NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/20)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article for that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry and some stats to get you started with the slate.

Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.

Sunday presents us with seven games on a main slate with a 6:00 p.m. ET tipoff. 

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for March 20 | NBA DFS First Look

New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -4, total: 231.5
Pace: NOP (21st), ATL (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Brandon Ingram, Larry Nance and Zion Williamson remain out for the Pelicans. Devonte’ Graham is listed as questionable.
• John Collins remains out for the Hawks while Trae Young is listed as questionable.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic

ORL -6.5, total: 225.0
Pace: OKC (11th), ORL (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort, Ty Jerome, Derrick Favors and Kenrich Williams remain out for the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is listed as questionable.
• Jalen Suggs is listed as questionable for the Magic.

Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings

PHO -10, total: 232.5
Pace: PHO (9th), SAC (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson are listed as out for the Suns.
• De’Aaron Fox is listed as questionable, while Terence Davis and Richaun Holmes are listed as out for the Kings.

Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks

UTA -4.5, total: 222.0
Pace: UTA (22nd), NYK (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Mike Conley, Danuel House, Udoka Azubuike and Bojan Bogdanovic are listed as out for the Jazz, while Hassan Whiteside is listed as questionable.
• Derrick Rose, Nerlens Noel and Cam Reddish remain out for the Knicks.

Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets

BOS -3.5, total: 222.5
Pace: BOS (24th), DEN (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Michael Porter and Jamal Murray remain out for the Nuggets.

Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -5.5, total: 222.5
Pace: TOR (26th), PHI (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Malachi Flynn and OG Anunoby remain out for the Raptors.
• Joel Embiid is listed as questionable for the Sixers

San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -6.5, total: 227.0
Pace: SAS (4th), GSW (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Stephen Curry, Gary Payton and James Wiseman are out for the Warriors, while Moses Moody is listed as questionable.
• Lonnie Walker and Doug McDermott are listed as out for the Spurs, while Keita Bates-Diop, Josh Richardson and Devontae Cacok are listed as questionable

Matchup to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Below are two matchups that I intend to target as core plays on Sunday.

Jordan Poole vs. San Antonio Spurs

All three of Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Poole have been priced up in anticipation of the absence of Stephen Curry, but Poole is still the cheapest of the trio, and it can be argued that $7,000 flat is still too cheap. In five games without Curry this season, Poole has posted a 29.19% usage rate while averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points per game on 25.2 points per game. He’s in red-hot form and gets a great matchup in a pace-up spot against the Spurs, rendering Poole a core play for me in single-entry formats on Sunday.

Wendell Carter vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Let’s try this again. After Carter Jr. was ruled out on the single-game slate on Thursday, he’s set to return to the lineup without an injury designation on Sunday against arguably the weakest frontcourt in basketball. Not only do the Thunder rank 27th against rebounders, per aDvP, but they also rank 28th against rim protectors, 27th against skilled centers and 29th against stretch bigs. Minutes have been the volatile aspect of Carter’s game, but with his late increase in minutes has come an elite increase in production. He’s averaged under 30 minutes per game on the season, but on a per-36-minute basis, he’s averaged 17.7 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.3 assist, a stat line that feels like a baseline target here given the matchup.

NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate are listed below for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
2. Joel Embiid ($11,300)
3. Dejounte Murray ($10,600)
4. Trae Young ($10,200)
5. James Harden ($10,100)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,300)
2. Joel Embiid ($11,200)
3. Dejounte Murray ($10,600)
4. Trae Young ($10,400)
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,200)

With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, which is exactly what we’ll do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the optimal lineup on DraftKings from last night’s slate:

• PG: Tomas Satoransky (33.75)
• SG: Frank Ntilikina (28.00)
• SF: Miles Bridges (44.5)
• PF: Jerami Grant (50.5)
• C: LeBron James (62.0)
• G: Russell Westbrook (50.5)
• F: Deni Avdija (31.5)
• UTIL: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (39.5)

Total: 340.25

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel from last night’s slate:

• PG: Russell Westbrook (47.0)
• PG: Tomas Satoransky (34.6)
• SG: Darius Garland (45.2)
• SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (36.5)
• SF: Saddiq Bey (42.7)
• SF: Miles Bridges (45.1)
• PF: Jerami Grant (47.9)
• PF: LeBron James (57.0)
• C: Montrezl Harrell (32.2)

Total: 388.2

The three-game Saturday slate was a quiet one, as the slate’s most expensive player, Luka Doncic, failed to make the optimal on both sites. Instead, his teammate Frank Ntilikina made it on DraftKings, while fellow spend-up LeBron James delivered the more productive performance. Not only did James make the optimal, but his teammate Russell Westbrook did as well, which may very well be the first time this season they both found themselves in the optimal lineup.