Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Thursday presents us with six games on the NBA DFS slate, and while only two of them have spreads within five points, three of them have totals north of 230 points. Potential blowouts or not, we’re sure to see some fireworks on this slate.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Mavericks at Pistons preview
DAL -8.5, total: 215.5
Both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are questionable once again Thursday, with Doncic having played the last two games and Porzingis having been inactive for both of them. While this is a game that the Mavericks need to win, it’s not one that they can’t win without one of these two stars. That makes me a bit cautious when ruling them in or out. Luckily, we’ve seen both scenarios this season. If Doncic is out, Jalen Brunson, Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway and Porzingis (if active) all become elite options. Of the group, Burke would be the most tournament-suited option, while Brunson would likely carry the most ownership.
If Porzingis is out and Doncic is active, we can approach this team how we have been the last couple of games. This would give a bump to Dorian Finney-Smith (if active), Doncic, Hardaway and Maxi Kleber (if active). If Kleber and Porzingis both sit out, that would thrust Willie Cauley-Stein into the value conversation.
While there are a lot of moving parts on the Mavs’ side, most of the ownership is going to come from the Pistons’ side and it starts with Isaiah Stewart. If we’ve learned anything this season, it’s how productive Stewart is without Mason Plumlee. In seven games without Plumlee this season, Stewart has averaged 30.11 DraftKings points and 31.43 FanDuel points per game, making him a great mid-tier play at $6,000 flat on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel.
Outside of Stewart, Saddiq Bey and Josh Jackson are in the elite-play territory with Jerami Grant out. The same can be said for Killian Hayes, who should get the majority of minutes at point guard with Dennis Smith and Cory Joseph out.
Nets at Pacers preview
BKN -9.5, total: 237.5
The implied total of this game tells us exactly what we need to know, as these are two atrocious defensive units squaring off, with the Nets expected to win comfortably. Much of the defensive struggles on the Indiana side are due to the absence of Myles Turner, who remains out. In addition, Domantas Sabonis is out, while Jeremy Lamb and Goga Bitadze are questionable. This leads us right back to the trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert and Oshae Brissett. The former of the three carries the highest floor/ceiling combination but has also been priced up to $9,000 on DraftKings. He’s a great play in this matchup, but far from a must-play given the price. LeVert is $1,000 cheaper and while a bit more volatile, the spot against the Nets here is one to attack in GPPs.
While not in the same realm in terms of floor/ceiling combination, my preference of the three for Pacers exposure is Brissett. $5,300 is simply too cheap for what he’s done with Turner, Sabonis, and Bitadze out this season, averaging 10.5 points, 7.25 rebounds and over 25 DraftKings points per game. It won’t pop off of the page, but he gets it done. He also comes with immunity in terms of gamescript, as he’d still see blowout run, unlike the two guards. You can also get away with Edmond Sumner (two games with 30-plus DK points over his last three) and JaKarr Sampson here, but I feel safest about the aforementioned three.
For the Nets, this team continues to be funneled through Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Durant was a popular option last slate given his $8,300 price tag and his $8,500 tag Thursday leaves the door open for the same type of ownership. This is another spot where I want to get to Durant, as he posted 45.0 fantasy points on only seven shots last game and saw 32 minutes. Now that he’s essentially back to a full workload, this price is arguably $2,000 too cheap. Irving is an elite play in his own right, but I view him simply as a pivot off Durant to get Nets exposure, given how high I am on Durant.
The rest of this team is too hard to nail down, as DeAndre Jordan picked up a DNP-CD last game, making this a frontcourt I want to avoid outside of Durant. In the backcourt, Mike James has some merit at $3,100 given the fact that he should see over 20 minutes with Bruce Brown sidelined, but I only feel comfortable with that in large-field single- or multi-entry GPPs.
Bucks at Rockets preview
MIL -13, total: 231.5
If there’s one game I would feel extremely confident in laying money that it’ll be a blowout, this is the one. The Rockets come into this game in shambles with John Wall now out for the season and really have nothing to play for besides a good draft position. While Kevin Porter burned us all last slate, I’m OK going right back to the well with him starting at point guard. He still played 35 minutes last game but shot a putrid 2-12 from the field, which is going to be hard for him to repeat. His price has come up so he’s no longer a must-play on DraftKings, but on FanDuel, his $5,600 price tag is laughably cheap.
Christian Wood is another strong option on Houston and likely the only other option I’d consider, minus potentially Kelly Olynyk. Wood has averaged 24.0 points, 18.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists over his last two games, giving him a massive ceiling for his price. Olynyk would be the cheaper route to this frontcourt, but not by much. He’s priced over $8,000 on FanDuel and priced at $6,900 on DraftKings, having posted three consecutive games over 45 fantasy points.
