Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate was an odd one, as there were a handful of blowouts baked in with a pair of late scratches in Derrick Rose and Kawhi Leonard, two players who were generating buzz around the industry leading up until lock. Leonard’s sounded like it was due to back spasms, but Rose’s was a painful reminder that we can get COVID/health-and-safety protocol scratches at any time.
Wednesday’s slate presents us with 10 total games to dive into, so let’s not waste any more time.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
IND -5.5, total: 217
The Wednesday slate kicks off with a bit of a snooze-fest in terms of DFS, as both of these teams run at rather slower paces. The Cavs defense, however, has been in free-fall relative to their early-season form, making this a spot to attack with a piece or two from the Pacers. The key cogs are obviously Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis. Both of them benefit from Cleveland’s struggles against scorers (27th per aDvP), but Sabonis also benefits from the fact that the Cavs are 24th against both point forwards and skilled centers.
While Doug McDermott is listed as questionable, it was reported that Jeremy Lamb is “likely” returning to action in this game after missing Monday’s contest. Should McDermott sit out, it opens up incrementally more minutes for Lamb and Justin Holiday, who would become fine fillers to help save some salary in your lineup, as both carry a fair amount of upside relative to their prices.
For the Cavs, it’s really just Jarrett Allen or bust for me, as neither Darius Garland nor Collin Sexton has shown the slate-breaking upside that I want to chase on a full slate. Allen, on the other hand, has. In games this season without Andre Drummond, Allen has seen a +10.02 bump in DraftKings points per game (+9.98 on FanDuel), a +3.23 bump in points per game, +4.41 bump in rebounds per game, and a +5.45 bump in minutes per game (34.00). Given the size of Indiana’s frontcourt, we should expect as many minutes as Allen can handle, making him an appealing tournament option.
Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers
UTA -3, total: 227.5
This is a prototypical game that caters more toward the interest of NBA fans than it does DFS players, as both of these defenses have been exceptional this season while neither team is running at a very favorable pace.
The Sixers may still be without Tobias Harris, who’s missed the last two games with a knee issue. I would be surprised to see him play, seeing that this is their last game before the All-Star break, so I am approaching as if he is out. In that scenario over the last two games, we’ve seen Joel Embiid lead the team with a 34% usage rate (1.80 DKP/min) and Ben Simmons hold a 27.2% usage rate. Both are viable in this matchup, especially in tournaments, as is the same opponent in which Ben Simmons posted his 40-point triple-double this season, but neither are building blocks in cash games.
Furkan Korkmaz has seen 20+ minutes in both games with Harris out, starting one and coming off of the bench for one while posting the second-highest usage rate on the team (28.3%) over that span. I’m not advocating for you to go out of your way here, but if you have $3,800 for your utility spot and love the rest of your lineup, he’s not the worst option in the world.
On the Jazz side, Rudy Gobert will continue to be in my player pool until DraftKings decides to price him accordingly. He should be primed for 34+ minutes in a matchup with Joel Embiid, where he posted 27 points, 12 rebounds and a trio of blocks in their last meeting. Both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley are fine at their prices as well in large-field tournaments, but this is a backcourt that I’ll likely be avoiding if playing one, two, or three lineups.
Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -7.5, tota: 214.5
There is still a very real chance that this game doesn’t play, as the Raptors have had every game this week postponed due to health-and-safety protocol issues so far, so this is something to keep an eye on. If it does, however, they’ll be rather short-handed.
Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Patrick McCaw and Malachi Flynn have already been ruled out for the Raptors, leaving the rotation uber-thin. This should immediately open up a massive amount of volume for both Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell in the starting lineup. Both are priced at a point where they’re easy to fit into your lineup, making it a priority for me to get at least one of the two in this matchup.
This should also open up more minutes (and potentially a start) for Chris Boucher. While he’s been a rollercoaster to roster this season, he’s averaged 1.20 DKP/min and 43.31 DraftKings points per 36 minutes, giving him an astronomical ceiling for $6,400. We could also see more of Yuta Watanabe and Terence Davis and while both are risky value investments, they’re cheap enough given the good matchup where 20+ minutes should get them there.
On the Pistons side, Jerami Grant is listed as questionable after missing practice, which could vacate 27% of the offensive usage should he end up sitting out. If he were to miss this game, Josh Jackson would likely become the focal point of the offense, sporting a 32.4% and 1.19 DKP/min usage rate with Grant, Griffin, Wright, Hayes and Rose off of the court. This would also lead to more shots for Saddiq Bey (0.90 FDP/min in this scenario), Dennis Smith Jr., Saben Lee and Mason Plumlee.
Of those four, my interest lies in Lee and Bey, as both carry a heap of offensive upside while coming in at a reasonable price tag.
Brooklyn Nets @ Houston Rockets
BKN -9.5, total: 226.5
If there’s a narrative to consider, I think it’s James Harden’s return to Houston. After a rather sour split, it’s hard to envision Harden not going scorched-earth here, especially considering his 31.4% usage rate, 41.4% assist rate and 1.55 DKP/min clip over the last two weeks. If fading Harden, I will continue to advocate for hedging with Kyrie Irving, who offers a similar usage rate in that span (30.2%) for a $1,600 discount on DraftKings ($1,900 on FanDuel).
