5 Stats to Know: NBA DFS March 14

Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This article will appear every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.

The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.

Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!

Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.

Brandon Boston, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers (@ CLE)

Brandon Boston has posted a 24.7% usage rate with Paul George, Reggie Jackson, Norman Powell and Eric Bledsoe off the court this season

Boston’s 24.7% usage rate still accounts for Marcus Morris on the floor, who will be absent on Monday for resting purposes. This subtracts yet another high-usage player who should open up more paths to production for Boston, who’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in this scenario. The Cavs’ defense has taken a massive hit in the void of Jarrett Allen, only adding to the no-brainer status that Boston finds himself in at the flat-minimum price ($3,000) on DraftKings.

Trae Young, PG, Atlanta Hawks (vs. POR)

In 12 games without John Collins this season, Trae Young has averaged 34.25 points per game, 20.6% more than in games Collins has been active

We’ve done this dance before, and we’re going to do it again against a historically bad defense. Young has been a do-it-all player in the absence of his partner in crime, as he’s added 9.58 assists and 3.08 rebounds to his 34.25 points per game while posting a 64.93% true shooting percentage. Danilo Gallinari has also been ruled out, opening up incrementally more volume for the young superstar, making him one of my priority spend-ups in arguably the most favorable matchup on the slate.

Jordan Poole, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors (vs. WAS)

Jordan Poole has posted a higher usage rate (24.4%) over the last four games than his teammate, Stephen Curry (22.0%)

One of the hottest offensive players in the league right now, Poole entered the starting lineup last game against Milwaukee and delivered one of his best performances of the season, going for 30 points, six rebounds and five assists in 35 minutes. The absences of Otto Porter and Gary Payton have led to a slight uptick in playing time, as Poole has played at least 30 minutes in five consecutive games. Despite the return of Draymond Green on Monday, Poole should remain heavily involved with the Warriors being double-digit favorites. This should lead to more time for Poole on the court without Curry and Klay Thompson, where he’s posted a 31.8% usage rate and 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. The potential absence of Andrew Wiggins would only strengthen Poole’s case as one of the best mid-tier targets on the slate.

Chris Boucher, PF, Toronto Raptors (@ LAL)

Chris Boucher has averaged 31.38% more DraftKings points per game in games without Fred VanVleet than he has with VanVleet active

The effect that Fred VanVleet being out has on Boucher is a very overlooked aspect of this Raptors’ rotation, as most attention flows to Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent. Over his last two games without VanVleet, Boucher has averaged 21 points, 10.0 rebounds, 2.5 blocks and 2.0 steals in 33.0 minutes per game. He played 30 minutes off of the bench against the Nuggets last game with Armoni Brooks starting for VanVleet and provided elite production off the pine. If VanVleet is ruled out again, Boucher should be firmly in your crosshairs whether he comes off of the bench or starts. 

Nikola Vucevic, C, Chicago Bulls (@ SAC)

Since acquiring Domantas Sabonis, the Kings have allowed the second-highest field-goal percentage in the restricted area (71.1%) and the second-highest field-goal percentage on mid-range shot attempts (47.6%)

While the mid-range may come off like a pro for DeMar DeRozan (it is), it’s certainly a reason to have heightened appeal in Nikola Vucevic at a reduced price. Vucevic is shooting 70.4% in the restricted area this season while shooting 40.8% on mid-range shots, giving him a massive amount of upside against this Kings’ interior. If Zach LaVine gets ruled out, that will only add to the appeal of Vucevic in this matchup.