Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Sure, Sunday might be the final week of the NFL regular season, but we also have a ton of NBA action available. Per usual, we will focus on the seven-game main DFS slate that starts in the early evening where the status of two of the game’s biggest names is the main story.
Let’s get after it, shall we?
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
LAL -9.5; total: 222.5
LeBron James has been questionable with his ankle injury for each of the last three games, yet has played in all three, so I tentatively expect him to suit up for this game. Of course, if he doesn’t, more responsibilities will be thrust upon the rest of the Lakers. In nearly 60 minutes of court time without LeBron this season, Dennis Schroder’s usage rate sits at 32.6%, the highest mark on the team and a massive 7.7% jump, which is an absurd number. He also quietly has a 25% rebound rate and 19% assist rate, while averaging 1.38 fantasy points per minute. With LeBron not playing nearly as much point guard this season, his touches per game have dropped by about 12 and if he sits out, Schroder would dominate the ball-handling duties.
Meanwhile, Anthony Davis is under $10,000 on DraftKings and sporting a 28.1% usage rate and 1.21 fantasy points per minute with James off the floor this year. In 2019, those numbers were at 32.9% and 1.59, respectively, though the Lakers have more weapons this season. Still, Davis is in play at this price tag regardless of James’ status, especially coming off his best game of the season. The Lakers are still running a lot of their offense through the post, as Davis is averaging 4.4 post-up points per game so far this season (seventh-most), while Memphis is coughing up the third-highest post-up field goal percentage in basketball at 67%. They also allowed the sixth-highest mark in 2019, as they continue to miss the defensive prowess of Jaren Jackson.
Finally, Montrezl Harrell has been great with the Lakers, but his price is a bit too high at $6,300 on DK. Maybe you can consider him if LeBron gets ruled out but even then, Harrell is more impacted by Davis than James.
Memphis, meanwhile, has now played two games since Ja Morant suffered his ankle injury. In those contests, Kyle Anderson leads the team with 65 touches per game, just ahead of Tyus Jones (64). With Morant sidelined, Anderson is playing much more point forward, giving him a higher combination of floor and ceiling. He’s averaging an impressive 36.4 fantasy points per game, but his price is up due to his recent performances. There is also a risk the Lakers dominate this game, limiting the minutes for the starters. That is exactly why I’d only look to Jonas Valanciunas in tournaments. He is $8,000 on DK and while he did play 39 minutes in Memphis’ last competitive game, it is fair to wonder if that was an outlier. Or is Memphis just going to play him huge minutes with Morant and Jackson out? If the Grizzlies keep this game closer, Valanciunas is surely going to be why and he’s been great, posting a double-double in every game this season. No player is averaging more rebounding chances per game than Valanciunas (22) and he might play huge minutes here to combat the Lakers size. Finally, Desmond Bane wouldn’t be the worst value play. His minutes are solidified if Grayson Allen is out again.
Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -8.5; total: 242.5
Russell Westbrook has played four games this season. Russell Westbrook has four triple-doubles this season.
He’s legitimately seeing OKC Russ usage, sporting a near 29% usage rate, 34% rebounding rate and 33% assist rate. His 18.3 rebounding chances per game rank sixth in the NBA and easily lead all guards, as his Washington teammates are seemingly letting him grab rebounds. During his final three seasons with the Thunder, Westbrook averaged 17.1 rebounding chances per game, so he is obviously a triple-double threat each night. If we’re being honest, his price tag is probably still a little too cheap, which means you can use him here, though hopefully the Wizards can keep this game close. Bradley Beal, meanwhile, isn’t someone you simply cannot play when Russ is active, as he’s sporting a 34% usage rate when sharing the floor with Westbrook so far this season. Of course, his potential for peripherals take a hit and he’s over $9,000, making him more of a less popular GPP play.
I like Thomas Bryant as a player, and this is an advantageous matchup against the Nets. He should play 33-35 minutes if the game is close. My issue is that because Westbrook is grabbing so many boards, Bryant is suffering, sporting a 15% rebounding rate alongside Westbrook this season. He also isn’t being used in the pick-and-roll as much as last year, as his PNR frequency rate is down by about eight% this season.
