NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have nine games on Friday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for December 10 | NBA DFS First Look
Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets
SAC -1, total: 228.5
Pace: SAC (8th), CHA (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, Ish Smith and Jalen McDaniels all remain out for the Hornets.
- Richaun Holmes has been ruled out for the Kings.
Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers
IND -1.5, total: 213.5
Pace: DAL (27th), IND (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- T.J. Warren, T.J. McConnell and Justin Holiday remain out for the Pacers.
- Willie Cauley-Stein has been ruled out, while Sterling Brown is listed as questionable for the Mavs.
Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -1, total: 224.0
Pace: BKN (11th), ATL (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter remain out for the Hawks, while Cam Reddish is listed as probable.
- Joe Harris remains out for the Nets.
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -1.5, total: 209.5
Pace: NYK (25th), TOR (28th)
Situations to monitor:
- Precious Achiuwa is questionable for the Raptors. Khem Birch and OG Anunoby remain out.
- Nerlens Noel is listed as probable for the Knicks.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets
MIL -8.5, total: 225.0
Pace: MIL (9th), HOU (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable for the Bucks while George Hill is listed as questionable.
- Kevin Porter and Jalen Green remain out for the Rockets.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -1, total: 213.0
Pace: CLE (23rd), MIN (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- D’Angelo Russell is listed as questionable for the Timberwolves while Patrick Beverley is listed as probable.
- Collin Sexton remains out for the Cavs.
Detroit Pistons @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -5.5, total: 212.0
Pace: DET (17th), NOP (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Zion Williamson and Kira Lewis have been ruled out for the Pelicans.
- Kelly Olynyk remains out for the Pistons.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
LAL -6, total: 215.5
Pace: LAL (2nd), OKC (15th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Boston Celtics @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -5.5, total: 216.5
Pace: BOS (20th), PHO (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- Devin Booker and Frank Kaminsky have been ruled out for the Suns.
- Jaylen Brown has been ruled out for the Celtics.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.
Eric Gordon sees a team-high +6.6% increase in usage rate with Kevin Porter and Jalen Green off of the court.
Gordon has been the direct beneficiary of both guards missing time both from a minutes standpoint and a production standpoint. In addition to the usage rate increase (up to 27.5%), he also sees a +2.7% increase in assist rate and a +0.18 increase in fantasy points per minute. The Bucks have been prone to giving it up from deep, giving up the third-most threes per game (13.7) on the most attempts (41.2) per game, giving Gordon an extra boost given his 5.2 three-point-attempts per game.
Over his last three games, Kelly Oubre is averaging 28.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.3 steals in 41.1 minutes per game.
With a chunk of the Hornets’ roster on the COVID-19 list, Oubre has stepped up as the go-to offensive weapon and he hasn’t disappointed. His $7,800 price tag may instill some sticker shock, but his volume backs it up, as he’s averaged 21.0 shots per game over this stretch. In an up-tempo matchup with the Kings, Oubre should be in for another heavy dose of volume.
In six games as a starter this season, Alec Burks has averaged 18.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 25.8 minutes per game.
Burks’ stellar play has continued ever since the lineup change saw him take over the reins at the starting point guard spot, despite concerns over his production dipping playing alongside other high-usage players. He’s shot 40% from the field over this span and has added 1.5 steals while shooting 38.9% from three, showing little signs of drop-off virtually anywhere. His price remains fair in the $6k range and on a nine-game slate, his ownership simply won’t get to the level it should.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Below are two of the top value plays on Friday’s slate. For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.
Eric Gordon, Houston Rockets: Virtually echoing the above stat about Gordon, he’s continued to capitalize with the depleted wing depth in Houston. He’s scored at least 20 points in three consecutive games and now draws a matchup against a team that struggles where he excels the most; beyond the arc.
Cameron Johnson, Phoenix Suns: With Devin Booker remaining sidelined Friday, Johnson should once again see an uptick in playing time off of the bench. He’s logged at least 27 minutes in four consecutive games with 10 or more field goal attempts in three of the four. He’s made at least two threes in all four games and has only dropped below 5.8x once over that span. He’s as steady as they come, making him an elite value target at $4,600 on DraftKings.
For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- James Harden ($11,200)
- Luka Doncic ($11,000)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900)
- Kevin Durant ($10,800)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
- Kevin Durant ($10,600)
- James Harden ($10,400)
- LeBron James ($10,200)
- Anthony Davis ($10,000)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- James Harden (1x)
With Friday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Thursday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how Thursday’s slate went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Tyus Jones (30.00)
SG: Desmond Bane (39.25)
SF: LeBron James (63.50)
PF: Jaren Jackson (36.75)
C: Rudy Gobert (49.75)
G: De’Anthony Melton (30.50)
F: Lonnie Walker (32.00)
UTIL: Hassan Whiteside (33.00)
Total: 314.75
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Legendary Layup ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Derrick White (44.2)
PG: Tyus Jones (29.8)
SG: Desmond Bane (39.1)
SG: Lonnie Walker (30.3)
SF: LeBron James (61.5)
SF: Kyle Anderson (23.8)
PF: Jaren Jackson (37.0)
PF: Aaron Gordon (38.7)
C: Rudy Gobert (48.7)
Total: 353.1
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s NBA Jump Shot ($2k to first) Thursday night.
G: Desmond Bane (60.54)
G: Will Barton (48.21)
G: Derrick White (65.97)
F: LeBron James (68.78)
F: Joel Embiid (46.99)
F: Aaron Gordon (58.50)
C: Nikola Jokic (64.25)
Total: 413.25
With only three games Thursday, it was a relatively quiet slate, as there was no breaking news after lock either. Two of the three winning lineups on the slate had at least three Grizzlies’ players, as both Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks missed Thursday’s game, opening up massive usage. The winning DraftKings lineup found their lottery ticket, as they rostered both centers from the same team (Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside), something that rarely works out with these players given the fact that they operate as one-for-one substitutes. With both Nikola Jokic and Dejounte Murray carrying significant ownership at the top of the pricing scale, it was LeBron James who ended up being the best spend-up, finding himself in all three winning lineups.
