Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After a huge 11-game NBA DFS slate Thursday, we have a less daunting seven-game slate around the NBA Friday evening. As always, keep an eye on news as it cycles in throughout the afternoon.
Let’s break down the games.
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Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Pelicans
NO -7, total: 228.5
The Pelicans will be on the second end of a back-to-back here and this game against the Cavaliers could feature plenty of points. These defenses have been bad for most of the year but especially of late. Over the last 15 games, the Pelicans rank 29th in defensive rating, while the Cavaliers are right behind them at 28th during that same span. Zion Williamson has been playing out of his mind, as he continues to score the ball with ease. He’s scored at least 20 points in 28 of his 34 games this season, while sporting a true shooting percentage of nearly 70%. Cleveland has no one to defend him, especially at the power forward position. The Cavaliers are also coughing up the fourth-most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (1.21), while Zion is running way more out of the pick and roll over the last month or so. He is also generating an and-one over 7% of the time off the play type. And while New Orleans still isn’t playing at a crazy pace, Zion is still averaging 4.3 transition points per game, 21st in basketball, while shooting a whopping 70% off the play type. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are allowing 21.9 transition points per game on the year, good for the third-most in the league. Meanwhile, I think Lonzo Ball is a solid cash play at $7,000 on DraftKings in a solid matchup, though he’s being used a lot differently this season. With Zion handling the ball more, Lonzo has been operating as a spot-up shooter, as his 6.3 spot-up points per game are the fifth-most in the NBA. That could lead to more inconsistent peripherals, especially in the assist department, but I still believe he is worth a look. Finally, Brandon Ingram is fairly priced at $8,300 and makes for a solid option against a Cleveland team that ranks 28th against scorers and 23rd against point forwards, per advanced DvP.
Darius Garland and Kevin Love (remember him?) are both listed as questionable to play in this game. Love hasn’t played since the end of December, so he’d be very limited if he were active, taking him out of consideration. But if Garland sits, Sexton becomes more interesting, even at over $8,000 on DK. Sexton has logged at least 40 minutes in each of his last three games and with Garland off the floor this season, his usage rate jumps up to 31.8%, while averaging well over a fantasy point per minute. His assists have been up as of late, too, recording 18 assists over the last two games. This is a solid matchup against a Pelicans defense that is coughing up a 66.9% field goal percentage at the rim this season (fifth-worst). That bodes well for Sexton, who is averaging 16.9 drives per game on the year, good for the eighth-most in basketball. Meanwhile, Larry Nance is expected to be back in this game, but he hasn’t played since Feb. 6, making it likely he sees limited minutes too.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards
PHI -4.5, total: 234
The 76ers were without both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons Thursday night. Embiid is eligible to return for this game, but Simmons will remain quarantined until Saturday, ruling him out for this contest. Philadelphia started Matisse Thybulle Thursday, while Tony Bradley started at center. Embiid will obviously return to the starting lineup here, but it’ll be interesting if Thybulle starts again. That would help Danny Green and Seth Curry, as Thybulle is an insanely low-usage player. Of course, Tobias Harris and Embiid profile as strong plays here. With Simmons off the floor this season, Embiid is sporting a usage rate of nearly 42% to go along with a 40% rebounding rate and he should be viewed as an elite option against a vulnerable Washington defense. At $8,300 on DK, however, Harris is someone we have to take a stand on, as that is not a cheap price tag. Meanwhile, I think you can take shots on Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz with Simmons sidelined.
