Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We roll on with a smaller five-game DFS slate around the NBA Thursday. This obviously isn’t the most complex slate in the world. As of right now, it is relatively straightforward, especially since there isn’t a handful of different stars to spend up on.
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Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics
BOS -3, total: 220.5
This is the second end of a back-to-back for the Raptors, who are coming off a win against the Wizards Wednesday night. I don’t imagine anyone will rest but as always, just keep an eye on the news throughout the day. The usual suspects produced for Toronto against the Wizards, but my favorite player from this team is once again Kyle Lowry, who is still too cheap at $7,300 on DraftKings. Lowry suffered a back injury against the Grizzlies but was good to go against Wednesday, scoring 21 points while adding five assists and four rebounds in 33 minutes. This matchup with the Celtics is middle of the pack for opposing point guards but Boston is allowing the second-most points per game off handoffs this season (7.0), as well as the most points per possession (1.14) and the highest field goal percentage (52.3%) off the play type. Lowry, meanwhile, leads the Raptors in points per game off handoffs (1.8), while averaging a gaudy 1.42 points per possession off the play type. Meanwhile, Chris Boucher is (hopefully) back to being a thing. He went off for 17 points, 15 rebounds and a pair of blocks in 25 minutes against Washington and is now averaging 28.5 minutes per game over his last four outings. $6,000 on DraftKings is too cheap of a price tag if Boucher, who is averaging nearly 1.30 fantasy points per minute, is expected to play 25-30 minutes. Boston’s interior is attackable, as they rank 24th against scorers, 27th against rim protectors, 22nd against skilled centers and 23rd against rebounders, per our advanced DvP tool. The Celtics are also allowing the second-most points per game off putbacks on the year (7.5). I’d still save him for tournaments in case Aron Baynes gets 28-30 minutes, but Boucher obviously has an insane ceiling.
For the Celtics, Jaylen Brown returned to the lineup Tuesday night after a two-game absence. He was great against the Jazz, scoring 33 points in 37 minutes and is probably a tad too cheap at $7,700. Over the last year and a half, Brown has emerged into one of the best spot-up shooters in basketball. Last year, he led the league in that department, and so far this season, Brown is averaging 6.0 spot-up points per game, good for the eighth-most in the NBA. The Raptors, meanwhile, are surrendering 33.8 spot-up points per game, the fifth-most in the league, making Brown my top Boston player tonight. Jayson Tatum, meanwhile, isn’t an awful option here but I’d be lying if I said he’s a priority for me tonight. Kemba Walker should once again play 30-33 minutes, but he’s struggled to shake the rust off, as he continues to struggle with his shot. I actually don’t mind Daniel Theis at $4,900 on DraftKings. He’s averaging 30.8 minutes per game over his last five full contests.
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets
MIA -2, total: 216
Jimmy Butler has been incredible since returning to the Miami lineup. He’s scored at least 44.5 fantasy points in each of his last six games. During that same span, Butler is sporting a 27.2% usage rate, 24% assist rate and 24% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.41 fantasy points per minute. Despite the great production, Butler’s price really hasn’t moved and over his last six games, he’s averaging right around 80 touches per game. There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as Houston ranks 29th against scorers and 28th against dimers on the season. Goran Dragic has also been ruled out again, which definitely doesn’t hurt Butler’s fantasy appeal. It also helps Kendrick Nunn, who is sporting a 24% usage rate with Dragic off the floor this season. He’s logged at least 30 minutes in each of his last 10 games and has started two consecutive games. Miami doesn’t play at a crazy pace, but Nunn does lead the team in transition points per game (3.4), while the Rockets are coughing up 22.7 transition points per game, the third-most in basketball. Finally, Bam Adebayo’s price tag is back down to where it should be, which means I have interest in him, regardless of matchup.
The Rockets have been blown out in each of their last two games, limiting the minutes for their key players. DeMarcus Cousins has been extremely underwhelming over the last two games, scoring 27.7 and 20.7 fantasy points. Of course, he’s hardly played any minutes in the fourth quarter, which certainly doesn’t help. His price has come back down below $7,000 on DraftKings which at least makes him interesting with Christian Wood still sidelined. He’s still sporting a 24.3% usage rate and 39% rebounding rate with Wood off the floor this season, while averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute. Boogie is worth a look in tournaments, but my attention is on John Wall, who is too cheap at $7,100 on DraftKings. He’s been right around the 40-fantasy-point mark in each of his last two games, while attempting 19 and 23 shots during that span. While Victor Oladipo was pretty good in his last game, I don’t think the price discrepancy should be this wide between the two Houston guards, which is why Wall is my preference.
Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons
IND -3, total: 217.5
Are you kidding me, Indiana? Facing a Brooklyn defense that had allowed 120 or more points in 10 of their previous 11 games, the Pacers failed to score 100 points. It was a massive letdown for this team, so it’ll be interesting to see how many people go back to Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon here against the Pistons. Sabonis was fine last night but nowhere near as good as we expected, while Brogdon has been under 40 fantasy points in each of his last five games. Still, both are at favorable price tags here and the matchup is strong, as Detroit ranks 26th against dimers, 29th against primary ball handlers, 25th against point forwards and dead last against rebounders, all of which are traits for Sabonis. Meanwhile, Jeremy Lamb remains out of consideration for me, as T.J. McConnell is playing well off the bench and is eating into his minutes, while Justin Holiday is playing 30-plus minutes each game but is still too expensive.