Outside of those two, it’s hard to endorse the Nets given the insane amount of usage that the backcourt soaks up. With Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ruled out and Jeff Green listed as doubtful, we could see another decent dosage of Nicolas Claxton, who posted 34.1 FanDuel points in 17 minutes on Monday. The minutes are obviously far from secure, but given Houston’s tendency to go small at center, he should find himself in a position to play at least the same amount that he did last game.
For Houston, this spread implies a potential blowout, but this matchup is still one to attack. Both Eric Gordon and Danuel House are listed as questionable while David Nwaba has already been ruled out, opening up more minutes on the wing for role players like Jae'Sean Tate and Sterling Brown. Of the two, Tate makes the most sense given the security in minutes. This also solidifies Victor Oladipo in the 36+ minute range and in this matchup, he has an astronomical ceiling, attempting at least 20 shots in three consecutive games.
John Wall is also viable on both sites given the expected pace of this game and the individual matchup with either James Harden or Kyrie Irving, as this should provide an added ceiling for defensive peripherals. If searching for value on the Houston side, Justin Patton makes the most sense. He’s seen 58 total minutes over the last two games as the interim center for the Rockets, topping 20 DK points in each game. If we see the Nets keep DeAndre Jordan on the court, Patton should be in line for extended run, making him a fine value if you want to punt the center position.
Charlotte Hornets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
CHA -1, total: 229.5
Two bad defenses in a tight spread always make for an attractive fantasy environment, especially when you factor in potentially limited rotations.
Both Cody Zeller and Gordon Hayward are listed as questionable after missing the last couple of games for the Hornets so we could see a thin rotation once again in a very beatable matchup. LaMelo Ball’s price continues to rise, but it’s completely justified. Since joining the starting lineup this season, Ball has averaged 20.8 points, 6.8 assists, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.9 steals in 34.5 minutes per game. Considering the fact that I want to target him at $9,200 on DraftKings, his $8,600 tag on FanDuel is all the more enticing.
I’m also fine going back to the well on Terry Rozier here if Gordon Hayward is ruled out. He’s been extremely volatile this season, but the Timberwolves rank 26th against scorers, which should give him a massive ceiling for a reasonable $7,000 on FanDuel if he benefits from Hayward’s absence again. If both Hayward and Zeller miss another game, P.J. Washington finds himself in a nice bounce-back spot at what should be lower ownership assuming the masses jump ship after a dud. He’s too expensive on DraftKings, but his $5,800 price on FanDuel is extremely appealing.
On the other side of this game, Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be hard to get away from. Not only does he hold a 31.8% usage rate and 1.44 DKP/min without D'Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley this season, but the Hornets rank 22nd or worse against five of his eight total player traits, listed below:
If fading Towns, it makes sense to get exposure to Anthony Edwards, whose 32.5% usage rate sans Russell and Beasley is the highest on the team. His efficiency can be maddening, but it’s hard to find a player in his price range that will take as many shots as he does.
Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic
ATL -4, total: 224.5
The Hawks come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back after welcoming Bogdan Bogdanovic back on Tuesday against the Heat. Given the length of his absence, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sit this game out.
Trae Young is always in play when listed under $10,000, but his recent form is somewhat concerning, as he’s failed to reach 20 raw points or shoot better than 42% from the field in three straight games. Because of this, he’s better left for tournaments given how many options there are on the slate that feel a bit safer. If playing Young, you can pair him with Clint Capela given the pick-and-roll nature of the offense, as this pairing provides a phenomenal ceiling in GPPs.
John Collins is a player who I’ll be avoiding for the foreseeable future after being on him just about every slate for most of the season. He sat out for the entire fourth quarter against the Heat, with interim head coach Nate McMillan citing the matchup as the reason for the benching, not injury. Seeing that this throws a huge wrench into his playing time, he’s far too risky to play until we see a more defined role in the new offense.
For the Magic, Nikola Vucevic will continue to be a viable spend-up and typically doesn’t carry that much ownership when he’s priced over $10,000. He’s topped 55 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and with the Hawks ranking 26th against skilled centers, there’s certainly a heap of upside here. Outside of Vucevic, however, it’s hard to trust this Magic offense. With Evan Fournier questionable, we could see more Terrence Ross, but $6,300 is a tough price to swallow on a full 10-game slate. This could also lead to more Michael Carter-Williams, who certainly has a ceiling in this specific matchup.
Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -5.5, total: 237
We’ve arrived at what may be the most attractive game on the slate, and there’s only one reasonable place to start: Zion Williamson. He’s finally started to flash his peripheral ceiling that we’ve been waiting on all season, averaging 28.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game over his last five games. On top of this, he comes into a pace-up spot against a Bulls team that ranks 27th against crafty finishers, 28th against skilled centers and 29th against both scorers and primary ball handlers. This is a spot where I’d happily pay $10,000+ for Williamson, making him the first player I plug into my lineups at his current price ($9,100 on DraftKings, $8,900 on FanDuel).
