NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for April 8

We have seven more NBA games Thursday night, with some superstar players still out of lineups, shaking up the DFS slate entirely. Let’s break down all of the games and see what stands out the most. 

(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker, the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)

Bulls @ Raptors preview

CHI -4, total: 216

Toronto will remain shorthanded Thursday, as Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet have once again been ruled out. Lowry has been out since March 29, but VanVleet has missed just the last two games. During that stretch, DeAndre Bembry has entered the starting lineup, logging 32 and 30 minutes and scoring 35.2 and 31.2 fantasy points. Bembry isn’t a high-usage player, but he offers more peripherals than someone like Gary Trent, who is nearly $3,000 more expensive on DraftKings. At $3,800, Bembry once again makes for a great value play. Of course, you can still look to Trent, who is sporting a near 25% usage rate in nearly 100 minutes of action with both Lowry and VanVleet off the court since joining the Raptors. Although he’s on a new team, Trent is still scoring in a very similar way as he did in Portland. He is averaging 3.6 points per game off screens, fourth in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Bulls are coughing up the fourth-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens (5.3), as well as the sixth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (43.6%). The safest player from this team, however, remains Pascal Siakam, who is averaging 82 touches per game over his last two games, up from his season average of 72.6. He is sporting a 27.2% usage rate with Lowry and FVV off the floor, while averaging 1.28 fantasy points per minute. This is a very strong matchup for Siakam, too, as our advanced DVP tool suggests.

Finally, I think you can go back to Malachi Flynn at $4,700 on DraftKings, who is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute with both starting guards off the court this season. And if you are feeling lucky, Chris Boucher does make some sense in a GPP. 

Nikola Vucevic is coming off his best game as a member of the Bulls, scoring 32 points to go along with 16 rebounds and five assists. He attempted 29 shots in the game and since joining the Bulls, Vucevic is sporting a 28.5% usage rate and 37% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.51 fantasy points per minute during that stretch. $9,100 is a very fair price tag for Vucevic and this Toronto frontcourt hasn’t been anywhere near as strong defensively here in 2021. Zach LaVine, meanwhile, hasn’t shown that huge ceiling since Vucevic joined the Bulls but his price is still down at the $8,000 range on DK, putting him firmly in play. 

Lakers @ Heat preview

MIA -8, total: 204

The Heat have been a pretty easy team for fantasy when they are healthy. Play either Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo and take your strong combination of floor and ceiling, regardless of matchup. Victor Oladipo continues to start and is now logging 30-33 minutes, which is taking away from Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn. Coming off a triple-double, Adebayo is still very affordable at $8,400 and this Lakers defense is obviously much worse without Anthony Davis. Butler, meanwhile, has remained heavily involved for Miami, sporting a 22% rebounding rate, 22% assist rate and 27% usage rate on the season.

For the Lakers, Andre Drummond is probable to play after missing the last three games with a toe injury. He’s only played one game since joining the Lakers, so it is very possible that Drummond still hovers around that 20-minute mark, which makes him extremely risky in DFS. The Lakers are a tough team, too because they are all priced right about where they should be, while no one has really shown a huge ceiling in the absences of Davis and LeBron James. Volume is at least on Dennis Schroder’s side, as he’s averaging 90.7 touches per game over his last 15 outings, good for the fourth-most in basketball during that span. 

Cavaliers @ Thunder preview

CLE -4, total: 218.5

Darius Garland is coming off the best game of his young career, scoring 37 points to go along with seven assists against the Spurs. Garland is averaging just over 18 points per game during the second half of the season and has been more aggressive on the offensive end as of late. With Cleveland’s frontcourt so banged up right now, both Garland and Collin Sexton should continue to see plenty of volume and a matchup with the lowly Thunder is certainly nothing to fear. Sexton, meanwhile, has shown that solid floor because of his scoring, as he’s scored at least 20 real points in nine of his last 10 games. However, it is fair to wonder whether he should be $1,100 more than Garland. As for the frontcourt, Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance will once again be sidelined, paving the way for Kevin Love to continue ramping up his minutes. He played 26 minutes last game and while he didn’t have a great game, if Love is getting 27-30 minutes at $5,800 on DK, we have to pay attention. The Thunder can be had in the post, too, coughing up the fourth-most points per possession (1.02) and fourth-worst field goal percentage (53.3%) off post-ups. You can also give Isaiah Hartenstein a look, who scored 39 fantasy points in 27 minutes last game. Since joining the Cavaliers, Hartenstein is sporting a 34% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute during that span. 

