Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
A new workweek is welcomed in with 10 NBA games on Monday. A handful of teams come in on the second leg of a back-to-back, while other teams have a variety of questionable tags.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons
Pace: PHI (4th), DET (25th)
Defensive rating: PHI (4th), DET (23rd)
After seeing this same matchup on Saturday, Joel Embiid once again comes into the slate with a questionable tag. Given the fact that he was able to suit up and ultimately play 35 minutes on Saturday (the second leg of a back-to-back, mind you), he seems to be trending more towards probable than doubtful. If he plays, we can go right back to the well at under $10,000 on DraftKings, as he just posted 33 points and 14 boards against this same Detroit interior.
Both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are cheap enough to consider in a game-stack if Embiid is active. That also means that they’d be far too cheap in the scenario where Embiid were to sit, as both produce at least 1.13 FPPM in that scenario. Dwight Howard would also become an elite value play, posting 1.15 FPPM with a 24.8% rebounding rate sans Embiid this season.
Per usual, Detroit is really only an appealing team if you’re looking for a run-back in a game stack. With Derrick Rose out, we should continue to see more minutes from Delon Wright and potentially Josh Jackson, but on a 10-game slate, it doesn’t stand out as necessary value. Jerami Grant will continue to serve as the go-to option on this team, sporting a 26.9% usage rate on the season.
Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers
Pace: TOR (19th), IND (18th)
Defensive rating: TOR (7th), IND (14th)
Coming into the second half of a back-to-back, both Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry are questionable once again for the Raptors after sitting out on Sunday. In their absences, it’s been Norman Powell and Stanley Johnson who have been seeing the biggest uptick in minutes. While Johnson has the edge in terms of salary, his per-minute production has left a lot to be desired. Powell, on the other hand, has been priced up to $5,200 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel. Unlike Johnson, however, he’s been incredibly productive while starting, topping 31 fantasy points in back-to-back outings. Should Lowry sit on Monday, Powell would be a top mid-tier target.
This would also continue to open up more touches for Fred VanVleet. While he hasn’t popped for the ceiling game we’ve been looking for, he held a 30.7% usage rate, 38.5% assist rate and posted 1.27 FPPM without Lowry and Siakam during the 2019-20 season, making him a fine play at his sub-$8k price tag. You can also make the case for Chris Boucher at his lowered price ($6,800 on DraftKings) regardless of the status of Siakam and Lowry, but there’s still a high level of volatility that accompanies him, having seen 23 minutes or less in three consecutive games. OG Anunoby would also be incredibly viable on both sites, as he’s demonstrated both an elite level of consistency as well as upside with Siakam out.
For the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis continue to be rock-solid cash game options, even if we haven’t seen them flash their ceiling over the last few games. Given their prices, they’ll likely come in at lower ownership on a 10-game slate, but these are two players that I’ll never argue against rostering, even if I don’t have a keen interest in them on Monday.
Myles Turner has been playing like a man amongst boys on the defensive end this season, averaging over four blocks per game and operating as the frontrunner for defensive player of the year. He’ll be virtually unowned given the pay-up options at center, making him an intriguing tournament option.
Jeremy Lamb is also worth mentioning for Indiana, as he remains cheap ($4,400 on DraftKings) and has posted a 22.9% usage rate this season while working his way back from injury. If you trust him getting over the 25-minute hump, he could be a worthwhile value option.
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Pace: CHA (20th), ORL (23rd)
Defensive rating: CHA (11th), ORL (18th)
The Hornets guards all find themselves within $200 of each other on DraftKings, making it incredibly hard to decipher who to roster. Devonte’ Graham is my preferred option, seeing that his minutes are the safest (37-40/game) while being the cheapest of the three. You can get away with LaMelo Ball in tournaments, but until he starts or gets 30+ minutes per game, he’s going to carry a high level of volatility at his price.
The Hornet to target on Monday is Gordon Hayward, especially on DraftKings where he’s $800 cheaper than he is on FanDuel. It’s simply a pricing error, as Hayward leads the Hornets with a 26.3% usage rate and posts 1.14 FPPM, making him far too cheap at $7,300.
For Orlando, Aaron Gordon sat out in their last game, which paved the way for Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier to siphon some additional touches. If Gordon remains out, both of the aforementioned players would be more viable than they already are given their reasonable price tags. This would also cement Gary Clark as a viable value play at minimum-price on DraftKings. He doesn’t come with a heap of upside, but given the fact that well over 50% of his shots come from beyond the arc, the three-point bonus on DraftKings operates as an added perk at his stone-minimum price.
