NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/14)

The week kicks off with a strong nine-game slate that features plenty of star players. As always, be sure to keep an eye on news throughout the day, especially with a handful of games starting at 10 p.m. EST or later.

Check out the FTN NBA Optimizer today. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 14 | NBA DFS First Look

Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -5.5, total: 211.5
Pace: LAC (16th), CLE (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Caris LeVert, Rajon Rondo, Lauri Markkanen and Dean Wade are all listed as questionable for Cleveland.
• Robert Covington has missed the last few games due to personal reasons.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -14, total: 230.5
Pace: POR (16th), ATL (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Anfernee Simons remains out for Portland.
• For Atlanta, John Collins missed Sunday’s game and will be a game-time decision for Monday.

Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -2, total: 221.5
Pace: DEN (20th), PHI (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• The 76ers played an overtime game on Sunday, so make sure no one rests.
• Aaron Gordon is listed as questionable for Denver.

Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

CHA -9.5, total: 232.5
Pace: CHA (3rd), OKC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort remain out for Oklahoma City, while Aaron Wiggins and Ty Jerome are questionable.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs

MIN -4, total: 240.5
Pace: MIN (2nd), SAS (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Anthony Edwards is listed as probable. Jarred Vanderbilt (quad) has been ruled out, while Patrick Beverley is questionable to play.
• For San Antonio, Keita Bates-Diop and Doug McDermott have both been ruled out.

Washington Wizards @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -12.5, total: 225.5
Pace: WAS (23rd), GSW (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Draymond Green is expected to return on Monday but will have a minutes limit. Gary Payton remains out.

Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings

CHI -3.5, total: 235.5
Pace: CHI (14th), SAC (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Zach LaVine was out over the weekend and is listed as questionable again.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Utah Jazz

MIL -1.5, total: 235.5
Pace: MIL (8th), UTA (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Rudy Gobert is listed as questionable with a foot injury. 

Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Lakers

TOR -4.5, total: 225
Pace: TOR (25th), LAL (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Fred VanVleet is listed as questionable for Toronto. Malachi Flynn and OG Anunoby remain sidelined.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Scottie Barnes vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Anytime the Raptors are without Fred VanVleet, Barnes needs to be on your radar, especially with OG Anunoby still sidelined. VanVleet missed Toronto’s last game, and with Malachi Flynn also out, Barnes started at point guard. In that game, the rookie went off for 25 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists in 39 minutes. He recorded a gaudy 105 touches in that contest, and in games when VanVleet has been out, Barnes is averaging 5.7 more fantasy points per game, as well as nearly two more assists per game. And with both VanVleet and Anunoby off the floor this season, Barnes is averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. If VanVleet remains sidelined, Barnes is once again a fantastic play, especially against a fast-paced Los Angeles team that allows the most points (25.4) and fifth-most assists (8.9) per game to opposing point guards on the season.

Nikola Vucevic vs. Sacramento Kings

Vucevic’s price has come down a bit as of late, and now he gets a stellar matchup with the Kings. Of course, you’d feel even better about Vucevic if the Bulls remain without Zach LaVine, who is listed as questionable. With LaVine off the floor, Vucevic’s usage rate is sitting at a healthy 28.6%, while he’s also averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute in the split. Expect him to succeed against a Sacramento team that is coughing up the fourth-most points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick-and-roll this season (8.3), while also allowing the sixth-most points per possession off the play type (1.17). Vucevic, meanwhile, is averaging a league-leading 6.4 points per game as the roll man this season.

Terry Rozier vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Rozier remains cheaper than LaMelo Ball, which once again makes him a better play. Ball’s minutes have been underwhelming, whether it has been due to foul trouble or the addition of Isaiah Thomas, who is playing around 15 minutes per game. Rozier faces an Oklahoma City defense that has obviously taken a step back since the All-Star Break. And over the course of the season, the Thunder are allowing the fifth-most spot-up points per game (30.6), which bodes well for Rozier, who is averaging 5.8 spot-up points per game on the season, good for the eighth-most in all of basketball. He scored 44 fantasy points in 31 minutes during his only meeting with the Thunder this season.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Danilo Gallinari/De’Andre Hunter vs. POR- If John Collins, who is a game-time decision, remains out, I feel much better about Danilo Gallinari and De’Andre Hunter. Gallinari would likely start at power forward again and faces an awful Portland team that ranks bottom-five in spot-up defense on the season, which also bodes well for Hunter.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Jose Alvarado (48)
Lindy Waters (31)
Naji Marshall (37.5)
Wendell Carter Jr. (48.5)
Jonas Valanciunas (54.5)
Trae Young (63.75)
Darius Bazley (48.5)
Deandre Ayton (49.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Jose Alvarado (51.4)
Trae Young (60.1)
Markelle Fultz (32.3)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (62.7)
Darius Bazley (45)
Naji Marshall (36)
Jaxson Hayes (36.2)
Wendell Carter (47.4)
Joel Embiid (71.7)