Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article for that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have a five-game main slate that locks an hour early (6 PM ET), so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for March 13 | NBA DFS First Look
Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic
PHI -12.5, total: 223.5
Pace: PHI (29th), ORL (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- Mo Bamba and Jalen Suggs are listed as questionable for the Magic.
- Danny Green remains out for the Sixers.
Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -12, total: 237.0
Pace: IND (19th), ATL (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. McConnell and Myles Turner remain out for the Pacers. Lance Stephenson should be considered questionable after missing Saturday’s contest.
- John Collins is listed as questionable for the Hawks.
Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -6, total: 229.5
Pace: HOU (2nd), NOP (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Larry Nance and Zion Williamson remain out for the Pelicans.
- John Wall and Usman Garuba remain out for the Rockets.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder
MEM -13.5, total: 230.0
Pace: MEM (7th), OKC (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort, Kenrich Williams, Derrick Favors, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Ty Jerome remain out for the Thunder. Tre Mann failed to practice on Saturday and should be considered questionable for Sunday’s contest.
- Dillon Brooks is listed as questionable for the Grizzlies.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -8.5, total: 230.0
Pace: LAL (5th), PHO (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Davis remains out for the Lakers. LeBron James, Talen Horton-Tucker and Malik Monk are all listed as questionable.
- Chris Paul and Cam Johnson remain out for the Suns.
Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look
Below are two noteworthy matchups to target on Sunday’s NBA DFS slate.
Devin Booker vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Booker continues to assume a do-it-all role in the absences of both Chris Paul and Cam Johnson, posting gaudy stat lines on a nightly basis. In five games without just Paul this season, Booker has averaged 26.0 points, 8.0 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game with a 28.39% usage rate for over 50 DraftKings points per game over this span. The matchup with the Lakers is an appealing one, as they rank 26th or worse against all three of Booker’s aDvP archetypes.
Devonte’ Graham vs. Houston Rockets
CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram remain out on Sunday, meaning we’ll get another heavy dose of Devonte’ Graham filling the void. He received a $2,000 price hike on DraftKings ($6,200), but given the role he’s filling, that may still be $1,000 too cheap. Last game without the star duo, Graham posted a 23.9% usage rate, 28.0% assist rate and 1.19 DraftKings points per minute. In arguably the best matchup one can ask for, Graham should be in store for another heavy workload with very little competition for touches, making him an elite mid-tier target.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate are listed below for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Joel Embiid ($12,000)
- LeBron James ($11,800)
- James Harden ($11,000)
- Ja Morant ($10,400)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- LeBron James ($10,900)
- Joel Embiid ($10,700)
- Devin Booker ($10,400)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,300)
- Ja Morant ($10,200)
With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, which is exactly what we’ll do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on DraftKings from last night’s slate:
- PG: Tre Jones (46.5)
- SG: Klay Thompson (60.0)
- SF: Scottie Barnes (58.0)
- PF: Chris Boucher (49.25)
- C: Hassan Whiteside (48.75)
- G: Jordan Clarkson (54.5)
- F: Josh Hart (72.5)
- UTIL: De’Aaron Fox (70.25)
Total: 459.75
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel from last night’s slate:
- PG: Tre Jones (47.00)
- PG: De’Aaron Fox (68.1)
- SG: Klay Thompson (56.7)
- SG: Jordan Clarkson (52.00)
- SF: Scottie Barnes (57.6)
- SF: Josh Hart (71.6)
- PF: Pascal Siakam (54.5)
- PF: Chris Boucher (51.6)
- C: Hassan Whiteside (49.7)
Total: 508.8
Nearly every single value play absolutely obliterated their expectations on Saturday, and the two optimal lineups illustrate exactly that. The FanDuel optimal topped 500 (!!) points while leaving a whopping $5,300 in salary on the table. Similarly, the DraftKings optimal left $1,200 on the table while topping 450 points. While the vast majority of players won’t take risks like that on a full slate, most of these players were staples in all winning lineups. Tre Jones was the chalkiest play on the slate, finishing one point shy of a triple-double, while the Raptors came in under-rostered relative to the news of Fred VanVleet being ruled out, simply due to the copious number of viable options on the slate.
