NBA DFS Preview: Pacific Division

We’re back.

After a long and stressful hiatus, the NBA is back, which means fantasy hoops return as well. The FTN NBA team is releasing a division preview series that will help remind you where each team is at entering the return to play. We continue on with the Pacific Division.

Los Angeles Lakers

Coach: Frank Vogel
Record: 49-14 (first in West)
Projected finish: First seed
Players not in bubble: Avery Bradley
Projected starters: LeBron James, Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Bench: Kostas Antetokounmpo, Devontae Cacok, Alex Caruso, Quinn Cook, Jared Dudley, Talen Horton-Tucker, Dwight Howard, Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris, J.R. Smith, Dion Waiters, Rajon Rondo (due back in early September)
Team pace: 103.2 (11th)
Team defensive rating: 105.5 (3rd)
Team offensive rating: 112.6 (4th)
Schedule breakdown: Clippers, Raptors, Jazz, Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, Nuggets, Kings

Not exactly the most forgiving schedule for the Lakers. Six of their opponents rank inside the top-12 in the league in defensive rating, though the matchup with the Pacers is interesting. All-Star big man Domantas Sabonis is nursing a serious foot injury that will likely keep him from participating in the restarted season, while Victor Oladipo hasn’t been with the team long.

Key notes

LeBron is already dominating the ball, as he ranked third in the NBA in touches per game before the hiatus (92.4). He was also sixth in time of possession per contest at 7.5 minutes. Now the Lakers will be without Rondo (thumb) for 6-8 weeks, which gives James even more ball-handling duties. With Rondo off the floor this season, LeBron is sporting a 32% usage rate and 33% assist rate.

Bradley is also away from the team, opening up some minutes at the guard position. The Lakers brought in both Smith and Waiters recently, but guys like Caldwell-Pope and Caruso will benefit. KCP appears to be the starting small forward and is just $4,000 on DraftKings for July 30 against the Clippers; however, Green likely has more solidified minutes and is $500 cheaper. He is the most reliable 3-and-D player on the roster, which is more important with Bradley’s absence. Keep an eye on these guard rotations from the Lakers going forward.

Los Angeles Clippers

Coach: Doc Rivers
Record: 44-20 (second in West)
Projected finish: Second seed
Players not in bubble: Montrezl Harrell
Projected starters: Reggie Jackson/Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Marcus Morris, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac
Bench: Jackson/Beverley, Amir Coffey, JaMychal Green, Montrezl Harrell, Terance Mann, Rodney McGruder, Joakim Noah, Patrick Patterson, Landry Shamet, Lou Williams (out two games)
Team pace: 102.3 (8th)
Team defensive rating: 106.6 (5th)
Team offensive rating: 112.9 (3rd)
Schedule breakdown: Lakers, Pelicans, Suns, Mavericks, Trail Blazers, Nets, Nuggets, Thunder

The Clippers have a few generous matchups with the Pelicans, Suns and a depleted Brooklyn ball club.

Key notes

As of this writing, the Clippers are in some trouble. Williams and Harrell are currently away from the team, while Shamet and Zubac are both newly in Orlando. Assuming they are cleared, they will return to the Clippers rotation and could have substantial roles right out of the gate. Potentially not having Williams and Harrell, two of the most important bench players in the NBA, is huge. Because George had been starting at the 2 before the break, that pushed Shamet to the bench. But he could soak up a lot more usage and shots if Williams and Harrell aren’t back in time. With those two off the floor this season, Shamet’s usage rate climbs by nearly three percent, while averaging 0.06 more fantasy points per minute. Because Williams must quarantine for 10 days upon returning to Orlando, he will not be able to play in the Clippers’ first two seeding games.

Harrell, meanwhile, also might be out, making Zubac very interesting if he is ready to roll, especially right out of the gate. Zubac is sporting a team-high 38% rebounding rate with Harrell and Williams off the floor this season, while averaging over a fantasy point per minute. If he starts against the Lakers on the 30th, he should walk into very solid minutes against a Lakers team that plays big all of the time with Davis, McGee and Howard. However, if Zubac can’t return, we could legitimately see plenty of Noah and Patterson.

Of course, all of the usage will go to the combination of George and Leonard, who are averaging 1.34 and 1.47 fantasy points per minute, respectively, with Williams and Harrell off the floor. They are also both sporting usage rates north of 33%.