If Gordon is in, however, he makes for an appealing play. I’ve hit on it over the last few articles, but he’s finally achieved point-forward eligibility on advanced DvP. This is an exploitable matchup for Gordon, making him a fine mid-range target given his all-around upside.
Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets
Pace: MIA (14th), BKN (5th)
Defensive rating: MIA (22nd), BKN (25th)
This is yet another game that we saw over the weekend. In that game, Bam Adebayo absolutely smashed his way to 60+ fantasy points and comes into the game on Monday in the same exact position to do it again. He’ll carry some significant ownership, but with Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler out, he sees a usage rate north of 28% while the Nets have offered literally no opposition in the paint, allowing over 60 paint points per game since the trade.
Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn remain viable, especially with their prices almost identical. Of the two, Nunn has shown the higher ceiling and frankly, more consistency with Herro and Butler out, making him my preferred option.
For Brooklyn, we’ve now had multiple games with the big three and have seen that they can all get there in the same game. While it’s not entirely likely this happens, it’s feasible. With that said, all three are rather under-priced, with Kyrie Irving being the cheapest even after being arguably the most consistent since his return. He’s logged at least 48 DraftKings points in each game since he returned, making him the best dollar-for-dollar option of the trio. From there, Durant is the preferred option over Harden, as he’s demonstrated a bit more stability than Harden has since his debut with Brooklyn.
Outside of the big three, Joe Harris is the only other viable player on Brooklyn simply because there isn’t enough outstanding usage for the supporting cast. Harris showed his upside last game with the star drawing so much defensive attention, as he shot 7-12 from beyond the arc. While this isn’t a baseline performance to expect going forward, it’s certainly one that’s repeatable in this offense.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Pace: LAL (15th), CLE (27th)
Defensive rating: LAL (1st), CLE (6th)
On a 10-game slate, there’s bound to be a game or two that aren’t worth targeting compared to the rest. On Monday’s slate, this is the one. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis both under $9,400 on DraftKings, they’re easy to fit alongside another superstar, but the supporting cast is too hard to trust. With so many blowouts and all of the usage funneling to the two stars, there are simply better options on the slate than Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and company.
The Lakers are never a team that I tend to attack in DFS, especially on a full 10-game slate, so my interest in the Cavs here is virtually non-existent. If you’re so inclined to play a Cavs player, Collin Sexton makes the most sense in the $7k-range, but again, it’s an incredibly risky investment against the top defensive unit in the NBA.
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
Pace: DEN (26th), DAL (21st)
Defensive rating: DEN (20th), DAL (15th)
Two awful defensive units and two of the top three MVP candidates so far this season, what could go wrong? Absolutely nothing. This is a game where you are going to want one of either Nikola Jokic or Luka Doncic, with my lean being Doncic, who leads the league in drives per game against a Denver team that has given teams whatever they want at the rim.
Speaking of struggling around the rim, the Dallas defense hasn’t been much better, ranking in the bottom third of the NBA in field-goal percentage within nine feet of the basket. Nikola Jokic should continue his dominance in this game, and I cannot argue if you want to prioritize him over Doncic, especially with their prices only $100 apart.
If you want to fade both of these studs, it would make sense to get some exposure to this game through Kristaps Porzingis. His price remains low for his role, as he’s posted a 26.3% usage rate and 1.25 FPPM since his return this season. His minutes seem stable enough to trust and until he’s priced up into the $9,000 range, it won’t be hard for him to return value.
Outside of those three, however, this game gets rather bleak. James Johnson remains viable for the Mavs as long as Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber are out, while Jalen Brunson remains viable as long as he starts with Josh Richardson out. Unfortunately, however, their ceilings are capped because of playing aside two high-usage players.
As for Denver, it’s reasonable to stick with Jokic here, as Jamal Murray has been far too volatile to trust on a 10-game slate, while the rest of the Nuggets haven’t provided much value. Michael Porter Jr. at $6,500 makes sense given the ceiling, but again, there are far safer plays elsewhere.
Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls
Pace: BOS (16th), CHI (2nd)
Defensive rating: BOS (17th), CHI (27th)
Similar to the Lakers/Cavs game, this is another game that just doesn’t get the juices flowing on a 10-game slate like some of the others do. Kemba Walker has been ruled out on the second leg of a back-to-back and Jayson Tatum is expected to return, but his conditioning could certainly raise some questions after so much time away. At $8,900, he’s certainly worth a dart throw in tournaments given his 60+-point ceiling, but that’s as far as I’d go.
His return will also spell some of the ceiling for Jaylen Brown, who’s been taking advantage of the additional shots and peripheral opportunities in his absence. There’s a chance we could see some additional Jeff Teague run with Walker and Payton Pritchard out as well. If he’s inserted into the starting lineup, he’d make for a viable value at $3,700.
On the Bulls side, Otto Porter is expected back, which muddies the frontcourt and makes Patrick Williams and Thaddeus Young just about unusable given their prices. The absence of Wendell Carter Jr. should continue to open up additional minutes for Lauri Markkanen at the five, but he’s been everything but impressive since Carter Jr. went down. He’s a find mid-tier target, but nothing to get incredibly excited about.
Zach LaVine is a phenomenal tournament option now that his price has dropped back to a reasonable range, as his 29.4% usage rate and 1.24 FPPM clips pace the Bulls rotation players and give him a 60+-DK point ceiling.
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans
Pace: SA (10th), NOP (24th)
Defensive rating: SA (9th), NOP (24th)
On the second leg of a back-to-back, it’s entirely possible that we see LaMarcus Aldridge rest of the Spurs. If this becomes the case, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and Trey Lyles would all see significant boosts in either production or playing time. At $7,700, it’s hard to argue with DeRozan, who’s played a ton more power forward this season, increasing his peripheral ceiling. In this case, Poeltl and Lyles would become viable values. The only gripe with Poeltl is the fact that he doesn’t carry power forward eligibility on DraftKings as Lyles does.
For the Pelicans, both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson remain viable, with Ingram being the preferred options considering the fact that his price has come down to almost match Zion’s. They’re almost identical in terms of usage rate and per-minute production, but the peripheral upside that Ingram has shown with consistency this season has him edging out Williamson on this slate.
Outside of the two forwards, however, it’s too hard to trust the Pelicans players in an overall passable game environment.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State
Pace: MIN (6th), GSW (3rd)
Defensive rating: MIN (26th), GS (19th)
Two teams top-20 in pace and in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency should make for a fantasy-friendly environment, and it starts with Stephen Curry. He’s simply too cheap at $9,200 on DraftKings against a defense that ranks 23rd against dimers, 22nd against primary ball handlers and 21st against scorers, per FTN’s advanced DvP.
Outside of Curry, it gets incredibly difficult to trust the Warriors. Draymond Green makes sense on DraftKings given his price and his peripheral upside while Kelly Oubre makes sense on FanDuel at only $5,200 for the same reasons, only with more scoring upside. James Wiseman, however, has gotten a touch too expensive for the volatility that he’s shown this season.
For Minnesota, the important news to monitor is whether or not D'Angelo Russell plays. If he’s out, we can go right back to the well with the underpriced pieces in Ricky Rubio and Malik Beasley, with Beasley being the preferred option with an exponentially higher ceiling given his 26.6% usage rate without Russell and Towns this season.
I also have some passing interest in Jarred Vanderbilt, who continues to see additional run with Juancho Hernangomez out, but the minutes are still rather volatile, making him a risky value option compared to others on the slate.
Oklahoma City @ Portland Trail Blazers
Pace: OKC (12th), POR (13th)
Defensive rating: OKC (21st), POR (28th)
While I don’t have much interest in the Thunder outside of Isaiah Roby with Al Horford out, as his price has yet to catch up with his production. You can also go to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for $8,100 given his 27% usage rate and 31.1% assist rate on the season, but he’s not a must on a 10-game slate.
For Portland, Damian Lillard should continue to command just about all of the offensive usage with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, posting a 31.9% usage rate, 30.2% assist rate and 1.42 FPPM on the season without these two. There’s also a good chance he goes under-owned given the prices on Doncic, Jokic and other studs around him.
Enes Kanter continues to be a fine target at his price, as he’s still averaging 1.17 FPPM without Nurkic and McCollum. Much like Myles Turner, however, he falls in that awkward price range for centers which could suppress his ownership.
Rodney Hood and Derrick Jones Jr. have seen an uptick in playing time sans McCollum, but they’re both painfully bad on a per-minute basis, making them usable values only if you absolutely need them.
