Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The three-game NBA slate Thursday is headlined by a potential finals preview between the Lakers and the Bucks, creating a star-studded DFS slate that is void of a good amount of value necessary to fit all the studs. With condensed ownership on such a small slate, finding those key lineup differentiators around said studs will be more important than normal Thursday.
Vegas odds are derived from DraftKings Sportsbook. All totals from the time of writing are posted. With that said, some games will not have totals posted if there is outstanding injury news.
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Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (228.5 total)
Pace: LAL (17th), MIL (6th)
Defensive rating: LAL (1st), MIL (11th)
The game that’s likely to garner the most attention on the slate from a real basketball standpoint will likely garner the same attention in terms of DFS, as it carries the highest total on the slate (with the last game yet to be posted as of this writing). Both games last season saw these teams combine for 216 points or less, so Vegas seems to think that there’ll be a faster pace Thursday.
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains cheap on DraftKings ($10,500) and averaged 33 points, 11 rebounds, 6.5 assists and a steal per game last season against this Lakers team. Given the fact that it’s a three-game slate, he should (rightfully) be the most popular spend-up on the slate.
It would also make sense to grab exposure to one (or both) of Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, especially if fading Antetokounmpo. Middleton has been shooting the lights out this season, sporting a shooting slash of 52.7/43.9/93.2 and makes for one of the strongest mid-tier plays on the slate, as he may be freed up with Holiday on LeBron James and Giannis on Anthony Davis. This is also a game where it’d make sense to target Brook Lopez, as his size will likely be utilized a ton to combat Davis down low. For $5,100, he’s a viable value piece.
The Lakers analysis rings the same tune that we’ve heard all season long with both LeBron and Davis questionable. Neither has missed a game yet this season, and we shouldn’t expect that to change Thursday. With both being so cheap, it’s not all that hard to pair one of them with Antetokounmpo in your lineup. You really cannot go wrong with either, but my priority would be James over Davis for $200 less.
If fading both Lakers studs, it’d be wise to grab exposure to the team via Dennis Schroder, who sports a 23% usage rate and averages just under a fantasy point per minute, as he’d be the key offensive piece that’s producing if those two aren’t. There’s also merit to rostering Montrezl Harrell with the same philosophy in mind, especially if you expect him to get close to 30 minutes in a close game.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz (-6.5, 217.5 total)
Pace: NOP (26th), UTA (25th)
Defensive rating: NOP (23rd), UTA (6th)
After seeing the Jazz win by 16 in this same matchup Wednesday, Vegas seems to think this go-around will be relatively closer.
With Lonzo Ball back in the rotation for the Pelicans, we saw Nickeil Alexander-Walker head back to the bench, while still operating as one of only three Pelicans who saw more than 30 minutes of playing time. Based on his price and the fact that he’s rather immune to gamescript, he makes sense as a value play given the upside.
The presence of Ball hasn’t really hurt the production of Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram at all this season, as both carry usage rates over 28% while producing at least 1.13 FPPM. While Ingram’s metrics are incrementally better, Williamson comes with an $800 discount, making him the preferred play here after his 32-point effort against the Jazz Wednesday.
Eric Bledsoe, Josh Hart and Lonzo Ball all saw between 23 and 25 minutes, making all three of them far too hard to trust in anything more than large-field tournaments.
The Jazz should continue to be anchored by Donovan Mitchell (28 points, seven rebounds, four assists in last game vs. Pelicans), Rudy Gobert (13 points, 18 rebounds, three blocks) and Mike Conley (six points, 10 assists, two steals), which should make them the three most popular plays on the Jazz. Of the three, Gobert once against stands out as my favorite, as his $7,200 price is a far cry from what it should be and leaves a ton of room for ceiling production.
Mitchell is also too cheap at $7,900, but with Zion only $200 cheaper, he’ll likely garner more attention, making Mitchell a more appealing tournament play based on potential ownership.
Jordan Clarkson is another viable Jazz player, as the return of Joe Ingles failed to impact his opportunity. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 19.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and three assists in just under 30 minutes per game, which are extremely serviceable numbers for $6,100. Speaking of Ingles, his $4,300 price tag is incredibly appealing on a three-game slate, especially if we get word of an uptick in minutes (18.4 last game).
New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors
Pace: NYK (30th), GS (3rd)
Defensive rating: NYK (5th), GS (14th)
The Warriors are on the second leg of a back-to-back and draw one of the worst possible matchups in terms of DFS production, as the Knicks rank dead last in pace and top-five in defensive rating. Regardless, Stephen Curry is hard to get away from if you want to spend up at the guard position. He’s averaged 1.38 FPPM this season on the back of a 31.6% usage rate and 32% assist rate, making him one of the best overall plays on the slate.
Kelly Oubre ($5,700) and James Wiseman ($4,500) follow Curry as my top Warriors options, especially with their prices baked in. Oubre has started to see his production normalize (in a good way), averaging 19.5 points and 6.5 rebounds over his last two games while, most importantly, shooting 45% from the field. Wiseman has topped 22 FanDuel points in three of his last four games, with two of those games going for more than 33. He’s seen 25 or more minutes in all three of those games, while the fourth game was a 12-minute outing due to severe foul trouble. As illustrated below, this is a phenomenal matchup for the rookie center, per advanced DvP:
Because it’s only a three-game slate, you can make the case for both Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, I just wouldn’t consider them priority plays like I would others on the Warriors.
For the Knicks, this is a phenomenal spot to target both Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, players who see 37-plus minutes and thrive in pace-up spots. Randle has the higher floor/ceiling combination, averaging 1.26 FPPM with a 27.8% usage rate and 28% assist rate, but he’ll cost you an arm and a leg compared to Barrett. While Barrett carries more volatility, he’s also more likely to come in lower owned and maintains a rock-solid role in the offense, logging at least 15 field goal attempts in all but four games this season.
Mitchell Robinson ($6,000) is finally seeing more than 30 minutes per game, which puts him squarely in play given his per-minute upside, but I can’t recommend prioritizing him over Wiseman for $1,600 cheaper in single-entry formats.
With Alec Burks on track to suit up and Austin Rivers trending in the opposite direction, we could see expanded opportunities for Burks, Immanuel Quickley and Elfrid Payton. Of the three, Quickley makes the most sense at his $4,100 price tag considering the fact that he averages over a fantasy point per minute. If he sees 20-plus minutes, he could be one of the best value options on the slate.
