NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Friday is finally here, and there’s no better way to kick the weekend off than with a 10-game NBA DFS slate full of injury implications, blowouts and massive totals.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Warriors at Raptors preview
TOR -2, total: 227
Stephen Curry is back and seemingly free of any minutes restriction after seeing 36 minutes last game against the Heat. With Kyle Lowry out, this defense becomes more attackable, even with Fred VanVleet still active. Not that you dictate Curry’s viability strictly on the matchup, but he’s an elite play at his price point.
Because he’s back, it’s hard for me to endorse Andrew Wiggins at his price, but it makes me love Draymond Green in tournaments, as this gives him one more elite shooter and playmaker to help run the offense. The return of Curry also helps the Warriors push their pace of play, which is an environment that Green thrives in.
For the Raptors, we can default back to VanVleet and Pascal Siakam here with Lowry out. On the season without their point guard, VanVleet has a 27.6% usage rate while Siakam’s sits at 24.4%, and both average over 1.1 DKP/min. Of the two, VanVleet is my lean, as he still feels a touch cheap for the ceiling he provides. Gary Trent is also viable if you want cheaper exposure here, as he’s seen 37 shot attempts over the last two games.
In the frontcourt, both Chris Boucher and OG Anunoby are viable, with Boucher being a large-field tournament play if you think he’ll get enough time against James Wiseman, and Anunoby being a rock-solid cash-game play at his price.
Rockets at Celtics preview
BOS -10.5, total: 223
After missing Wednesday’s game with fluid in his knee, John Wall is once again listed as questionable for Friday’s game. Given the spread on this game, my gut is telling me he sits. This means we should continue to see a ton of Kevin Porter at point guard. While he disappointed Wednesday, this is a spot to go right back to the well, as he sports a 29.4% usage rate, 32.2% assist rate, and 1.12 DKP/min with Wall, Eric Gordon and the now-traded Victor Oladipo off the floor this season.
Christian Wood is also viable regardless of whether Wall plays, but he’s best left for GPPs at $8,400 on DraftKings. This is an exploitable matchup, but at this price on a 10-game slate, you want roughly 50 DraftKings points to be happy with this play and that’s not something we’ve seen from him much lately. That said, he certainly has the ability to do that and more.
For the Celtics, it’s hard not to love literally anyone here, as a blowout is the only thing between the Celtics and ceiling games in this matchup. Both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are viable here as mid-tier spend-ups with 20-plus shots in their likely range of outcomes. Between the two, I prefer the $1,200 savings on Brown. Even returning from injury, a sub-$8,000 price tag on him is criminal in this matchup, as he’s one of the best transition players in the NBA going against one of the worst transition defenses.
Outside of those two, you can get away with Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier and Marcus Smart in tournaments, but they’re risky assets playing aside two volume-heavy stars and could be capped in a blowout.
Mavericks at Knicks preview
DAL -5.5, total: 213.5
This game carries very little DFS appeal relative to the other games on the slate, as evident by the 213.5 total. I have far more interest in this from a betting standpoint (as outlined in my Tipico One-Play Pay Day), but you can still get to Luka Doncic if spending all the way up for a stud. While this is not an optimal matchup, Doncic is a player unlike any in the league and carries legitimate upside for 70-plus DraftKings points into any game. Unlike most slates, however, I don’t have an interest in hedging with Kristaps Porzingis if fading Doncic, simply because I don’t think this matchup makes having one of them an absolute necessity. If you’re interested in revenge narratives, however, Porzingis should certainly be in play for you.
On the Knicks side, Julius Randle should see another bump in usage if Derrick Rose sits out again, as he’s posted a 27.36% usage rate without him this season and sees an incremental uptick in assists per game (6.25) and rebounds per game (10.92). This would also give RJ Barrett a few extra shots and for someone that averages more drives per game than Giannis Antetokounmpo, he could find success against a defensive unit allowing a 64.4% field goal percentage in the restricted area this season. This also makes Elfrid Payton a viable value in tournaments if Rose sits out, as he saw 28 minutes last game with him out and topped 30 DraftKings points. For only $4,400, this is a safer value in this scenario.
Hornets at Pacers preview
IND -4, total: 222
The Hornets continue to tread water without LaMelo Ball, but they could also be without one of their offensive catalysts Friday in Malik Monk, who left Thursday’s game with an injury. If he were to miss Friday’s game, it would make Devonte' Graham an elite play, even against a rather stout Indiana defense. With both Ball and Monk off the floor this season, Graham has a 21.4% usage rate, 29.0% assist rate, and averages nearly a DraftKings point per minute (0.97).
Gordon Hayward continues to be a viable mid-tier target and sees a 24.4% usage rate with the two aforementioned players off the floor, but his volatility has me reserving him for GPPs. I prefer him on FanDuel, where you’re required to roster a pair of small forwards, especially at his $7,000 price tag. Terry Rozier is in a similar boat, as his volatility has me reserving him for GPPs over cash games, but his upside is high enough where he can help you win a tournament if his shot is falling.
