Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Friday presents us with an eight-game NBA DFS slate to kick the weekend off, and for the first time in a while, we have a good idea of the injury report ahead of time.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Hawks at Sixers preview
PHI -9.5, total: 221.5
Thanks to the questionable NBA scheduling in the second half of the season, this is the second time we’ll have seen this specific matchup in the last 48 hours. The first game resulted in a 127-83 win for the Sixers, as the Hawks struggled to get anything going without Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic and the rest of the wings that have been inactive for months.
All three of Young, Clint Capela and Bogdanovic are questionable for this game, and given the 9.5-point spread, it feels likely that at least one of them sits out. The safe assumption would be Young, who’s missed four consecutive games, followed by Bogdanovic, who sat out last game. If one or both is out, this would be a huge bump to Lou Williams and Brandon Goodwin with Kevin Huerter on the shelf as well. If Capela sits, John Collins could slide over to the five with Danilo Gallinari at the four. This would obviously benefit them both and while Collins’ $6,600 price on FanDuel is enticing, it cannot be overstated how bad of a matchup this is. This would also benefit Nathan Knight and Onyeka Okongwu, but both are unnecessary value options in this spot on an eight-game slate.
The Sixers have a clean bill of health for this game and because of that, it’s easier for me to break this team down. With all three of the studs healthy, it’s hard to see a true ceiling out of any of them aside from Joel Embiid. At $10,200 on both sites, he’s an extremely attractive option in tournaments, though I wouldn’t go there in cash seeing that he’s failed to see 30 minutes in three straight games and given the projected game script here, could be in for a fourth game under that mark. The duo of Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are nothing more than large-field MME pieces for the same reason, plus the fact that their usage is far from the level that Embiid’s is.
Spurs at Celtics preview
BOS -4.5, total: 224.5
The Celtics expect Marcus Smart back for Friday’s game, while Kemba Walker is expected to miss his third consecutive game with an oblique issue. With Walker out this season, it’s been hard to argue with Jayson Tatum, who sports a 31.53% usage rate and averages over 45 DraftKings points per game in games without him this season. The one knock is his price, as Jaylen Brown offers a $1,000 discount on DraftKings while still posting a 30.63% usage rate sans Walker this season. Of the two, Brown is my lean.
This also makes Smart and Payton Pritchard interesting options. Smart should start at point guard and for under $7,000, there’s certainly upside here, especially given the fact that he’ll have added defensive peripheral upside guarding either Dejounte Murray or DeMar DeRozan. Pritchard should continue to come off of the bench, but for $4,300, he offers some great value for a player who’s seen 31 minutes per game over his last pair without Walker, taking 24 total shots.
Brutal news broke for the Spurs Wednesday, as Derrick White is expected to miss the rest of the season, leaving a bit of a void at the off-guard position. It was Devin Vassell who drew the start and saw 25 minutes last game (18.0 DKP) and even if we see that once again, it’s hard to fully get on board with the value play here because of how unpredictable Popovich’s rotations can be. I’d rather default to Lonnie Walker for $600 more after he saw 29 minutes last game without White and should continue to see at least that much playing time, even off of the bench.
I have interest in both Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan here, as they’ve been in great form and have recently flashed some astronomical ceilings. Murray, over his last two games, has averaged 23.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 2.0 steals per game, with one of those games against the Heat’s stingy defense. For $7,500, he’s my preference between the two and an elite tournament option. Jakob Poeltl is an interesting play here at his $5,700 price tag, as this leaves ample room for upside, but it feels like a reach that you don’t need to take on this slate if limiting the number of lineups you’re playing.
Wizards at Cavaliers preview
WAS -7, total: 226.5
The Wizards have been rolling lately as they look to solidify a spot in the play-in tournament in the East and should have a rather easy go of it Friday. Given the fact that the Cavs give up the third-most transition possessions per game (8.8) and the fifth-most transition points per game (20.8), it makes sense to look for a Russell Westbrook ceiling game if this stays close. Given the tear he’s been on and the matchup, it’s hard to argue that he’s not priced $1,000 too cheap. He‘s a top overall play on the slate.