The Bucks are going to be tougher to justify Thursday, as this game could very well get out of hand by the second quarter. The one piece to monitor is the probable tag for Giannis Antetokounmpo. We’ve seen it before this season where he’s deemed probable and eventually gets downgraded throughout the day and given the matchup, I would not 100% rule that out.
In that scenario, we would easily target Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis. All three are still viable if Giannis is active, but the minutes risk would be a real thing with the former two. Portis carries a very high ceiling here as he could see a ton of blowout run against a brutal defense if this game gets out of hand. Giannis is a viable spend-up here, but based on the projected gamescript, I’d rather spend my salary elsewhere. That said, he could easily have a ceiling game in 27 minutes.
Warriors at Timberwolves preview
GSW -3, total: 234.5
This may be the most enticing game on the slate, carrying a tight spread and a massive total. Not that matchups are an end-all-be-all for a player like Stephen Curry, but it’s hard to find a better one than this. He has legitimate upside for 70 DraftKings points if this game stays close, as the Wolves give up the highest field-goal percentage from three in the entire NBA.
Draymond Green is the secondary Warriors’ player that I have the most interest in given his triple-double upside, but in this matchup, a case can be made for both Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre given their ceilings on the offensive end. While it may feel chasey, Mychal Mulder is an interesting value option at $3,100. He’s coming off of the best game of his career (26 points, five rebounds) and should draw his fourth-straight start against a league-worst defense, so there are certainly worse spots for value options.
On the flip side, I love Karl-Anthony Towns in this spot. The Warriors are already an undersized team without James Wiseman and while his absence doesn’t necessarily hurt them defensively, they’ll need any size they can get against Towns. He makes for a great pivot off Curry in this game and if enough value opens up, they’re an elite spend-up stack. Whether or not you go with Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards are viable here as well. Russell’s sub-$7,000 price tag gives him a ton of upside now that he’s seeing 30 minutes per game and shooting over 15 times per game, while Edwards carries similar upside in the starting lineup.
Pelicans at Thunder preview
NOP -8.5, total: 229
The Pelicans come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and find themselves in another exploitable matchup. Lonzo Ball had a ceiling game on Wednesday, posting a 16/12/12 triple-double with six stocks (65.5 DKP) and should be an elite play once again for under $7,000. His ownership is sure to inflate a bit after the game Wednesday, but he’s still far too cheap for the matchup given the fact that Luguentz Dort could spend a lot of his time guarding Brandon Ingram.
If that becomes the case, then this would also open up room for Zion Williamson to operate after a down game as well. He’s an elite GPP play given the fact that nobody will want to get there after a floor game on Wednesday. Since Ingram is the player that I see most likely to draw the Dort assignment, I’m OK getting away from him. Steven Adams also left Wednesday’s game early with a toe issue and given the fact that he didn’t return, I have a hard time seeing him active on Thursday. This allows us to fire up Willy Hernangomez with confidence, as he’s averaged 9.8 points and 11.2 rebounds per game with Adams out this season. He’ll be one of, if not the most popular player on the slate, but it’s chalk that I don’t want to fade.
For the Thunder, it’s hard to have any interest in this team given the fact that they mailed it in weeks ago. The best option, however, is Luguentz Dort. He’s essentially assumed the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander role for this team, as he’s averaged 27.8 points and 5.8 rebounds per game over his last five games. His $6,500 price tag on DraftKings is an absolute steal in this matchup.
Outside of Dort, you can get frisky with Isaiah Roby for $4,700, but his minutes seem to be capped under 30 with both Moses Brown and Tony Bradley soaking up about 15 each per game.
Raptors at Nuggets preview
DEN -4.5, total: 224
The Nuggets are another team entering the slate on the second leg of a back-to-back but still find themselves as the favorites over the disappointing Raptors.
Nikola Jokic has a legitimate case as the top spend-up on every single slate. He logged over 60 DraftKings points against the Pelicans Wednesday and gets an even better matchup on this slate, making him the top overall spend-up on the slate. If not going Jokic (who I don’t think is a must even though he’s the top spend-up), I would like to try and get exposure to Michael Porter. His price rise is fully justified by the fact that he’s averaged over 1.3 DKP/min over his last four games, and he should continue to log at least 35 minutes per game. Outside of those two, however, I’m OK passing on the rest of this team. Facundo Campazzo, PJ Dozier and Austin Rivers just don’t carry the ceilings that other value plays on this slate do.
For the Raptors, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet still carry appeal given their prices under $8,000, but I have far more interest in them than I do Pascal Siakam for his price, as I much prefer defaulting to Porter on the other side of this game.
Khem Birch is the other Toronto option that I have an interest in, as his $5,000 price tag isn’t quite indicative of his current role without Chris Boucher. In three games without Boucher so far, Birch is averaging 11.67 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.67 blocks, and 29.75 DK points per game. For $5,000, that’s extremely reliable production.