With Simmons out, Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook definitely get a bump. Simmons is the best on-ball defender in basketball — when he’s off the court this season, the 76ers defensive rating drops by nearly nine points. Beal has crushed this team in the past (including this season) even with Simmons, averaging 62.1 fantasy points in two meetings. The league-leader in scoring, Beal is questionable with a knee injury and I really hope he plays. He can get buckets in many ways, but a lot of his damage comes off screens, as he’s averaging a league-leading 4.5 points per game off the play type this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is surrendering the most points per game off screens (6.0), as well as the third-highest field goal percentage off the play type (45.3%). He’s coming off a down game where he shot 6-for-22 but I’m going right back to Beal here tonight. I do prefer him over Westbrook, who is $500 more, but he’s obviously got a very high built-in floor/ceiling combo given his rebounding and assist totals. And if Beal sits, Westbrook becomes a core option, as he’s sporting a 40.3% usage rate, 28% rebounding rate and 27% assist rate with Beal off the floor. Raul Neto and Ish Smith would also see bumps in minutes and volume if Beal were to sit.
Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies
DEN -3.5, total: 227.5
We’ll see what Nikola Jokic has in store for the second half of the year, as he put together an MVP-caliber first half. At $10,900 on DraftKings, Jokic is still perfectly in play and you know what you are going to get from him — everything. He is sporting a 29.8% usage rate, 31% rebounding rate and 24% assist rate on the season, while averaging 1.60 fantasy points per minute. This is an interesting matchup against the Grizzlies, a team that is coughing up the third-worst field goal percentage off handoffs this season (46.6%). That is notable because the dribble handoff is a huge part of this Denver offense and it leads to a lot of assists from Jokic. Memphis is also coughing up the second-most points per possession (1.08) and the worst field goal percentage (57.8%) in the league to the post, which bodes well for Jokic, who is averaging 6.2 post-up points per game, the second-most in basketball. Meanwhile, those aforementioned handoff numbers make Jamal Murray interesting, who leads the league in points per game off the play type (3.6). Denver could get JaMychal Green and/or Paul Millsap back for this game, which would impact Michael Porter. Millsap has missed the last 10 games, while Green has missed eight consecutive games. With both players off the floor this season, Porter is sporting a healthy 27% rebounding rate. And over his last six games, Porter has recorded double-digit rebounds six times. At $7,400, he remains in play in tournaments if both Green and Millsap are out.
Memphis played Wednesday night and Jonas Valanciunas absolutely dominated, going off for 29 points, 20 rebounds, three assists and four blocks. We know JoVal has immense upside anytime he plays 30-plus minutes, but this was insane. There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as Denver struggles to protect the paint and at $7,700, Valanciunas still isn’t at an egregious price tag or anything. However, I am slightly leaning towards Ja Morant if playing anyone from the Grizzlies. Morant had been a floor play for a while but as of late, he’s showcased a serious ceiling, going for 58.7, 51.5 and 44 fantasy points over his last three games. This is a good spot for him, facing a Denver defense that is surrendering a 69.9% field goal percentage at the rim, the worst mark in the league. Morant, meanwhile, is averaging 20.1 drives per game on the year, the third-most in the NBA.
Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -6.5, total: 215.5
The Magic finally got Aaron Gordon back in the lineup the other night, his first game action since the end of January. They were, however, without both Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross, who popped up on the injury report with knee soreness. If both players sit again, Gordon could be really interesting in tournaments if we get word that he will play more minutes, especially given how he’s played way more point forward this season with all of the injuries to the Orlando backcourt. The Magic started Dwayne Bacon at shooting guard Thursday night and could be a viable value play if Orlando is short-handed again on Friday. Of course, this team will continue to run through Nikola Vucevic, who is as safe a play as there is at any position.