If fading Zion (won’t be me), Brandon Ingram is a logical pivot, as he obviously benefits from the same matchup and still has a 27.9% usage rate and 20.8% assist rate on the season. Lonzo Ball is someone who I like to stack with one or both of these forwards, as his 22% assist rate correlates well, and he’s also shooting 44.7% from three over his last five games on over seven attempts per game, boosting his ceiling on DraftKings at a reasonable price.
If going full game-stack (which is totally viable), you can also consider Steven Adams in an exploitable matchup with Wendell Carter Jr. or Josh Hart as a source of value. As much as it pains me to say it, you can even consider Eric Bledsoe in tournaments here.
On the flip side, I want to do what I can to stack Zion with Zach LaVine. Over the last four weeks, he’s posted a 34% usage rate, 22.3% assist rate and 1.31 DKP/min, giving him one of the highest upsides on the entire slate. If foregoing LaVine, you can get away with Coby White (0.97 DKP/min over last month) in tournaments, or even Wendell Carter Jr. or Thad Young given how poor the Pelicans defense has been playing.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -6.5, total: 223.5
The biggest news of the slate comes out of Dallas, as Luka Doncic is listed as questionable. Given the fact that this is the Mavericks’ last game before the break, there may be a better chance than usual that he sits out on this slate. With him off the court this season, Kristaps Porzingis sports a 32.4% usage rate, Tim Hardaway Jr. sports a 28.1% usage rate, and Trey Burke sees a +4.3% bump in usage. All three of these players would become elite plays in this scenario.
Josh Richardson can be added to the elite-play class as well. While he only sees a +1.8% bump without Luka, he and Jalen Brunson would take over as the two primary ball handlers in this offense, making them elite plays by default. If Doncic is in, we can approach this team as normal, targeting both him and Porzingis.
On the other side of this game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford are really the only two options that pique my interest. Gilgeous-Alexander has been a Swiss-army knife for the Thunder this season, posting a 28.2% usage rate, 31.8% assist rate and 1.21 DKP/min. Horford benefits from the matchup here, as the Mavericks rank in the bottom third of the NBA in field goal percentage allowed in the restricted area (66.3%).
Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers
GS -3.5, total: 235.5
This is another fantasy-friendly environment that carries a tight spread and massive total, making pieces of this game vital.
The Warriors are an easy team to break down, as it’s really Stephen Curry or Draymond Green and then move on. Curry, at sub-$10k, offers the upside for 70 DraftKings points while Green’s recent form (11+ assists in three of last four games, 45+ DK points in all three of those games) makes his $7,400 price tag look like a bargain. Outside of those two, however, there’s no need to look to Kelly Oubre or Andrew Wiggins with more reliable options on the slate, both in this game and elsewhere.
For the Blazers, Damian Lillard’s $10,600 price tag may deter people, but he’s still an elite play. He’s topped 50 DK points in seven of his last eight games, averaging 31.3 points, 10.8 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 5.0 threes per game over that span.
If operating under the assumption that Lillard has a down game, it would make sense to get exposure to Gary Trent (16+ field goal attempts in five of his last seven games), as he would be a direct beneficiary of that outcome in the backcourt. Robert Covington is in another solid spot here as well if we think Draymond gets run at the five, as we’ve seen Portland deploy small-ball lineups with Covington playing the center. He’s also in great form after a 5-7 showing from three in his last game. You can also get away with Enes Kanter in tournaments given his legitimate 20-20 upside, but I always proceed with caution in a matchup that could very well see a ton of small-ball lineups.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -4.5, total: 226.5
The Kings are favored in this game? You read that correctly. With LeBron James ruled out for rest on Wednesday morning, the Lakers will be playing on the backs of Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, and Kyle Kuzma to take home a W today. Oof.
Joking aside, this is a phenomenal matchup to get value from. All three of the above players are too cheap considering the absences of both James and Anthony Davis, with my order of preference being Schroder, Harrell, Kuzma. It’s hard to not make Schroder a priority in this game.
The biggest priority for me, however, is Talen Horton-Tucker. There is still a chance that he doesn’t draw a start, but at $3,900 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings, you don’t need him to. Without the two superstars this season, Horton-Tucker holds a 28% usage rate and averages 1.15 DKP/min, giving him the potential to get there and more in a mere 20 minutes on Wednesday. Twenty minutes also feel more like a floor projection here, making him the top overall value play on the slate. Markieff Morris is another elite value, as he’s shown the willingness to be trigger-happy and remains too cheap.
This matchup also gets more appealing for the Kings. If running more than one Laker, it would make sense to run it back. De'Aaron Fox remains the best way to do so, as his ceiling is astronomically higher than all of the other Kings. If fading Fox, you can get away with Buddy Hield, Richaun Holmes or Marvin Bagley here.
