Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Saturday’s seven-game DFS slate around the NBA features pretty much everything. Stars, value, injuries, enticing games and uglier games.
Let’s break down what stands out from each contest and how we should attack this slate.
(Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -11, total: 222.5
Tobias Harris has been ruled out with a bruised knee. I already had plenty of interest in Ben Simmons in this spot, but Harris being out only helps that, as his usage and rebounding rate will climb, while there is also a better chance that this game stays close. Simmons has been more aggressive offensively as of late, attempting double-digit shots in each of his last four games and four of his last five. This is a very strong matchup for his skillset, as the Cavaliers are coughing up the third-most transition points per game on the season (21.8), as well as the second-highest frequency rate off the play type (17.7%). Simmons, meanwhile, is tied for eighth in basketball in transition scoring (5.0), while his 30.6% frequency rate off the play type is the third-highest mark in the league. Of course, Joel Embiid is always in play and I expect him to shoot better than the 8-for-33 he’s shot over the last two games. And with Harris off the floor this season, Embiid sees a 5.1% bump in usage. Meanwhile, Shake Milton, Mike Scott and Tyrese Maxey should all see more minutes in this game. Milton sees a 4.4% bump in usage with Harris off the court (28.2%), while averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute in the split. And if Scott gets the start, he’d be a viable value plat at just $3,000 on DraftKings.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are a bit tougher here. For starters, they are facing one of the best defensive teams in basketball, while their price tags are also pretty high. Collin Sexton should see plenty of usage and shot attempts, but he’ll also see Simmons, who is the best on-ball defender in the NBA right now. And at $7,500, I really don’t love his potential in this spot. Jarrett Allen has been fantastic and still presents upside at this elevated price tag. Over his last four games as the full-time starter, Allen is averaging 21.3 points, 14.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 3.0 blocks per game. During that same span, Allen is also averaging 22.5 rebounding chances per game (fourth-most), while converting nearly 66% of those opportunities. And with Andre Drummond off the floor over the last two weeks, Allen is sporting a 41% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards
WAS -4.5, total: 237.5
The Timberwolves will be without Malik Beasley for the next 12 games as he serves a suspension. With D'Angelo Russell already sidelined, the usage should be dominated by Karl-Anthony Towns, who is also facilitating more as of late. Over the last week, Towns is sporting a healthy 20% assist rate to go along with a 32% rebounding rate and 31.6% usage rate during that span. Towns makes for a very good play tonight, while the rest of this Minnesota team is also interesting. Rookie Anthony Edwards is sporting a massive 33.1% usage rate with both Russell and Beasley off the court this season, and that number is still at a healthy 28% if you place KAT on the floor in that same split. He should log huge minutes in this game and if his shot is falling, Edwards has a solid ceiling in this spot. Meanwhile, Jaylen Nowell and Josh Okogie will see more minutes and make sense as value plays, though I’d be lying if I said they were players you’d be excited to get into your lineups.
Of course, everything from Washington starts with Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal. Westbrook has now recorded a triple-double in four of his last six games, and in the two games he didn’t accomplish the feat, he fell an assist shy in one and a rebound shy in the other. Westbrook’s 13.8 rebounding chances per game lead all guards this season, while his 4.9 transition points per game are tied for the 10th-most in all of basketball. Minnesota, meanwhile, is surrendering 22.6 transition points per game on the season, good for the second-most in basketball. They are also allowing the fourth-worst field goal percentage off the play type (58.0%). At $9,900 on DraftKings, Russ makes for a very strong play yet again. I also absolutely love Beal at just $9,200, as he’s still second in the league in usage rate (34.8%). He is also averaging a league-leading 4.9 points per game off screens this season, while the Timberwolves are surrendering the third-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens (5.6), as well as the highest field goal percentage (48.9%) and most points per possession (1.19) off the play type. Finally, Rui Hachimura is playing massive minutes right now, averaging just over 35 per game over his last five games. The ceiling hasn’t quite been there for tournaments but he’s a fine cash game play given the playing time.
