Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We open the month of March with a seven-game NBA slate that features a ton of injury news that we need to keep an eye on. As many as four teams could once again be without some key players, opening up opportunities all across the board tonight.
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Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -4.5, total: 224
It is difficult to break down the 76ers upon this writing, as both Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid are questionable. Harris missed the team’s last game with a minor knee injury while Embiid is apparently dealing with ankle soreness. With Harris out, Furkan Korkmaz entered the starting lineup, though he played just 20 minutes. Danny Green logged 37 minutes, scoring nearly 27 fantasy points and while he’s never the most exciting player to roster, he’d be viable if Harris sits. And especially if Embiid is out, one of Green or Seth Curry would likely need to have a productive game if the 76ers are going to compete and the matchup against the Pacers makes it possible, as Indiana is coughing up the fifth-most points per game to spot-up shooters this season (32.3), as well as the second-most points per possession off the play type (1.12). Curry, meanwhile, is averaging 4.3 points per game off spot-ups this season, averaging 1.19 points per possession, while Green is averaging 6.1 points per game off catch-and-shoot opportunities, good for the 19th-most in basketball. Unlike those two, however, Shake Milton is actually a high-usage player and with both Harris and Embiid off the floor this season, Milton’s usage rate jumps to 30.8 percent, which is the highest rate on the team. Given his potential and ceiling and usage, he’d easily be my favorite play from this team if Harris and/or Embiid are out, while Dwight Howard would likely see a spot start without Embiid. With Embiid off the court this season, Howard is sporting a massive 45 percent rebounding rate. And in four starts this year, Dwight is averaging 8.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and a block per game. He’s $3,500 on DraftKings. Finally, Ben Simmons would dominate the peripherals, as both his rebounding and assist rates are flirting with the 25 percent mark without Harris and Embiid, while he’s averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute in the split.
The Pacers are a bit banged up entering this game, too. Malcolm Brogdon missed Saturday’s game with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for this contest. TJ McConnell got the start at point guard and was on the bench for just two minutes, logging 46 minutes. He scored 17 points to go along with 12 assists and six rebounds. It is tough to project 46 minutes again, but Jeremy Lamb is also questionable, so the minutes should at least be in the high 30s if he also sits. Brogdon’s absence is huge, as he is fourth in all of basketball in touches per game on the year (92.1) while his 7.3 average minutes of possession per game are tied for the seventh-most in the league. When he’s off the floor this year, McConnell does all of the facilitating, sporting a massive 33 percent assist rate while averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, Domantas Sabonis would see an uptick in usage, though he’s already second in the league in touches per game. Because he’s still $10,100 on DraftKings, I’d actually only love Sabonis if Embiid is ruled out. With Embiid off the court this season, Philadelphia’s defensive rating drops by about nine points, while their plus/minus drops by over 12 points. I also would have no issue with Justin Holiday at $5,100, as he’d be locked into 32-35 minutes and averages just under a fantasy point per minute with Brogdon off the court this season.
Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic
DAL -6.5, total: 221
Nikola Vucevic is coming off another fantastic game, scoring 34 points with eight rebounds and four assists. The Magic continue to play through their All-Star center, as Vucevic is sporting a 33.2 percent usage rate and 34 percent rebounding rate over the last two weeks of play. This is a perfectly fine matchup to go right back to Vucevic, facing a Dallas team that is surrendering the fifth-most points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (8.6). That bodes well for Vucevic, whose 6.4 points per game this season as the roll man is good enough for second-most in all of basketball while his 5.4 such possessions per game also rank second. The rest of this team remains rather underwhelming. As I’ve discussed, Evan Fournier’s peripherals have been much better with Aaron Gordon out of the lineup, which makes him more viable at his elevated price tag than if he were just providing points and three-pointers.
For Dallas, Kristaps Porzingis, who returned from a three-game absence on Saturday, is listed as probable again for this contest. Against a slow-paced Magic team, I view both Porzingis and Luka Doncic as perfectly fine plays, but not players that you have to necessarily force into your lineups. Luka is under $11,000 on DK, however, which is always a time where I’ll want to make sure I have some exposure. The rest of this team is very tough to get excited about because Luka and KP dominate the usage but at $4,600 on DraftKings, Dorian Finney-Smith is a viable play in cash formats. In competitive games, DFS plays around 35 minutes each night and at the end of the day, there is value in those kinds of minutes.
Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans
UTA -7, total: 235.5
Zion Williamson continues to shine and his price has now come up to $9,000 on DraftKings. We are seeing more peripherals from Zion, as he’s being used more in the pick and roll as both a ball-handler and a roll man. He’s now recorded at least four assists in eight of his last 10 games while the rebounds are up, too. Zion has been one of my favorite plays for each of the last few slates but on this slate, he’s more of a secondary option for me while no one else on the Pelicans really stands out. Lonzo Ball has been a solid floor option, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games. But at nearly $7,000 on DK, I don’t see a huge ceiling from him, especially against a strong Utah defense.
Speaking of Utah, surprise, surprise. I like Rudy Gobert tonight. His price is just always very affordable and you know exactly what you are going to get from him. Gobert is averaging 23.0 rebounding chances per game this season, tied for the most in basketball, while he’s recorded a double-double in seven of his last 10 games. This is a sneaky good matchup for him, as the Pelicans are coughing up a 67.5 percent field goal percentage at the rim this season, good for the third-worst rate in basketball. Meanwhile, 88 percent of Gobert’s shot attempts this season have come at the rim, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Outside of Gobert, the Jazz aren’t that enticing because of their price tags. With Mike Conley back in the lineup, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles are a bit too expensive while Donovan Mitchell is a viable option but not a priority. He’s scored at least 40 fantasy points in every game since Conley returned to the lineup.
Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls
DEN -5, total: 227.5
This game is pretty simple, honestly.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray find themselves in fantastic spots here. Chicago plays at one of the fastest paces in the league and struggles on the defensive end. They are also allowing the fourth-most post-up points per contest on the season (6.5) while Jokic is second in the NBA in both post-up possessions (5.8) and points (5.8) per game on the year. The Bulls also are allowing the seventh-most points per game off handoffs (6.0), which is great for Jokic, who is averaging the most touches per game in the league (102.0), a lot of which come off the dribble handoff, which is a staple of this Denver offense. Of course, that bodes extremely well for Murray, whose 3.6 points per game off handoffs rank second in the league. Meanwhile, Chicago ranks 28th against primary ball handlers and 28th against scorers, per our advanced DVP, which is great for Murray. And if Murray runs a decent amount of pick and roll in this game, he could really smash, as no team in basketball is allowing more points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll than Chicago (24.5) while also allowing the second-highest field goal percentage (46.2%). Outside of Murray and Jokic, Michael Porter Jr. has been much better as of late, recording a double-double in three straight games. He continues to play huge minutes with Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green sidelined and with both players off the floor this season, Porter is sporting a solid 24 percent rebounding rate while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute.
I’m only interested in Zach LaVine from the Bulls and at his price tag, he’s more of a runback option if playing Jokic/Murray. He’s been fantastic this season and had a tremendous month of February, averaging 30.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game.
Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs
BRK -6, total: 234.5
DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge returned to the lineup this past weekend, but the Spurs continue to deal with COVID issues. Derrick White, Devin Vassell and Rudy Gay have all been ruled out for this game while Keldon Johnson is questionable. That makes both DeRozan and Dejounte Murray solid options, even at their elevated price tags. This is a strong matchup for both players, especially Murray, as the Nets rank 21st against dimers, 22nd against primary ball handlers and 24th against crafty finishers. And with Brooklyn having a ball-dominant guard on the floor at all times, Murray will have plenty of opportunities for steals to add to his already impressive peripherals. DeRozan, meanwhile, possessed the ball for 7.2 minutes in his last game, up from his season average of 5.5 minutes. He recorded 32 points and 11 assists and with so many players out for the Spurs, you have to like him again here, especially against a Nets defense that is coughing up the fourth-most points (7.5) and sixth-most points per possession (0.99) to players off isolation this season. DeRozan, meanwhile, is averaging 3.6 isolation points per game, the 12th-most in the league. Finally, I want to like Aldridge in this spot. I really do. Brooklyn is an awful post-up defense, surrendering the most points per game to the post (7.6). The problem is that Aldridge isn’t posting up as much this season, but rather spotting up and actually rolling to the rim. In fact, his 6.1 points per game as the roll man are the third-most in all of basketball while he’s outside the top-20 in post-up points per game. His minutes and shot attempts also haven’t been where we’d want them to be as of late, making him a risky play at his price.
