Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have eight games on Friday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for December 17 | NBA DFS First Look
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic
MIA -6, total: 209.0
Pace: MIA (27th), ORL (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin remain out for the Heat while Tyler Herro is listed as questionable.
- Cole Anthony, Mo Bamba and Gary Harris are listed as questionable for the Magic while Jalen Suggs, Michael Carter-Williams and Markelle Fultz remain out.
Denver Nuggets @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -4, total: 223.5
Pace: DEN (25th), ATL (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and Markus Howard are all out for the Nuggets.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter remain out for the Hawks.
Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics
GS -3.5, total: 215.0
Pace: GSW (9th), BOS (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jabari Parker has been ruled out for the Celtics.
- Klay Thompson and James Wiseman remain out for the Warriors. Jordan Poole has also been ruled out.
Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans
MIL -2.5, total: 217.5
Pace: MIL (10th), NOP (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis have all been ruled out for the Bucks. Khris Middleton is listed as probable and Thanasis Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful.
- Zion Williamson remains out for the Pelicans.
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz
UTA -11.5, total: 2260
Pace: SAS (7th), UTA (19th)
Situations to monitor:
- Lonnie Walker is listed as questionable for the Spurs.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -2, total: 221.5
Pace: LAL (1st), MIN (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as probable for the Lakers. Russell Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker, Dwight Howard and Avery Bradley have all been ruled out.
Charlotte Hornets @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -2, total: 228.5
Pace: CHA (3rd), POR (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- LaMelo Ball is listed as questionable for the Hornets.
- CJ McCollum is listed as out, Dennis Smith questionable for the Blazers.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings
MEM -5, total: 224.0
Pace: MEM (12th), SAC (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- De’Aaron Fox, Alex Len and Richaun Holmes are listed as doubtful for the Kings while Tyrese Haliburton and Chimezie Metu are listed as questionable. Terence Davis and Marvin Bagley have been ruled out.
- Brandon Clarke, Ja Morant and Ziaire Williams remain out for the Grizzlies.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.
In 147.4 minutes with De’Aaron Fox, Terence Davis and Marvin Bagley off the floor this season, Davion Mitchell has posted a 25.9% usage rate
No player on the Kings has logged more minutes in this scenario than Mitchell, leading me to believe he’ll be arguably the biggest beneficiary with these three players out on Friday. He’s posted a 24.1% assist rate and 0.89 fantasy points per minute in that span and while the per-minute production is underwhelming, his workload Friday should mitigate that. For under $4,000 on DraftKings, this is a no-brainer play.
With Russell Westbrook off the court this season, the Lakers drop from first in pace (102.86) to 25th (96.89)
With a matchup against the Timberwolves that initially pops off of the page as a fantasy goldmine given the projected pace, the absence of Russell Westbrook could severely distort that potential. LeBron James is likely to operate as the primary ball-handler, clearly leading to a more methodical half-court offense. While this doesn’t deter from the strength of James or Anthony Davis as spend-ups, it certainly knocks the game environment as a whole.
The Charlotte Hornets currently rank 23rd against skilled centers and 28th against opposing rebounders, per advanced DvP
It’s no secret the Hornets have gotten obliterated by opposing centers this season. Friday, they’re at the mercy of yet another dominant center in Jusuf Nurkic. He currently ranks ninth in the league in rebounding chances per game (18.1) in only 25.4 minutes per game, at least 4.6 minutes less than every player ahead of him. If Nurkic cracks the 30-minute mark Friday, we could have a moon game on our hands.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Below are two of the top value plays on Friday’s slate. For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.
Tristan Thompson (SAC): With Marvin Bagley, Richaun Holmes and Alex Len all slated to miss Friday’s game, the Kings’ frontcourt is down to two players; Thompson and Chimezie Metu. The latter is listed as questionable, so there’s a chance that Thompson will be the last man standing. A 1.01 DK point-per-minute producer with those three off the floor, Thompson is the best value center on the slate.
Jordan Nwora (MIL): The Bucks are slated to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis in their frontcourt, leaving the power forward position incredibly thin. Nwora should be able to take advantage given the history we’ve seen. He posted over 30 fantasy points in 27 minutes last game and last season was a 1.27 DK-point-per-minute producer with a 29.7% usage rate with Portis and Antetokounmpo off the floor. I’m going right back to the well for $3,300 on DraftKings on Friday.
For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
- Stephen Curry ($11,300)
- LeBron James ($10,400)
- Trae Young ($10,200)
- Dejounte Murray ($9,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,600)
- LeBron James ($11,000)
- Anthony Davis ($10,200)
- Trae Young ($10,000)
- Stephen Curry ($9,900)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- LeBron James (1x)
- Stephen Curry (1x)
- Karl-Anthony Towns (1.1x)
With Friday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Thursday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest-scoring overall player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Thursday.
- PG: Immanuel Quickley (40.50)
- SG: Evan Fournier (29.25)
- SF: Saddiq Bey (50.00)
- PF: Kevin Durant (62.25)
- C: Myles Turner (34.25)
- G: Bradley Beal (37.75)
- F: Daniel Theis (44.00)
- UTIL: KJ Martin (29.25)
Total: 327.50
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $350 SUPER Swingman ($100k to first) Thursday.
- PG: Cade Cunningham (39.2)
- PG: Shake Milton (26.2)
- SG: Caris LeVert (49.1)
- SG: Seth Curry (40.6)
- SF: Saddiq Bey (45.5)
- SF: Kevin Durant (58.2)
- PF: Myles Turner (37.9)
- PF: Julius Randle (37.2)
- C: Daniel Theis (43.5)
Total: 377.4
Thursday’s slate took a few turns, as Malcolm Brogdon was scratched as we approached lock and Tyrese Maxey was ruled out after the first game had locked. This led to Caris LeVert and Brad Wanamaker being two of the chalkiest plays on the slate, with LeVert the only one that really contributed to a winning lineup (as shown above).
The Nets value pieces didn’t get there as they did Tuesday, as both winning lineups had Kevin Durant as the lone Nets player in them. Instead, it was the Alperen Sengun pivot, Daniel Theis, who provided the most per-dollar value on the slate … just how we all drew it up.