For the Pacers, Domantas Sabonis is currently listed as questionable with a quad issue. Should he end up missing, we would see a massive uptick in production for the backcourt duo in Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert. Of the two, Brogdon is my preferred target. While we haven’t seen a game this season with him active and Sabonis inactive, he’s the first in line for additional volume.
This would also make Myles Turner more interesting in tournaments, as the Hornets are an attackable defense for centers, and he would have a handful of extra rebounding opportunities with Sabonis out.
Timberwolves at Grizzlies preview
MEM -7, total: 231.5
The Timberwolves continue to bleed fantasy production to opponents and that doesn’t look like it’s going to stop against the Grizzlies. This is a matchup where I have a ton of interest in both Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas. Oddly enough, Morant has shown more volatility over the last two weeks than Valanciunas, as the latter is averaging 1.46 DKP/min over that span to Morant’s 1.07. While Morant carries the higher usage rate (27.7%), I have more interest in Valanciunas against the non-existent defense of Karl-Anthony Towns if choosing one. Both, however, are viable and have a ton of upside.
Brandon Clarke and Kyle Anderson are cheap enough to warrant consideration with Justice Winslow out, as they could both pick up a few additional minutes. On the same train of thought, it’s hard not to like Desmond Bane at $4,100 if Grayson Allen is out once again. Bane has averaged 30.5 minutes over his last two games en route to 12.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and a steal per game, making him more than valuable at that price.
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As much interest as I have in the Grizzlies, the same cannot be said about the Timberwolves. The duo of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns is always viable in GPPs, but this is a rather middling matchup that doesn’t necessarily jump off of the page. If you are stacking Grizzlies, however, it makes sense to get one of these two in your lineup, as you want this game to stay close and they would be the best bet to do so for the Wolves.
The other player that I have an interest in on the Wolves is Jaden McDaniels. He’s recently moved into the starting lineup and over his last four games, has averaged 14.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.8 blocks in 35.8 minutes per game. This is elite production for a player priced under $5,000 on DraftKings.
Bulls at Jazz preview
UTA -13.5, total: 228.5
This game carries a massive amount of injury implications, as Zach LaVine and Coby White are both questionable for the Bulls while Garrett Temple has already been ruled out. All three missed the team’s last game, resulting in Nikola Vucevic post 1.44 DKP/min on a 23.1% usage rate on Wednesday. Even in a tough matchup, he’d be extremely viable at only $9,000.
This would also make Patrick Williams, Denzel Valentine and Tomas Satoransky viable value options. Of the three, Williams may be the safest, while Valentine showcased some surprising upside with a 30.4% usage rate and 1.13 DKP/min on Wednesday in 29 minutes. If one of LaVine or White play, I would expect whoever is active to carry a massive usage rate. If both end up playing, we can approach the Bulls as normal, and the entire team would likely be easier to fade.
The Jazz are also dealing with potential players being out, as Donovan Mitchell’s status is up in the air after missing Wednesday’s game for personal reasons. If he’s out again, we can go right back to the well with Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. The latter of the two is stronger tournament play given the volatility, but Conley is viable in all formats, as he averaged 1.37 DKP/min and a 26.4% usage rate with Mitchell out on Wednesday. If Mitchell is in, this game becomes an easy one to fade.
Rudy Gobert would certainly pick up extra shots as well, but the difference isn’t significant enough to make him a core play.
Hawks at Pelicans preview
ATL -2, total: 223.5
The Pelicans were extremely shorthanded Thursday, missing both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. They both come into Friday’s game with questionable tags. Thankfully, we have a game of data Thursday to default to in case they miss, and that would make it hard to pass on Nickeil Alexander-Walker, regardless of the price jump, after he played nearly 39 minutes in an overtime game and saw 24 shot attempts.
While he would be the default top option here, Josh Hart, Eric Bledsoe and James Johnson would all be viable as well, in that order. The first two saw over 45 minutes each in the overtime game Thursday and Hart posted a 14-point, 17-rebound double-double. He carries the highest upside of the trio. Johnson is the cheapest of the three and comes in as an elite value if Ingram and Williamson are out after playing over 28 minutes and seeing 11 shot attempts. Of course, there’s the potential for one, or both of the stars to play, as well. If one of them plays and the other sits, the active one becomes an elite play. If both play, Williamson is an elite play at his price, and it would knock the stocks of all of the aforementioned players.
The Hawks step into a great spot regardless of whether Ingram and Williamson are active, but with how slow they’ve played under Nate McMillan, I wouldn’t expect a track meet here.