For the Pistons, Jerami Grant finally got priced up over $7,000 on DraftKings but at $7,400, I still don’t think it is enough. He’s been so good this season, averaging 24.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game, while sporting a healthy 26.5% usage rate. Grant should be closer to $8,000 given his role on this team, while the matchup is fine, as the Pacers are coughing up the fourth-most spot-up points per game on the season (33.8), as well as the second-most points per possession (1.14) and fourth-highest field goal percentage (43.1%) off the play type. Grant, meanwhile, has been a fantastic spot-up shooter this season, averaging a league-leading 7.4 spot-up points per contest, while his 6.3 spot-up possessions per game also lead the league. I also think Delon Wright is a perfectly fine play at $6,300. His minutes are through the roof right now, while he’s emerged as the Pistons primary ball handler. Over the last five games, he’s averaging just over 78 touches per game, while his 7.5 minutes of possession per contest during that span are good for ninth-most in the league.
Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -7.5, total: 224.5
Man, Orlando really can’t catch a break with these injuries. They just keep losing ball handlers left and right, as now Cole Anthony is nursing a shoulder injury and is questionable to play in this one. Frank Mason started the second half for the Magic in their last game and would likely start at point guard if Anthony is ruled out. He’d be a very fine value play if he starts, especially in a pace-up spot against this Warriors team. Because Anthony is averaging 5.88 seconds per touch this season (third-most), Mason would have the ball in his hands quite a bit if he starts, especially when you consider that in the three games he’s played in with Orlando, he is averaging 6.29 seconds per touch, which would rank second in the league if he qualified. Meanwhile, Evan Fournier, who has missed the last two games with a back injury, is also questionable to play. If he also sits, I’d have no issue going to James Ennis or Dwayne Bacon, while Terrence Ross would continue to play 30-32 minutes. With Fournier, Markelle Fultz and Aaron Gordon off the floor this season, Ross is sporting a solid 25.6% usage rate, while Nikola Vucevic’s usage rate is hovering around the 34% mark in the split. He is well over $9,000 for the first time in forever but it is obviously warranted, especially since he will continue to run the show for the Magic.
Stephen Curry is playing at an MVP level right now, as the Warriors have turned their season around a bit as of late. He’s scored at least 27 real points in seven straight contests, while shooting nearly 53% from beyond the arc during that stretch of games. Meanwhile, Draymond Green continues to play more center, which is resulting in more fantasy points. The facilitating is always there, too, as Green has recorded double-digit assists in each of his last four games, as he continues to post strong fantasy totals despite hardly scoring the basketball. The Magic rank 24th against dimers this season, meaning Green could record double-digit assists once again here. Finally, Kelly Oubre has turned it around as of late, averaging 20.4 points and 33 fantasy points per game over his last five outings, while shooting 47% from three during that stretch. He’s now priced right next to Andrew Wiggins and if choosing between the two, I’ll go with Oubre.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers
PHI -5.5, total: 230
Philadelphia’s main three players are good to go for this game, but they will be without one of their key role players. Shake Milton suffered an ankle injury late in Tuesday’s game against the Kings and is listed as doubtful. Seth Curry, who was also originally listed as doubtful, is now available to play. This makes Furkan Korkmaz a bit interesting, as he’s only played about 60 minutes without Milton on the floor. The two come in off the bench together with the second unit and split usage. However, with Milton off the floor this season, Korkmaz is averaging over 0.90 fantasy points per minute with a surprising 25% rebounding rate. Korkmaz could get to 25 minutes with Milton out and this matchup is obviously strong, facing a Portland team that is allowing a 45.5% field goal percentage on corner threes, the highest mark in the NBA. That could also bode well for Curry, who is shooting 68% off corner threes this season and 50% overall from three-point land.
Meanwhile, Joel Embiid continues to play like the league MVP and while the price continues to climb, it is tough to not consider him here, especially given the slate being so small and lacking elite, high end options. Enes Kanter doesn’t have a chance to slow him down and Embiid should put together another very strong game here. I also really like this $8,300 price tag for Ben Simmons, which is the range where I often look to him. You know the floor is always going to be there with Simmons but at this price and in this matchup, there is certainly a ceiling Portland ranks 23rd against dimers and 27th against primary ball handlers this season, while the Blazers are also coughing up the fourth-most transition points per game (22.0). We know Simmons is at his best when out on the break, but Tobias Harris quietly leads the 76ers in transition scoring, averaging 5.6 such points per game, a number that is also good enough for sixth-best in the NBA. He’s worth a look here, especially with Milton out because Harris usually comes in and runs the second unit when Simmons and Embiid are resting.
While Damian Lillard hasn’t had as many 60-point outings as we’d expect as of late, he should still never be under $10,000 with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic sidelined. Over the last 10 games, Lillard is 9th in the NBA in touches per game (84.9), while his 9.1 minutes of possession per game during that stretch are tied for the second-most in basketball. And while many might avoid Enes Kanter because of the matchup with Embiid, I actually think he is very interesting in tournaments. Yes, he could run into some foul trouble against Embiid, who is drawing a shooting foul on 22.1% of his shot attempts this season, one of the highest marks in the league. However, in four career games against Embiid where he’s logged at least 30 minutes, Kanter is averaging 45.2 DK points per game. Finally, Gary Trent is a solid option at $6,000 on DraftKings. He is playing huge minutes right now, averaging 35 minutes per game over his last five outings, while also averaging nearly 20 points per game since entering the starting lineup eight games ago.
