NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
This Friday’s NBA DFS slate is a bit lighter than we’re accustomed to for a Friday, but a seven-game slate to end the workweek is still more than enough to get us excited.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Heat at Hawks preview
MIA -5, total: 214.5
After spraining his ankle in the Hawks’ last game, Trae Young has already been ruled out of both Friday and Sunday’s games. Luckily, we’ve seen this before. Over the last four weeks, only two starters have averaged over a fantasy point per minute with Young off of the court: Bogdan Bogdanovic (1.13) and Clint Capela (1.34). Bogdanovic sees the largest jump in fantasy points per game with Young out, making him an elite play, even in this matchup. Capela is a great play as well, but I wouldn’t prioritize him the way that I intend to prioritize Bogdanovic.
John Collins is another strong way to get exposure to the Hawks, as his usage rate jumps 2.67% with Young out this season and he averaged 38.5 DK points per game. At $6,800, it’s hard to find a ceiling like his, especially if Clint Capela sits. Brandon Goodwin is the likely player to replace Young in the starting five and at $3,400, he’s one of the top value options on the slate. He averages a shade under 22 DraftKings points per game with Young out compared to 9.86 per game with him active and most importantly, averages over 27 minutes per game in this scenario.
The Heat are also dealing with injuries of their own, as Tyler Herro is questionable and Victor Oladipo remains out. In this matchup, both Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler are perfectly viable and make for great runback options if you end up with two or three Hawks. Goran Dragic should see an incremental boost off the bench if Herro misses and his $5,000 price leaves enough room for upside here as well.
Celtics at Nets preview
BKN -4.5, total: 230
The Celtics come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and have the potential to be without Jaylen Brown once again. If the spread implies anything, it looks like it could imply that Brown is closer to the doubtful side of questionable, meaning we can fire up both Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum once again. The latter burned the masses on Thursday and only shot 3-17 from the field. His $10,000 price is steep, but I have a hard time seeing a repeat of Thursday and with potentially lower ownership due to recency bias, Tatum is one of my favorite spend-ups on the slate.
Walker is right behind him in terms of priority on the Celtics, as he sees a 3.83% bump in usage rate with Brown out this season (29.59%) and draws an extremely exploitable matchup with Kyrie Irving. Marcus Smart and Tristan Thompson are the other two Celtics worth rostering, with the former being far more appealing as a pivot off Walker and Tatum.
Kyrie Irving should continue to shoulder the offensive load with James Harden out and with Kevin Durant questionable. He has a chance to once again be the only catalyst on offense. If Durant is ruled out, Irving becomes an elite play against his former team. If Durant is in, however, my priority would go to Durant for only $9,000, as even in limited minutes, his price gives him a ton of ceiling potential on a per-dollar basis.
If he’s out, we can also look to Bruce Brown, who’s averaged 13.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 2.0 steals in 28.7 minutes per game over his last three. $5,500 may instill some sticker shock, but his production has warranted the price. Joe Harris would also become a viable option if Durant is out, as the three-point bonus on DraftKings gives him incrementally more upside than he has on FanDuel, although I prefer Brown in this scenario for $400 cheaper.
Cavaliers at Hornets preview
CHA -1, total: 209.5
The Hornets are another team that comes into Friday on the second leg of a back-to-back, and they remain shorthanded without LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk and Gordon Hayward. With how bad the Cavs’ defense is, especially in transition, I will continue to go back to Terry Rozier, especially on FanDuel for $8,100 ($600 cheaper than on DraftKings). He had a down game Thursday against the Bulls but has posted at least 40 FD points in four of his last five games while notching at least eight assists in all five.
Devonte' Graham is a fine mid-tier option, but I have a hard time considering him anything more than that given the fact that we haven’t seen a really high ceiling from him. I would rather default to Miles Bridges on FanDuel ($7,200) or P.J. Washington ($6,300) on DraftKings. The latter only saw 13 minutes Thursday and was the odd-man-out in James Borrego’s 13-man rotation, but I have a hard time seeing that hold up after how well he had played before that.
This is an enticing matchup for the Cavs, but there aren’t a ton of players here that I have an interest in. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are the default pair given their upside, with my lean being Garland for $500 cheaper, though Sexton for $7,300 is a fantastic bargain. I like the idea of trying to get one of these two in a single-entry lineup Friday.
Outside of the guards, it’s hard to trust anyone in this frontcourt given how many bodies there are. Kevin Love would be the safest forward option, having posted 30 or more DK points in four of his last five games, but $6,500 is a bit steep given the fact that he’s more likely to post floor games than ceiling games at this point in his career. Jarrett Allen is also really cheap at $7,100, but against a Hornets team that could easily phase him out by running small with Washington at the five, I’m OK looking elsewhere.
Clippers at Rockets preview
LAC -11.5, total: 221.5
Kawhi Leonard is once again out and even with an 11.5-point spread, it’s going to be hard to get away from Paul George in this matchup. With Leonard out this season, George has posted a 37.43% usage rate, 47.5 DKP/game, and 45.34 FDP/game, while seeing jumps in almost every statistical category. Not that matchups matter a ton with a player of his caliber, but the Rockets are quite literally one of the best matchups he could ask for.
Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson are the two other Clippers players that I have an interest in. Morris will almost certainly carry more ownership, but Jackson sees a 50.87% jump in DraftKings points per game and a 52.26% jump in FanDuel points per game with Leonard out this season. Of the two, Jackson is my preference, but Morris is also an elite play.