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
DEN -7, total: 222.5
This is the second end of a back-to-back for the Thunder, so be sure to see if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and others are in the lineup. Al Horford rested Friday so he should be back in the lineup for this game. The Thunder will, however, remain without Hamidou Diallo, who is dealing with a groin injury. SGA has been very good as of late and has a very high floor, as the ball is in his hands a ton. His 7.5 minutes of possession per game are good for fifth-most in the NBA, while also averaging nearly 80 touches per game. I also don’t hate Theo Maledon at $4,900, as he’s logged at least 33 minutes in five of his last six games.
This is a smash spot for Nikola Jokic on the other side of this game. Oklahoma City is coughing up the 6.3 post-up points per game on the year, good for the fifth-most in the league, as well as the second-worst field goal percentage (55.2%) and third-most points per possession (1.03) off the play type. Jokic, meanwhile, is averaging the second-most possessions (6.0) and points (5.9) per game from the post this year, while shooting just over 52% off the play type. In two meetings with the Thunder this season, Jokic is averaging a healthy 56.6 fantasy points per game and I like his chances of hovering right around that number again this time around. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray continues to dominate, going for 34-6-6 in his last outing. Over his last six games, Murray is averaging 33 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 54.1 fantasy points per game. I talk about it all the time but when he’s rolling, Murray is a player you want in your lineups. While he’s not my favorite play from this game, playing Murray tonight is obviously not a foolish decision. And we’ve now seen Michael Porter log at least 40 minutes in consecutive games and with both Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green once again ruled out for this game, he has a great chance of flirting with that number once again. With both players off the floor this season, Porter is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute, while sporting a solid 22% rebounding rate. If he continues to play huge minutes like this, we know Porter has slate-altering potential.
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks
NYK -1, total: 220
Elfrid Payton missed New York’s last game with a hamstring injury and is listed as doubtful for Saturday’s contest. With Payton out last game, we saw Derrick Rose enter the starting five, logging 28 minutes and scoring 30.2 fantasy points. Since being acquired by New York, Rose is sporting a strong 26.5% usage rate, while averaging 1.99 fantasy points per minute. His price has come up over $5,000 on DK (as it should) but I still think he’s a solid option here, especially if the game stays closer and he can play upwards to 32 or 33 minutes. Of course, rookie Immanuel Quickley continues to produce, as he is coming off a game where he scored 25 real points in just 20 minutes. However, it is difficult to trust him in fantasy right now because head coach Tom Thibodeau just hasn’t been willing to give him huge minutes on a consistent basis. Outside of Rose, Julius Randle is perfectly in play but I’d be lying if I said he was anywhere close to one of my favorite plays of the slate.
The Pacers played Boston Friday night, but I doubt we’ll see anyone rest here. While Indiana is playing faster this season (12th), they still aren’t playing at an elite pace, while we know that no team is slower than the Knicks this season. That said, this clearly isn’t my favorite game to target, though I do think Myles Turner is interesting. He’s coming off a very strong game against the Celtics, scoring 17 points to go along with 10 rebounds and three blocks. Turner has now blocked 19 shots over his last six games and now faces a New York team that is surrendering the second-most blocks per game to opposing centers on the season at 3.05. Domantas Sabonis, meanwhile, is always a safe option, as his 100.9 touches per game trail only Jokic for the season. However, at $10,600 on DraftKings, he is also just $300 cheaper than Jokic, who is in a much better spot, while there are plenty of other players around his price tag that I prefer here.
Utah Jazz @ Orlando Magic
UTA -10.5, total: 220
This game also isn’t the most enticing for fantasy, as it features teams that rank 16th and 22nd in the league in pace. For Orlando, Nikola Vucevic is going to be a strong option basically every single game given his usage and rebounding with seemingly everyone on the Magic out. Only Joel Embiid is averaging more post-ups per game than Vucevic over the last 10 games (13.3), as the Magic are just playing through their All Star center through the post. This definitely isn’t the best matchup for Vucevic, who is still $10,000 on DraftKings, but he won’t be nearly as popular as he has been.