The Nets have some really good players, apparently. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are both in the low-$9,000 range, price tags that aren’t by any means outlandish. If choosing between the two, I actually prefer Durant, who should be able to do whatever he wants against Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija. 33% of Durant’s field goal attempts so far this season are coming of the short-range variety, one of the higher marks in basketball. That bodes well for him here, as the Wizards are allowing the highest field goal percentage in basketball from that part of the floor (54.5%). Of course, that isn’t to say that Kyrie is a bad play. He’s struggled a bit from the field over the last two games but has still been very good for fantasy. The question is if you play the secondary members of Brooklyn.
Caris LeVert has returned to his bench role and hasn’t played 30 minutes in each of his last two games. In fact, the only time he did reach 30 minutes is when Durant, Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie were all out for the Nets. And then there’s the frontcourt, where Jarrett Allen continues to produce, averaging 8.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game in just 22.3 minutes. At $5,600, he is risky but if you think this game is a blowout, Allen could get to 26 minutes and easily double-double in this friendly matchup.
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
DEN -8.5; total: 230.5
The Timberwolves are tough right now. They have been without Karl-Anthony Towns for the last three games, but no one has really stepped up for fantasy purposes. Both D'Angelo Russell and Ricky Rubio remain in the starting lineup and while Russell’s usage rate is over 30% with KAT off the floor this season, he’s been under 37 fantasy points in each of his last three games. However, in his last two games that he played full minutes, he’s attempted 16 and 19 shots. He is also averaging 9.4 possessions per game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler (11th), while Denver’s defense has struggled so far this season, allowing the second-highest field goal percentage to opposing ball-handlers. We know Russell has a serious ceiling, and I think a huge game is on the horizon. The rest of Minnesota is underwhelming, to be honest. Anthony Edwards has a 27% usage rate without Towns this year but doesn’t appear in line to play 30 minutes just yet. I wouldn’t hate Jarrett Culver if he starts again. He only played 21 minutes last game but was in foul trouble for most of that contest.
Don’t look now, but Westbrook isn’t the only player averaging a triple-double this year. Nikola Jokic has been smashing, averaging 23-11-13. Picking up right where he left off in the bubble, Jokic is averaging 106.6 touches per game, the most in the NBA. His price keeps climbing but I still have interest in him here, especially because Denver’s defense has been so bad that they have been playing in tight games. The Timberwolves are an awful defense, too, while they also allow the sixth-most points per game off hand offs (7.6), which remains a huge part of this Denver offense. That bodes well for Jamal Murray, too, who is averaging 3.3 points per game off the play type, the third-most in basketball. I like pairing the duo together in this one.
Meanwhile, Michael Porter will miss this game after missing Friday’s contest. Will Barton entered the starting lineup and played 36 minutes, though the production was lacking. $5,400 with MPJ out is a very fine price and I have no problem going back to him, especially since this is a spot Denver could feel somewhat comfortable playing him at the power forward position against Culver.
Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs
UTA -4; total: 220
LaMarcus Aldridge is once again questionable for the Spurs with a knee injury. He’s missed the last two games — during that stretch, Jakob Poeltl has been starting at the five, playing 20 and 24 minutes against the Lakers. Drew Eubanks, meanwhile, has logged 24 and 23 minutes in that span and is just $3,500 on DraftKings. DeMar DeRozan, meanwhile, sported a 28.5% usage rate and averaged 1.21 fantasy points per minute with Aldridge off the floor last season but over the last two games, it is Dejounte Murray who leads the Spurs in touches per game (76.0). He is also sporting a 25% rebounding rate with Aldridge off the floor so far this season, while Derrick White’s absence continues to lead to much safer minutes for Murray.
I’m perfectly fine going back to Rudy Gobert again here, as the center is just $7,200. He didn’t double-double last game but came awfully close. There could be some sneaky shot-blocking potential for him here, facing DeRozan and Murray, who rank fourth (19.4) and 23rd (12.0) in drives per game on the season. The Spurs are also playing up in pace this season, which makes this a lot more appealing of a San Antonio/Utah matchup than year’s past. Joe Ingles has played 30-plus minutes in each of his last two games and is just $4,700 on DK. He is still coming off the bench but could be a viable filler option if we don’t get a ton of value on this slate.
Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls
DAL -5.5; total: 225
Of course, we have to see if Luka Doncic is going to play in this game. He suffered a bruised quad Friday night and is questionable. If Luka sits out, plenty of value will open up from the Mavericks, as they would be missing their top two players. With Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis off the floor last season, Trey Burke’s usage rate jumped by 5%, while Tim Hardaway’s jumped up by nearly 6%. Jalen Brunson, meanwhile, sported a 24% usage rate and 19% assist rate with Doncic off the floor. However, the Mavericks didn’t have Josh Richardson last year, someone who can definitely handle the ball if Dallas needs him to. At $5,000, Richardson isn’t the worst play if Doncic is active but becomes really intriguing if he is ruled out. You could legitimately consider three or four members of the Mavericks Sunday if Luka is sidelined.
The Bulls, meanwhile, will remain short-handed, as Lauri Markkanen, Tomas Satoransky and Ryan Arcidiacono are all out again. Thaddeus Young averaged just over 0.90 fantasy points per minute with Markkanen off the floor last season and is still just under $4,000 on DraftKings. Otto Porter has been in the starting lineup over the last three games, however, and has scored 22, 57.5 and 19.5 fantasy points. Zach LaVine and Coby White are both very fairly priced and should have their minutes solidified with Satoransky and Arcidiacono out.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns
LAC -2.5; total: 217.5
The Suns are off to a great start because they are getting contributions from everyone. As a result, the fantasy outings by the three stars has been disappointing, though their price tags are now down across the industry. Chris Paul has finally logged 30-plus minutes in each of his last two games and if he continues to get that amount of run, his $7,000 price tag is too low. Meanwhile, Deandre Ayton is intriguing at $7,100, as you can still beat the Clippers from the inside. We finally saw him more involved in the offense last game, as Ayton took a season-high 13 shots, resulting in 22 points and 11 rebounds. Los Angeles is also allowing the second-highest field goal percentage to the post so far this season, while Ayton is averaging a healthy 3.2 post-up points per game, while sporting a 34.7% frequency rate off the play type. He has also been dominating the glass, sporting an impressive 38% rebounding rate.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors
POR -5; total: 234
The final game of the night is extremely intriguing. It features two teams that will play fast and struggle on the defensive end. Golden State still leads the league in pace, while ranking 29th in defensive efficiency. Portland, meanwhile, is 25th in defensive efficiency.
Stephen Curry has now scored 30 or more real points in two of his last three games and is still sporting a healthy 31.5% usage rate so far this season. The problem is that no one else on this team is very trustworthy. Draymond Green made his season debut last game but only played 18 minutes. Head coach Steve Kerr indicated that Draymond’s playing time should ramp up a bit Sunday night but that doesn’t sound like he’ll play a full allotment of minutes, which removes him from consideration for me. His presence also hurts the rebounding upside of Kelly Oubre. And Andrew Wiggins is wildly inconsistent, while his price is the highest it has been since the opening game of the season.
I’m starting with Damian Lillard for Portland, who just torched this Warriors team for nearly 56 fantasy points. Lillard has torched the Warriors over the course of his career and over his last 11 games against Golden State, Dame is averaging just under 55 DK points per game. And keep in mind the Warriors defense right now is arguably worse than it has been in years. The Warriors are also allowing the fifth-most points per possession to opposing pick and roll ball-handlers (1.02), while Lillard ranks second in the league in points per game as the pick and roll ball-handler (14). CJ McCollum has been very good over his last four outings, scoring at least 39 fantasy points in all of them, while eclipsing 50 points twice. He’s priced up, which is concerning with Lillard active, but this is a ceiling spot for him against a Golden State defense that is allowing 8.0 isolation points per game, good for the third-most in basketball. That bodes well for McCollum, who ranks 10th in the NBA in isolation points per game (3.6).
Finally, I like this as a buy-low opportunity for Jusuf Nurkic, who hasn’t been playing huge minutes this season. He was limited to 18 minutes in the blowout last game, while also picking up five fouls. The Warriors will play small ball more with Draymond back but at $6,400, Nurkic only has to play 25 minutes to offer a serious ceiling. He’s still averaging over a fantasy point per minute while sporting a 31% rebounding rate this season.