For the Rockets, I really only have interest in John Wall here at $7,500. With Kevin Porter now out, Wall is quite literally the only reliable ball-handler left on the team and his price is far too low. His only obstacle, however, is a potential blowout, as we saw him approach 30 DK points in the third quarter last game, only to sit out the majority of the fourth due to a blowout. Christian Wood is a fine option at $8,300, but I would rather spend up on someone like Bam Adebayo or spend down to John Collins if looking at the power forward and center positions.
Wizards at Thunder preview
WAS -9, total: 229.5
This is a matchup we saw a mere four days ago, and while the spread implies that there’s a high potential for a blowout, it should stay close enough for the majority of the game for both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal to get there. Westbrook had a rather down game against the Thunder last game, shooting 5-18 from the field, but still posted a 13/17/11 triple-double, showcasing just how high his floor is when he has a poor game from the field. If Beal can continue his hot shooting, he should make for an elite pivot.
With both Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura out, we should see a hefty amount of Davis Bertans. For $4,300, his upside on DraftKings given his effectiveness from deep makes him an elite value on this slate.
The Thunder continue to operate shorthanded as well, and with Luguentz Dort questionable once again, we could see the same rotation that we’ve been seeing for the last few games. If Dort is active, he makes for a great play at $6,800 and would also knock the stock of either Westbrook or Beal, whoever he’s projected to guard.
While I would have a ton of interest in Dort if he’s active, Darius Bazley is the other Thunder player that I have an interest in regardless of the status of Dort. He’s seen 33 or more minutes in each of the last four games, averaging 21.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. For $6,400, that’s some phenomenal production in such an enticing matchup. Given the carousel that we see at center with Moses Brown, Isaiah Roby, and Tony Bradley, I’m OK passing on all three Friday.
Nuggets at Warriors preview
DEN -3, total: 227.5
Getting Nikola Jokic for under $11,000 should be a crime given the form he’s in, having posted 56 or more DK points in four of his last five games. He also played this same Warriors team almost two weeks ago, posting 27 points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists in 37 minutes. That statline feels like an accurate projection (I know, sounds like lazy analysis) and in many cases, you could count on it as your floor for him Friday.
Regardless of whether you’re playing Jokic, Michael Porter is another strong play at $7,700 given his upside, and he’s also playing heavy minutes, seeing at least 38 in two of his last five games while failing to fall below 31 minutes in any of the five.
Facundo Campazzo is still a viable, albeit unexciting, value play at $4,400 given the injuries to Monte Morris and Jamal Murray, but the presence of Austin Rivers may eat into his minutes a bit. I prefer to drop down to PJ Dozier (on both sites) given the fact that he’s seen 24 or more minutes in four straight games, topping 24 DK points in three of those four. Not only are the minutes there, but he’s taken at least nine shots in each game, recording enough volume to provide a stable floor.
The Warriors are a team to target here as well, and Stephen Curry is a great starting point. Sure, he had a floor game Wednesday, but his floor was still 38.75 DKP. His price has fallen to $10,300 and he just scored 53 raw points on 10-18 from three against this same defense a mere 11 days ago. He’s an elite play on this slate. I love the idea of pairing Curry with Draymond Green here, who posted 18/7/7 last game against the Nuggets and feels a touch underpriced at $6,900. Even if you fade Curry, Green is a safe way to get exposure to the Warriors’ offense and provides legit upside of 50-60 DK points. Andrew Wiggins would be a GPP angle to take if you think Denver sells out to stop Curry (good luck) and succeed to an extent, as he would be the most likely player to pick up the slack from a scoring perspective. His $6,600 price tag also leaves room for upside relative to his price.
Grizzlies at Blazers preview
POR -3.5, total: 232.5
Jonas Valanciunas remains out for the Grizzlies as he battles through the league’s concussion protocol, opening up room once again Xavier Tillman to find value as one of the best salary-savers on the board. In his two games since Valanciunas went down, he’s averaged 12.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 2.5 stocks, and 1.5 assists in 34.5 minutes per game. Even with Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson present, Tillman’s $4,600 price is cheap enough to make him an elite value option.
Speaking of the other two forwards, Jackson made his return to the court and posted 33.5 DK points in only 18 minutes off of the bench. While his four blocks certainly carried this outcome, it shows how elite he can be from a per-minute perspective. His price on DraftKings ($7,000) is a bit restrictive for his playing time right now, but $5,800 on FanDuel is low enough to make him an interesting GPP dart.
Ja Morant should continue to shoulder an extra workload with Valanciunas out and remains too cheap on both sites, especially against Damian Lillard, who ranks 79th out of 89 qualified point guards in defensive real plus/minus. With all of the wings active, my interest in Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen, De'Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane is rather minimal.
I have more interest in the Grizzlies’ side of this game than I do the Blazers’ side, especially with all of the starters free from the injury report. You can make a case for Jusuf Nurkic at only $5,200 given his per-minute upside in a matchup that’s missing Valanciunas, but that’s in large-field GPPs only.
Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are also GPP-worthy options if you are stacking the Grizzlies, but the presence of Norman Powell has certainly had his impact on McCollum’s workload while McCollum’s return has had its impact on Lillard’s ceiling.