Phoenix Suns

Coach: Monty Williams
Record: 26-39 (13th in West)
Projected finish: Not in the playoffs
Players not in bubble: Elie Okobo, Aron Baynes
Projected starters: Ricky Rubio, Mikal Bridges, Devin Booker, Dario Saric, Deandre Ayton
Bench: Jevon Carter, Cheick Diallo, Ty Jerome, Cameron Johnson, Frank Kaminsky, Jalen Lecque, Tariq Owens, Cameron Payne
Team pace: 101.7 (9th)
Team defensive rating: 111.3 (19th)
Team offensive rating: 110.2 (16th)
Schedule breakdown: Wizards, Mavericks, Clippers, Pacers, Heat, Thunder, 76ers, Mavericks

That July 31 game against the Wizards is going to likely be pretty popular for fantasy purposes but outside of that, nothing too enticing about this schedule.

Key notes

Phoenix is already without Kelly Oubre, who is still recovering from a knee injury, and could be without Baynes, at least to start. With Oubre sidelined, the Suns have been playing Bridges a ton of minutes, as the Villanova product averaged 39.5 minutes per game in the seven outings since Oubre’s injury. The problem is that he still isn’t very involved, sporting an ugly 12.7% usage rate with Oubre off the floor, while averaging 0.75 fantasy points per minute. Bridges is also priced right around his ceiling for the opener, though there is always upside to be had against the Wizards. Saric should also have very solidified minutes but, like Bridges, is priced at his ceiling, make them more of filler plays than guys you plug into your lineup right away.

If the Suns are without Baynes, Ayton should be able to do whatever he wants, especially against Washington. Phoenix had experimented with using Baynes and Ayton on the floor together earlier in the year but had gone away from that before the season came to a halt. With Baynes (and Oubre) off the court this season, Ayton’s rebounding rate jumps all the way up to a team-high 39%, while averaging a healthy 1.19 fantasy points per minute. Ayton is already a player averaging a strong 18.8 rebounding opportunities per game, good for the ninth-most in basketball. Recovered from his ankle injury in March, Ayton makes for a fantastic play at $7,900 against the Wizards, who convert just 60% of their defensive rebounds, the lowest rate in the league. They also allow the sixth-most post-up points per game (5.3), while Ayton finished ninth among all players in such points per game (3.5).

Sacramento Kings

Coach: Luke Walton
Record: 28-36 (11th in West)
Projected finish: Not in the playoffs
Players not in bubble: Harrison Barnes, Marvin Bagley
Projected starters: De'Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Harrison Barnes, Nemanja Bjelica, Richaun Holmes
Bench: Cory Joseph, Buddy Hield, Kent Bazemore, Harry Giles, Corey Brewer
Team pace: 99.08 (23rd)
Team defensive rating: 110.8 (18th)
Team offensive rating: 109.0 (19th)
Schedule breakdown: Spurs, Magic, Mavericks, Pelicans, Nets, Rockets, Pelicans, Lakers

Four of the eight teams on Sacramento’s schedule rank inside the top-12 in pace, which is good for fantasy purposes.

Key notes

As of this writing, Barnes has been cleared to return to action. If he is back to full go by the first game, look for him to remain locked into 35 minutes in any competitive game, which puts him in play at a manageable $5,000 price tag. Meanwhile, Fox is slightly underpriced at $7,600 given the upside he has, especially considering his usage rate is sitting at 30% with Bagley, who is out for the remainder of the season, off the floor. San Antonio is usually a strong defense, but they are coughing up the sixth-most real points per game to opposing point guards on the season.

The frontcourt is interesting here. Bagley is a pretty high-usage player and we have seen this team play plenty of minutes without him this season. I expect Holmes to start at center, as the Kings have preferred bringing Harry Giles off the bench. That would leave them with Giles and Alex Len as their primary backup centers. Both tend to see sporadic minutes but both are also averaging over a fantasy point per minute with Bagley off the court this season. Len is also sporting a massive 43% rebounding rate in 150 minutes without Bagley as a member of the Kings in 2019-20.

Finally, both Bogdanovic and Hield will continue to play around 30 minutes, with the latter coming off the bench. That should lead to more usage and shots and the Kings tend to stick with whichever wing is playing better, making them more attractive in GPPs.