to take given his volatility in fantasy production lately.
I would rather opt for Dennis Schroder, Kyle Kuzma, or Montrezl Harrell to get my Lakers exposure. Of the three, Harrell and Kuzma are both averaging over 1.30 DKP/min over the last week while all three have usage rates north of 20% and Schroder adds a 26.2% assist rate over that span. Given the price break that you get compared to James, they make more sense, especially considering the fact that James would be the very first player pulled in a blowout.
Even though the Lakers’ defense has been more susceptible with Anthony Davis out, this is not a matchup to attack with a team like the Timberwolves. This relegates Karl-Anthony Towns to a GPP play at best, with the only other interest being in the value guards, as I don’t want to target Anthony Edwards against a combination of James and Schroder.
Of the value guards, Ricky Rubio has a more stable floor, but Jaylen Nowell possesses the higher ceiling, making it easy to decipher who is the better cash versus tournament option.
