Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After a huge slate Friday evening, Saturday offers a much lighter four-game DFS slate around the NBA. There is some news on this slate, but (at least as of when I’m writing), this is honestly one of the simpler slates I’ve had the pleasure of analyzing in a long time. Of course, that doesn’t mean you should stop staying on top of all of the news and updates.
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Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks
IND -1.5, total: 224.4
Trae Young is coming off his worst game in a long time, scoring just over 32 fantasy points against the Spurs. However, Young played a season-low 23 minutes, which was really odd to see. I don’t expect that to happen again Saturday, and perhaps the Hawks limited Young’s minutes knowing that they had another game the following night. The price has come back down below $10,000, which puts him firmly in play. In fact, all the Hawks starters saw limited minutes Friday night, as Kevin Huerter, John Collins, Clint Capela and Cam Reddish all played less than 25 minutes. Capela is the interesting player, however, because he’s now played 21 minutes in consecutive games. Hopefully this isn’t a sign of things to come, especially now that his price has fallen all the way down to $7,600 on DraftKings. Capela still posted a strong double-double last game and his 23.1 rebounding chances per game trail only Rudy Gobert for the season. It definitely isn’t the best matchup, though, facing Myles Turner in the middle, though Turner is an underwhelming rebounder. I do have some interest in Huerter, who, prior to last game, has been logging huge minutes with Atlanta still missing Bogdan Bogdanovic and De'Andre Hunter. He’s played at least 34 minutes in seven of his last 10 games and over the last week, Huerter is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. Huerter is also averaging a solid 5.0 spot-up points per game on the season, while also sporting a 32.4% frequency rate off the play type. That could bode well for him here, facing a Pacers defense that is surrendering 33.1 points per game to spot-up shooters, good for the fifth-most in basketball. They are also allowing the third-most points per possession (1.12) and fourth-highest field goal percentage (42.5%) to the play type.
Meanwhile, after posting an underwhelming game against the Nets, Domantas Sabonis bounced back against the Pistons the other night, scoring 58.5 fantasy points. He’s still averaging an awesome 98.3 touches per game, the second-most in the league, while his 20.3 rebounding chances per game are third-most in basketball. There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as the Hawks play fast and can struggle on defense. They are also allowing the sixth-most points per possession (1.19) and fifth-highest field goal percentage (56.0%) to the roll man, while Sabonis is averaging 4.3 points per game as the roll man out of the pick and roll, good for the sixth-most in the NBA. Malcolm Brogdon has now failed to reach 40 fantasy points in each of his last six games, but this has to be the game he breaks that trend, right? He still leads the team with a near 27% usage rate, while his 91.2 touches per game are good for fifth-most in the league. Meanwhile, the matchup is ideal, as Atlanta ranks 26th against primary ball handlers and 25th against scorers, while also coughing up the third-most points per game to opposing pick and roll ball handlers (21.6). Sabonis and Brogdon normally correlate very well and I think they could both thrive Saturday.
Houston Rockets @ New York Knicks
NY -1, total: 212
The Rockets will be without Victor Oladipo for this game, as he’s nursing a knee injury. That obviously opens the door for John Wall, who is posting a massive 34% usage rate with Oladipo off the floor over the last two weeks. During that same span, Wall has a 26% assist rate while averaging a strong 1.25 fantasy points per minute. The matchup against New York definitely isn’t the best in the league, as they play slow with a strong defense, but Wall is too cheap given the fact that Christian Wood is still out and now Oladipo will be out, too. During that aforementioned span, Eric Gordon is sporting a healthy 27.5% usage rate with Oladipo off the floor, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. With Oladipo out, Gordon should rejoin the starting lineup and in eight starts this season, Gordon is averaging 22.8 points, 3.0 assists, 2.5 rebounds and 17.4 field goal attempts per game. $5,800 is too cheap for him with this role increase he is about to see. Finally, DeMarcus Cousins hasn’t been incredible since entering the starting five in Wood’s absence, while the Rockets have refused to play him huge minutes. In fact, he’s only logged 30 minutes twice during that span, though there were some blowouts mixed in too. The usage and rebounding rate are still there and Cousins is fairly priced at $6,500, but he’s not exactly a priority for me on this slate.