For the Thunder, I am perfectly fine with Theo Maledon, who is coming off a strong game, at just $5,300 on DK. Over the last two weeks, he is sporting a healthy 26.5% usage rate and surprising 18% rebounding rate, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute during that span. Meanwhile, Aleksej Pokusevski has provided a fairly solid floor over the last week or so and is still fairly priced at $5,800. 

Bucks @ Mavericks preview

DAL -1, total: 226

Giannis Antetokounmpo is dealing with a minor knee issue but it will likely keep him out for the second consecutive game, as he’s listed as doubtful. That makes this game much, much easier. With Giannis off the court this season, both Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are sporting very favorable metrics. Middleton is sitting at a 31.6% usage rate to go along with identical rebounding and assist rates of 17%, while averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute in the split. Holiday, meanwhile, is sporting a 28.2% usage rate, 15% rebounding rate and 23% assist rate, while averaging 1.36 fantasy points per minute with Antetokounmpo off the floor. Bobby Portis also becomes very interesting, as he entered the starting lineup for the second time all year long against the Warriors Tuesday. He logged 28 minutes and scored nearly 34 fantasy points. Portis is sporting a 35% rebounding rate with Giannis off the floor this season, while averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute. I also have some moderate interest in Brook Lopez, who has a higher rebounding ceiling with Giannis off the court. Antetokounmpo’s 16.9 rebounding chances per game this year are the 11th-most in basketball, though Portis averaged 20 rebounding chances per game with Giannis out last game. 

The Mavericks are coming off the front end of a back-to-back against the Rockets where Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis both had good, but not great games. We’ve seen Porzingis sit on multiple back-to-backs this season so that is something we definitely need to keep an eye on throughout the day. If he sits (and Maxi Kleber remains out), Boban Marjanovic becomes interesting, per usual. Meanwhile, you can always play Doncic, especially if Porzingis is out, as the rates will climb through the roof. 

Suns @ Clippers

LAC -6, total: 222.5

Chris Paul and Devin Booker have been playing some great basketball as of late, and I am still perfectly fine with them at their prices, though I do prefer the savings with Paul. I also think Jae Crowder is a viable option at $4,900 on DK. He played 37 minutes on Wednesday night and he hauled in 12 rebounds. Finally, Deandre Ayton has been better as of late and is still a fine option at under $7,000 on DK.

I don’t know how many times I have to say it, but the price tags on both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are tough to ignore, regardless of the matchup. They give you a very strong combination of floor and ceiling and the Suns are actually allowing the most points per game off isolation this season (9.0), as well as the third-most points per possession off the play type.

Blazers @ Jazz preview

UTA -6, total: 231.5

Jusuf Nurkic missed Portland’s last game with a knee issue and is listed as questionable. Enes Kanter logged 36 minutes in that last game and certainly benefits with him out. With Nurkic off the floor this season, Kanter is sporting a massive 44% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute in the split. Meanwhile, Damian Lillard is coming off an absolutely awful game against the Clippers but don’t sleep on him tonight. The Jazz are quietly coughing up the second-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll (21.8), while Lillard is averaging the second-most points per game off the play type (13.8). 

Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell is coming off a huge game, scoring 41 points against the Suns. He attempted a season-high 35 shots, and his price has actually come down after the great showing. This is a great spot for Mitchell to keep it going, facing a Portland team that ranks 30th against dimers, 29th against primary ball handlers, 28th against scorers and 28th against crafty finishers on the season. Rudy Gobert has now posted consecutive strong double-doubles and nothing about this matchup makes me worried about him keeping it going.

Pistons @ Kings preview

SAC -7.5, total: 226

Jerami Grant has been ruled out with a knee injury, opening up some more opportunities for players like Hamidou Diallo, Sekou Doumboya and Josh Jackson. I think Diallo is worth a look at $5,100, especially since he’s been a very high-usage player over the course of the season. A matchup with the Kings is one of the best in all of fantasy so I think you can gamble on Diallo or Josh Jackson at $4,700, who is sporting a 29% usage rate and 16% rebounding rate with Grant off the floor this season, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute in the split. Meanwhile, I want to get to Mason Plumlee in this game, but the Pistons are not playing him huge minutes, as they continue to look towards the younger players in this lost season.

For the Kings, I really like Buddy Hield in this spot. The Pistons are coughing up the sixth-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens this season (5.0), while also allowing the fourth-most points per possession off the play type (1.04). That bodes well for Hield, who is averaging 2.9 points per game off screens this season, good for the fifth-most in the NBA. Meanwhile, Tyrese Haliburton is pretty safe at his $6,500 price tag, especially with Marvin Bagley still sidelined. Finally, De'Aaron Fox is a fine play but not my favorite in that price range, while the same can be said for Richaun Holmes.