Best Final Four Bets Today (April 5th)

The Final 4 has arrived! Here are the best March Madness bets today for Saturday, April 5th, 2025. FTN is home to the tools, research, models, data, and experts you need to become a smarter sports bettor.

Here are FTN’s best CBB bets for today. To see more picks from our model, click here. New here? Sign up with the promo code MARCH20 to get 20% off.

March Madness Best Bets Today (March 30, 2025)

Auburn +2.5 vs Florida

-110, DraftKings

Auburn and Florida are as evenly matched as any Final Four pairing we’ve seen in recent years, ranked No. 3 and No. 4 in FTN’s team ratings, respectively, but the Tigers feel slightly better built for this kind of game. While Florida plays faster and has more offensive firepower on paper, Auburn’s physicality, defensive versatility, and dominant interior presence offer a style contrast that could wear the Gators down. They’ve held each of their tournament opponents under 70 points, including disciplined offenses like Creighton and Michigan State, and enter this game ranked top-five nationally in defensive efficiency. If it turns into a grind, and Florida’s pace inevitably slows in a close game, Auburn has the edge in shot quality and rebounding.

The biggest question is whether Florida can keep Johni Broome from taking over. He’s averaging 18.7 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks, and Florida doesn’t have a reliable option to guard him without bringing help. Their best rim protector, Alex Condon, is more mobile than physical, and doubling Broome risks opening up clean looks for Auburn’s guards, who’ve shot nearly 39% from three during the tournament. On the other side, Walter Clayton Jr. has been spectacular for Florida, but Auburn can rotate multiple long, athletic defenders to wear him down and keep him out of rhythm. With how evenly matched these teams are on paper, and the way Auburn’s style matches up, we’ll take the points with the Tigers at +2.5.

Pick: Auburn +2.5

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Houston +5.5 vs Duke

-118, FanDuel

FTN’s model gives Houston +5.5 a 5.83% edge, projecting a tight matchup between the two highest-rated teams in the field. Duke ranks No. 1 and Houston No. 2 in FTN’s power ratings, and both boast top-three defenses — Duke leads the country in adjusted defensive rating (86.3), while Houston is right behind at 88.1. Houston’s pace, however, is a key differentiator. They rank dead last among remaining teams in tempo, averaging just 64.0 possessions per game. In a clash of elite defenses with limited possessions, the points become more valuable, and the model sees real value in taking the underdog to keep it close.

While Duke enters with the higher offensive rating (127.7 to Houston’s 126.1), the Cougars’ physical, switch-heavy defense is built to disrupt flow-heavy offenses like Duke’s. Houston has held opponents to just 38.2% shooting on the season and allows the second-fewest points per game in the country (62.2). They’ve shown the ability to drag high-powered offenses into the mud — holding Tennessee to 50 and Purdue to 60 in their last two outings — and they’ve yet to lose in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Duke’s recent wins have leaned more offensive, but they’ve faced weaker defenses along the way. Cooper Flagg is a force, but Houston has defenders like Joseph Tugler and J’Wan Roberts who can make life difficult for him at the rim. This matchup sets up well for the Cougars to muck things up, play at their preferred pace, and grind their way to a one-possession finish — or better.

Pick: Houston +5.5

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