For New York, Mitchell Robinson is going to miss some time after fracturing his hand. We’ll likely see Nerlens Noel enter the starting lineup, but don’t be surprised if Tom Thibodeau gives Taj Gibson the start. Assuming Noel is starting at center, he makes for a very solid value play at $3,900, as he’s sporting a 30% rebounding rate with Robinson off the floor this season. He’ll remain a very low-usage player on this team, but he’s never been a player that needs a lot of volume to produce in fantasy, as he can score off putbacks and provides blocks, rebounds and steals. Meanwhile, Julius Randle’s rebounding rate slightly improves to 31% with Robinson off the floor, while the touches and usage have been there regardless. Playing alongside Derrick Rose has led to a slightly lower usage rate for Randle but he’s still providing in every category. The Rockets can be had via the post, as they are allowing the third-most post-up points per game this season (6.6), while Randle is averaging a solid 6.7 post-ups per game this year, good for the ninth-most in basketball. Finally, I don’t hate RJ Barrett at just $6,000 on DraftKings. We know New York plays slow but when they do get out in transition, it is normally with Barrett, who leads the team in transition points per game. Houston, meanwhile, is allowing 22.4 transition points per game this season, the third-most in the league.
Brooklyn Nets @ Golden State Warriors
BKN -4, total: 244.5
After missing all week, Kevin Durant has been cleared to return and will play here against his former team. This game could be fun and features a strong total, which makes sense when you consider Brooklyn can’t play defense and the Warriors play very fast. Meanwhile, 70.4% of the Nets games have hit the over this season, the second-highest mark in basketball, so expect plenty of points scored here. I expect Durant to play his normal minutes here and is very viable at just $9,600 on DraftKings. I also really like Kyrie Irving here, despite how good the Warriors have been against guards on the season. He’s been fantastic since returning to the team and this game will have plenty of pace. And while it isn’t exactly a bad idea to play Harden on any slate, he isn’t a priority for me here with Durant back in the lineup.
Stephen Curry has been playing at an MVP level of late, averaging 37.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 58.5 fantasy points per game over his last five games, while shooting just over 50% from beyond the arc during that span. Look for him to continue lighting it up, as Brooklyn ranks 27th against superstars, 28th against crafty finishers, 29th against scorers and 27th against primary ball handlers, per our advanced DvP tool. Meanwhile, Draymond Green continues to thrive, recording double-digit assists in each of his last five games. During that same span, Green leads the NBA in assist points created per contest (30.2), while his 12.4 assists per game also lead the league. Brooklyn ranks 24th against dimers and dead last against skilled centers and with Green playing more center due to the injuries in Golden State’s frontcourt, his fantasy totals have been much better. Finally, we are seeing Kelly Oubre play more power forward, which has helped him grab more rebounds like he did to start the season. He’s hauled in double-digit boards in each of his last two games and over his last six games, Oubre is averaging just under 34 fantasy points per game.
Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
UTA -6, total: 217.5
The Jazz are coming off the front end of a back-to-back and Mike Conley was again out of the lineup. He’s missed the last three games and during that span, Donovan Mitchell is averaging a strong 94.7 touches per game, the sixth-most in the NBA in that stretch. And with Conley off the floor this season, Mitchell is sporting a 31.7% usage rate, while averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute. $8,100 is too cheap for Mitchell if Conley is once again out but even if Conley is active, this is still a fair price for him, while Miami has quietly been really bad against scoring guards this season. The same can be said for Joe Ingles at $5,700, as that is a bit too cheap if Conley is out. He’s been starting the last three games, scoring 22.2, 38.7 and 40.7 fantasy points during that span. With Conley off the court this season, Ingles is sporting near 20% assist rate while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. Finally, DraftKings seemingly never prices Rudy Gobert up, even after scoring 50 fantasy points. Yes, this matchup against Miami isn’t the best in the league but Gobert leads the league in rebounding chances per game and is a virtual lock for a double-double. $7,100 is way too cheap for a player of his caliber.
Jimmy Butler has been ridiculous lately, averaging 80.4 touches per game over his last seven outings. During that same span, Butler is also averaging 22.5 points, 8.5 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game. He’s dominated the ball since returning to the lineup and his price also really hasn’t moved, as he’s always in that low $8,000 range. He’s really the only player from Miami that intrigues me. Bam Adebayo is always a fine option, but I just don’t think he should be over $1,000 more expensive than Gobert on DK and if I’m playing a center from this game, it’ll be Gobert, for sure.