For Brooklyn, Kyrie Irving is still too cheap on DraftKings at $9,100. Despite playing more off the ball as of late, Irving is still getting his while the peripherals are nothing to scoff at either. He got priced up by $200 from his last game, but it just isn’t enough, and I view him as a very strong play in this game while James Harden is obviously in play with the volume he’s seen since Kevin Durant has been out of the lineup.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets
HOU -2.5, total: 217
This game is really interesting, as it features two of the worst fastbreak defenses in the league. No team in basketball is coughing up more transition points per game this season than the Rockets (23.6) while teams are getting out on the break 18.5 percent of the time against them, which is the highest rate in basketball. That bodes well for Collin Sexton, who is averaging 5.0 transition points per game this season, tied for the 10th-most in the league. He is also shooting a solid 61.3 percent from the field in transition, and I think this is a solid spot for him. It is also a great spot for Jarrett Allen, who is dominating the boards since entering the starting lineup full time. Over his last seven games, Allen is averaging 21.7 rebounding chances per game, good for the fifth-most in the league. And during that span, he is converting over 61 percent of those opportunities into rebounds. $8,500 may seem like a steep price tag but with the Rockets no longer having a true center on the floor, Allen should be able to do whatever he wants against this weak interior defense.
For Houston, Victor Oladipo should be back in the lineup here, and I actually like him quite a bit. As I mentioned, both of these teams struggle to defend in transition, as the Cavaliers are allowing the third-most transition points per contest at 21.9 per game. They are also allowing teams to get out in transition 17.6 percent of the time, which is the second-worst rate in basketball. Oladipo leads the Rockets in transition scoring, averaging 4.3 points per game off the play type. Both he and John Wall are dominating the usage right now and with the Cavaliers defense falling off a cliff over the last month or so, I think both guards are very strong options in this game, though I do prefer taking the savings with Oladipo.
Charlotte Hornets @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -6, total: 233
The Portland side of this game is very interesting. Of course, you know to play Damian Lillard. Over the last 10 games, Lillard is tied with Luka Doncic for the highest average time of possession per game (9.7 minutes) while the usage rate hovers around 33 percent with CJ McCollum off the floor. And there is nothing wrong with this matchup either. However, I really, really love Gary Trent here at $6,000. He’s been under 30 fantasy points in each of his last four games, but this is the game where he breaks out of it. Trent has attempted at least 10 three-pointers in five straight games and while he hasn’t been converting a high percentage of them, this matchup bodes well for him to do just that. 40.1 percent of the points scored against the Hornets this season have come from beyond the arc, good for the third-highest rate in basketball. No team in the league plays more zone defense than Charlotte, which tends to lead to plenty of production from three-point land. Since entering the starting lineup, Trent has been a near-lock for 35 minutes and 16-20 shot attempts, and assuming that trend continues in this game, I love his potential. This could also be a sneaky good spot for Robert Covington, too. Charlotte is banged up right now and if Cody Zeller is out again, we should see plenty of minutes at the five from P.J. Washington. If that’s the case, Portland could go smaller with Covington at the center, giving him more rebounding potential, while he offers a similar three-point ceiling as Trent, too. Of course, if this happens, it would hurt Enes Kanter’s minutes, though he remains in play in tournaments because of his potential in this awesome matchup. No team is allowing more rebounds per game to opposing centers than the Hornets this season (16.6) and if Kanter can play his 32 minutes or so, he could have an awesome game.
If the players who were out for Charlotte on Sunday remain out, feel free to go right back to LaMelo Ball, P.J. Washington and Malik Monk. Terry Rozier would also be in play, but his price tag scares me given how much lower his floor is when his shot isn’t falling. Washington is coming off a career-best 42 points against the Kings and if he continues to get plenty of minutes at center, his ceiling is much higher in fantasy.