Utah, meanwhile, continues to roll. Rudy Gobert is $7,400 on DraftKings, which is still a perfectly fair price tag. But on this slate and in this matchup, I’m not as excited about him as I usually am. The same can be said for Donovan Mitchell at $8,500, who has still been very good since Mike Conley returned to the lineup. No one from this entire game stands out as a priority play, though I do like Bojan Bogdanovic at just $5,000 on DraftKings. We know he can get hot from beyond the arc at any moment and Orlando is surrendering the sixth-most points per game to opposing shooters off of screens this season (5.3), while Bogdanovic is 15th in the NBA in points per game off the play type.
New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs
NO -3.5, total: 230.5
What else can you say about Zion Williamson? He’s scoring at a ridiculous rate right now, scoring at least 20 points in each of his last 10 games. And over his last six contests, Zion is averaging 30.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 48.3 fantasy points per game. The Pelicans are finally beginning to use him more in the pick and roll, both as a ball-handler and roll man, which is why we’ve seen him collect at least four assists in each of his last six games. With how efficient has been scoring the basketball, if the peripherals are here to stay with Zion, an $8,900 price tag on DraftKings still isn’t high enough. There is nothing wrong with this matchup either, as the Spurs are coughing up the fourth-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll (21.3), which is suddenly part of Zion’s game. Meanwhile, this is also a solid spot for Brandon Ingram, as the Spurs rank 26th against primary ball handlers, 23rd against crafty finishers and 24th against point forwards on the year, per our advanced DvP tool. Outside of those two, Lonzo Ball has been pretty consistent as of late, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in five straight outings. The Spurs also rank 26th against dimers this season but at his price, I still view Lonzo as more of a cash play than GPP option.
The Spurs, meanwhile, could be decimated here. A handful of players — including Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Devin Vassel and Rudy Gay — are out for COVID-19 protocols, while DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are both questionable. Aldridge returned from a six-game absence the other night but suffered a wrist injury in the process. If he is out of the lineup again, Jakob Poeltl and Trey Lyles would see bumps in minutes and rebounding. However, even at nearly $8,000 on DraftKings, it is hard to not love Dejounte Murray, who has scored 50-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. Murray is already averaging the most rebounding chances per game on the team (11.6) and now the Spurs will be short-handed. He’s a legitimate triple-double threat every night but especially in this game, while Lonnie Walker makes plenty of sense as a value play at $4,300. Finally, if DeRozan is in the lineup, I really like him tonight. The usage should be there, especially if Aldridge sits, while the matchup is solid. The Pelicans are allowing the fourth-highest field goal percentage in basketball at the rim (67.4%), while DeRozan is averaging 19.0 drives per game, the fifth-most in the league.
Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets
BRK -4, total: 235.5
This game is pretty simple. Just play the studs. Luka Doncic is coming off an awful game against the 76ers, as Ben Simmons shut him down. He should bounce back against a Brooklyn team that doesn’t have anyone close to the level of defender of Simmons. He’s obviously a fantastic play no matter what but would arguably be the best play of the slate if Kristaps Porzingis remains out with his back injury. He’s missed the last three games and during that span, Luka is sporting a 32.2% usage rate. And over the course of the season, Doncic has a 37.3% usage rate, 25% rebounding rate and 24% assist rate with Porzingis off the floor. Dallas started Boban Marjanovic against the 76ers last game, though that was likely to match the size of Embiid. I expect James Johnson or Dwight Powell to start if KP sits again, while Maxi Kleber will remain in the starting lineup. Hopefully Kleber starts at center, as Brooklyn continues to get destroyed by opposing centers. Although, if Porzingis is out, he’ll play plenty of five anyway, as Powell just isn’t playing many minutes at the moment. However, if KP is active, you have to consider him at $8,100 against a Brooklyn team that is surrendering the most points per game to the post (7.4), while also ranking 26th against scorers and 28th against rebounders for the season.
For Brooklyn, James Harden has finally reached $11,000 on DraftKings … and you should still probably play him. He is simply running this offense right now, averaging over 90 touches per game over his last 10 contests. And although Kyrie Irving has been playing way more off the ball since Harden joined the Nets, that hasn’t resulted in his peripherals suddenly vanishing, while he’s always a threat to score 30-plus real points. With Kevin Durant sidelined, both remain perfectly fine options here. Meanwhile, $5,700 is way too much to pay for DeAndre Jordan whether Jeff Green is active or not.