Pivoting to Bradley Beal isn’t the worst option in the world if looking to save money, but I was a much bigger fan of the pivot when he was in the low-$9,000 range, not $9,800. Still, he carries enough upside to warrant consideration in GPPs, but I’m much higher on Westbrook at his price than I am on Beal at his. Rui Hachimura is the only other Wizards player that I would have interest in at $5,100, but his shot volume has been way down relative to what we saw before he got hurt. Since this lowers his floor considerably and caps his ceiling, I would limit my exposure to large-field MME builds.
The Wizards are still an exploitable defense, but the issue is that the Cavs are never a fun offense to rely on. Darius Garland is the safest option here, but his $8,000 price tag doesn’t leave a ton of room for upside, considering the fact that you’d really want 50 DKP out of him at this price to be super happy. If Collin Sexton is able to return, it’s even harder to justify Garland’s price with Sexton $100 cheaper and the primary offensive catalyst.
Jarrett Allen posted a 27-point, 12-rebound double-double against this Wizards team earlier in the week, and at $7,400, I’m OK taking a shot on him to do it again given the fact that the Wizards rank 21st against rebounders, per advanced DvP. Cedi Osman will likely be popular once again if Sexton is ruled out, but his $5,400 price tag screams fade to me if his ownership is going to be above 20%. He’s shown a much more likely chance at giving you 4.5-5x his salary as opposed to a 7-8x ceiling.
Blazers at Nets preview
BKN PK, total: 240.5
If you’re making your lineups strictly based on Vegas totals and data, this looks like a picture-perfect game with a high total and as tight of a spread as you can get. The interesting thing to follow throughout the day is whether both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are going to play. While Irving sat out Thursday with groin soreness, he has a shot to return Friday, while Durant could potentially be sat on the second leg of a back-to-back. Since Durant played 36 minutes Thursday, it’s safe to assume that he’s a full-go and can play. If that’s the case, he’s still at least $1,000 too cheap, making him a core play for my single-entry contests. If Irving plays, Durant is still cheap enough to warrant consideration, whereas Irving would be an elite pivot given his individual matchup with Damian Lillard.
Outside of these two, Jeff Green and Joe Harris are the only two Nets that I would consider and that’s specific to DraftKings. Green has assumed more of a scorers’ role and could play more center in hopes of forcing the Blazers to go small, while Harris’ three-point upside on DraftKings is always appealing in a game that projects to score this many points.
On the Blazers’ side, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Norman Powell are all worth consideration strictly from a gamescript standpoint, but predicting which one will have a ceiling game is tougher than it should be. On FanDuel, Lillard is the easy top choice at only $8,000, but on DraftKings, I actually prefer McCollum for $1,100 cheaper than Lillard’s $9,200 price tag.
Jusuf Nurkic is also a viable tournament option given the 50-DK-point ceiling we’ve recently seen. Centers continue to terrorize the Nets and he should have no problem continuing that trend. If you’re worried that he gets run off the court, however, you may want to look to Robert Covington for a depressed price given that he’d be the primary beneficiary in that scenario.
Magic at Grizzlies preview
MEM -10.5, total: 225
This is probably the most likely game to cross off your list if you’re looking to narrow down your pool, as it carries some of the biggest blowout potential and rather unappealing assets. Both Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas should have their ways with the Magic “defense,” but given the blowout risk, I do have some reservations in terms of their playing time. This would obviously cater to players like De'Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane and Xavier Tillman if there is indeed a blowout.
The Magic are coming into this game even more depleted than normal, with Chuma Okeke ruled out and Terrence Ross listed as doubtful. Cole Anthony should continue to take the majority of the shots in this offense and while his price at $6,500 leaves him in no man’s land, he certainly still has some per-dollar upside. The absence of Okeke should open up minutes for James Ennis, Moritz Wagner and Donta Hall, but I have zero interest in any of them. The only passing interest I have is in Mo Bamba at $5,000, who should continue to see at least 22 minutes per game off the bench and has been a per-minute machine.