San Antonio will also be missing key players for this game. LaMarcus Aldridge’s time with the Spurs has come to an end, as the two have agreed to part ways. He’ll sit out until the team can arrange a trade. Meanwhile, DeMar DeRozan will be away from the team for personal reasons. The absence of both players opens up a ton of opportunity for the rest of the Spurs. Dejounte Murray sets up very well here, as he’s sporting a 25.1% usage rate, 22% rebounding rate and 19% assist rate with both Aldridge and DeRozan off the floor this season, while averaging a strong 1.19 fantasy points per minute in the split. Rookie Keldon Johnson could make for an elite value plat at $4,800, though there could be some risk. He rejoined the starting five last game, but his minutes remained limited, as his conditioning still might not be up to par just yet after dealing with COVID-19. But if we get word that he won’t see limited minutes, he’d make for an easy play here, as he’s sporting a 24% rebounding rate with Aldridge and DeRozan off the floor. In that same price range, Derrick White is a viable play at $4,900, as he leads the team with a 27% usage rate with both players off the court this season, while averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
MIA -2, total: 219
My level of interest in this game will depend on the status of Miami’s Bam Adebayo, who has missed the team’s last two games with a knee issue. If he is once again ruled out, Jimmy Butler will remain a very good play, as he’s been dominating in terms of peripherals since returning to the lineup in the beginning of February. And with Bam off the floor this season, Butler is sporting a 23% rebounding rate and 26% assist rate, while also averaging 1.54 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, Kelly Olynyk would remain a very strong mid-range play, as he’s posted stat lines of 18-10-7 and 20-7-2 over the last two games without Adebayo. And with Bam off the floor this season, Olynyk’s rebounding rate jumps up to 21%. This is a pretty substantial pace-up spot for the Heat, facing a fast-paced Bulls team that definitely struggles to play defense. I also think Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro make for very safe plays at their price tags, especially if Adebayo is once again ruled out.
For the Bulls, like it has been for much of the season, it is Zach LaVine or bust for me. He’s scored at least 30 real points in nine of his last 12 contests. Everyone else on this team is either a tad too expensive or hasn’t shown a ceiling at a consistent level to really consider, especially in a middling matchup.
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz
UTA -17, total: 226.5
The Rockets were without John Wall Thursday and could be missing multiple players Friday. We have to see if Wall (knee) returns to the lineup, but it is also possible that Victor Oladipo rests on the second end of a back-to-back, something he’s done very often this season. Meanwhile, Eric Gordon left Thursday’s game with a groin injury and did not return, putting his status in question, while we already know that Christian Wood will remain out. We saw Kevin Porter make his Houston debut and go for over 42 fantasy points in 29 minutes. It is entirely possible that he is the top value play on the slate at $3,200 on DraftKings, but especially if Wall/Oladipo are also out. Sterling Brown would also be worth a look at $4,500 if Gordon and Daniel House are out of the lineup.
Utah are heavy home favorites against a Rockets team that has lost 14 consecutive games. I still don’t hate Rudy Gobert at $7,800 against a struggling defense that offers zero rim protection and is allowing nearly 50 points in the paint per contest. However, while the upside is certainly there, I don’t love spending nearly $9,000 on Donovan Mitchell when the Jazz are at full strength. Jordan Clarkson could actually be worth a look in tournaments at $6,400, especially with the Jazz being such heavy favorites. We could see him flirt with 30 minutes if he gets blowout run and the matchup is strong, as the Rockets rank 26th against both scorers and bench players for the season, per our advanced DVP tool.
Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -4.5, total: 216.5
LeBron James will continue to do a lot of the heavy lifting for the Lakers with Anthony Davis sidelined. For the season, James is sporting a 33.6% usage rate, 23% rebounding rate and 22% assist rate with Davis off the floor, while averaging 1.48 fantasy points per minute. But with Marc Gasol also out, Montrezl Harrell becomes a lot easier to trust. We saw him play 33 minutes off the bench before the break and while LeBron didn’t play in that game, Harrell still has the path to 30 minutes, which is huge for him when you consider he is averaging well over a fantasy point per minute with a 26% rebounding rate when Davis is off the floor. Kyle Kuzma, meanwhile, is sporting a 28% rebounding rate without Davis and while I normally don’t love to play him, $5,900 is a fair price tag given the circumstances surrounding the Lakers.
The Pacers really don’t interest me all that much on this slate. Yes, the Lakers defense is much worse with Davis off the floor, but Domantas Sabonis is nearly $10,000 on DraftKings and there are simply other players I prefer around that price range. The floor is going to be there for both Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon, who still rank second and fifth in the NBA in touches per game on the season, but they aren’t core plays for me on this slate.