John Collins is out once again, which paves the way for Danilo Gallinari to get another start after seeing over 36 minutes and 36.5 DraftKings points against the Spurs. At $5,500, he’s an elite mid-tier target. With Collins, De'Andre Hunter, and Cam Reddish all off the floor this season, Trae Young has averaged over 1.6 DraftKings points per minute with a 42.4% usage rate and 47.0% assist rate. For being so cheap, he offers a heap of upside. This is also a spot where Clint Capela should see more opportunity on the glass and sporting 1.31 DKP/min in this scenario, he’s a viable GPP play.
Bucks at Trail Blazers preview
MIL -3.5, total: 236.5
Bucks bias aside, this is my favorite game on the slate to target, as it carries a tight 3.5-point spread and the highest total on the slate. In other words, Giannis Antetokounmpo is my top spend-up of the day. He should have absolutely no problem carving up Portland’s inept defense and given the tight spread, has 37- to 38-minute upside. Given the fact that he can average nearly two fantasy points per minute, he has one of, if not the highest ceiling on the entire slate.
If fading Giannis, I want to hedge with exposure to one of Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton. Not only is Holiday cheaper, but he’s in great form, having topped 45 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Over the last two games in particular, he’s averaged 26.0 points, 6.5 assists, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.5 steals in 34.5 minutes per game. A matchup with Damian Lillard is one that benefits him on both sides of the ball, making him my preference and a player that I would be okay pairing with Antetokounmpo as well.
For the Blazers, you can get away with either of Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum, though this isn’t necessarily an easy matchup. Playing them is relative more to the projected game environment rather than the individual matchups. Between the two, Lillard obviously possesses the higher ceiling, but McCollum has topped 40 DraftKings points in four straight games and comes in $1,700 cheaper. He should also avoid Jrue Holiday most of the evening, making him an elite pivot and one I want to stack with Holiday and Antetokounmpo.
You can also get away with Norman Powell if you think Holiday and Middleton contain the guards in Portland, as he would be the direct beneficiary as the third option here. His price has come all the way down to $6,400 and he’s still getting starters’ minutes with a heap of scoring upside. Robert Covington is the last piece I have interest in here, as he should see a massive number of minutes to attempt to defend Antetokounmpo. While I don’t think he’ll be successful, he still carries a ton of defensive peripheral upside and given Milwaukee’s tendency to give up a ton of three-point production, this sets up as a potential ceiling game for the three-and-D forward.
Lakers at Kings preview
SAC -5, total: 222
The stars remain out for the Lakers, which actually makes this an extremely enticing game environment for both sides.
De'Aaron Fox is the first thing that jumps off of the page, as his sub-$9,000 price tag is way too cheap. While Dennis Schroder is a great defender, Fox has been one of the most consistent DFS assets since the All-Star break, making him an elite play here. The other two Kings’ pieces that I have an interest in here are Richaun Holmes and Tyrese Haliburton.
Both are getting elite minutes and have flashed their ceilings recently. Given the tight spread, I would expect full workloads and both to be part of the closing lineup here.
For the Lakers, Andre Drummond is listed as out, so we can go back to breaking down this rotation as we did before his 14-minute career with the Lakers. Kyle Kuzma and Dennis Schroder are the most expensive pieces here, but in a pace-up spot against a brutal transition defense, it’s impossible to write them off. They aren’t my favorite options, however, simply because Montrezl Harrell is only $6,600. He’s priced as if Drummond is active and since he only saw 25 minutes last game, but he should be in line to get back over the 30-minute mark. Given his upside, he’s an elite play and my favorite option on the Lakers.
Thunder at Suns preview
PHO -13, total: 219.5
The last game of the slate is not an appealing one, as it comes with a lower total and a massive spread given how thin the Thunder are (and the fact that they’re tanking). With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ty Jerome, Luguentz Dort, Al Horford and Darius Bazley all out, we’re essentially left with four viable options: Moses Brown ($7,200), Isaiah Roby ($6,100), Theo Maledon ($5,800) and Kenrich Williams ($5,100).
Of that group, I would prioritize them by going Williams, Roby, Brown, Maledon. I simply do not have an interest in Maledon going up against Chris Paul’s defense. Roby should continue to see a massive number of minutes at the forward spot and as long as he can stay out of foul trouble, should be able to return value.
Williams, however, is my favorite. He has the ability to play in both the frontcourt and the backcourt and with so many guards out for the Thunder, should continue to see an uptick in ball-handling and facilitating duties. He also comes in as the cheapest option, which is appealing in a horrible matchup.
I don’t have interest in the Suns here, as I expect this game to get out of hand quickly. If targeting anyone, it’s either Chris Paul or Devin Booker, with Booker carrying the higher ceiling. Dario Saric is a viable value play, especially if you think this game gets out of hand. While he typically hovers around the 18- to 20-minute mark, he’s averaged over 28 DraftKings points per game over his last two games and has the potential to build on that on Friday if he gets more playing time in a blowout. For $3,800, he’s a low-risk punt.