Bucks at Bulls preview
MIL -5, total: 221
At first glance, this spread feels way too close, but given the fact that Giannis Antetokounmpo left the game Thursday with an ankle injury, it feels safe to rule him out of this game. That obviously leaves Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday as elite options and some of the most popular plays on the slate. While I recommend getting both into a lineup if only playing one lineup, Holiday would be my lean if only choosing one. He’s coming off of a 70-DK-point outing against the Rockets and has seen a 4.47% bump in usage rate (26.10%) and an 8.37-point jump in DK points per game (41.75) without Giannis active this season. Middleton’s are just as enticing, posting a 29.55% usage rate and just a shade under 41 DK points per game without Giannis this season.
Bobby Portis should be another popular selection if Giannis sits and even at $5,500, he’d be an elite option whether he comes off the bench or starts. This is a beautiful matchup for the Bucks’ team as a whole and the potential absence of Giannis makes it better. You can also consider Pat Connaughton or Bryn Forbes in tournaments, with the lean going to whoever draws the start. The same can be said for Donte DiVincenzo, especially on FanDuel.
The absence of the reigning MVP and DPOY also makes this a better matchup for the Bulls, but I still only have interest in two players: Coby White and Nikola Vucevic. White is priced appropriately at $6,400 and while he should see a lot of Jrue Holiday on the defensive end, he still has enough upside to warrant consideration without LaVine active. That said, I do prefer Cole Anthony for $100 more given the matchup. Vucevic should have his way with the Bucks, as he’s posted a 27.97% usage rate without LaVine this season and over 45 DK points per game. He’s also posted two straight games of at least 20 points, 13 rebounds and five assists against the Bucks.
Jazz at Suns preview
PHO -4.5, total: 222.5
Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are slated to miss yet another game and while the blowout capped the ceilings of Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles last game, I’m going right back to the well here in what should be a close game throughout, even at their elevated prices. Of the two, Clarkson profiles more as a tournament option given his dependence on offensive output, while Ingles feels like the smarter cash or single-entry option. Rudy Gobert is also viable here, especially against a center like Deandre Ayton, but at $8,600, I feel better about options elsewhere.
If Royce O'Neale if forced to sit out, Georges Niang becomes one of my favorite value options on the slate. Over his last three games in which he’s played at least 20 minutes, he’s posted DK totals of 23.25, 24.25, and 31.25 DraftKings points and 13, 14 and 19 raw points. He clearly has the ability to step up if needed and at $3,400, provides a great floor/ceiling combination if he draws a start.
For the Suns, it’s still hard for me to have a ton of DFS interest here, despite the injuries to the Jazz team. If forced to choose, Chris Paul remains the stable option here and he continues to be too cheap at under $8,000 on DraftKings. Both Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton offer ceilings, but I prefer to look elsewhere given their inconsistencies.
If Dario Saric and Jae Crowder sit out again, we can safely fire up Cameron Johnson as a value play given the number of minutes that he would be thrust into.
Kings at Lakers preview
LAL -9.5, total: 223
Anthony Davis has now seen 31 minutes in back-to-back games, and given the fact that he’s probable Friday, it’s going to be hard to not love him on this slate. I don’t expect the ownership to be anything crazy given the popularity around the Bucks’ pieces and Durant, but there simply isn’t a better spot, as illustrated by advanced DvP below:
If looking to get a bit different with your spend-up, Davis is my favorite option and someone I will actively attempt to pair with Kevin Durant given his $9,100 price tag.
Outside of Davis, Dennis Schroder is the other Lakers player that I have a ton of interest in. He’s been top-10 in the NBA in touches per game for the better portion of the last month and has established 30 DK points as a floor. For $7,200, he’s one of the safest point guard plays on the slate with added upside given this matchup.
The Kings are going to be shorthanded once again without De'Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes, but they are expected to get Marvin Bagley back from an extended absence Friday. While he’s only $4,700 on DraftKings, he’s bound to be under some sort of minutes restriction and even with Barnes out, I prefer to take a wait-and-see approach here. This simply takes me off of players like Chimezie Metu as a value option.
If going anywhere on the Kings, it’d be Tyrese Haliburton despite the down game against the Jazz Wednesday. This is still a brutal matchup, but he’s getting so many touches where it doesn’t matter as much and has attempted at least 14 shots in three consecutive games.
