Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have 13 games on tap on Wednesday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 10 | NBA DFS First Look
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
WAS -4, total: 211.5
Pace: WAS )14th), CLE (23rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Collin Sexton, Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen have all been ruled out for the Cavs. Isaac Okoro is expected to play.
- Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Thomas Bryant remain out for the Wizards.
Brooklyn Nets @ Orlando Magic
BKN -9, total: 210.0
Pace: BKN (13th), ORL (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics
BOS -2, total: 210.0
Pace: TOR (29th), BOS (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jaylen Brown is out for the Celtics.
- Khem Birch is out for the Raptors.
Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks
NYK -3, total: 215.0
Pace: MIL (8th), NYK (26th)
Situations to monitor:
- Khris Middleton and Donte DiVincenzo remain out for the Bucks, while Brook Lopez is listed as questionable, though he has not played since the season opener.
- Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel are both listed as questionable for the Knicks.
Detroit Pistons @ Houston Rockets
HOU -1.5, total: 210.5
Pace: DET (21st), HOU (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Kevin Porter is questionable for the Rockets.
- Killian Hayes is listed as probable for the Pistons.
Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -4 total: 212.0
Pace: DAL (24th), CHI (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- Maxi Kleber remains out for the Mavericks.
Charlotte Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -4.5, total: 228.5
Pace: CHA (4th), MEM (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- P.J. Washington has been ruled out for the Hornets.
- Dillon Brooks remains out for the Grizzlies, while Ziaire Williams is listed as questionable.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -5.5, total: 211.5
Pace: OKC (12th), NOP (16th)
Situations to monitor:
- Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones are both listed as questionable for the Pelicans.
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs
SAC -0.5, total: 220.0
Pace: SAC (9th), SAS (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jakob Poeltl remains out for the Spurs, while Keita Bates-Diop is listed as questionable.
- Tyrese Haliburton and Terence Davis are listed as questionable for the Kings
Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets
IND -3.5, total: 213.5
Pace: IND (19th), DEN (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter and Jamal Murray are all out for the Nuggets, while Monte Morris is listed as probable.
- Malcolm Brogdon is expected to play for the Pacers, while T.J. Warren remains out without a timetable for return.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns
PHX -6.5, total: 220.5
Pace: POR (11th), PHO (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Deandre Ayton remains out for the Suns while Landry Shamet is listed as doubtful.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -7.5, total: 223.0
Pace: MIN (10th), GSW (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers
MIA -4, total: 214.0
Pace: MIA (28th), LAL (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- LeBron James has been ruled out for the Lakers, while Anthony Davis is listed as probable for the Lakers while Rajon Rondo is listed as questionable.
- Bam Adebayo, P.J. Tucker and Tyler Herro are all listed as questionable for the Heat.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Wednesday.
Ricky Rubio is averaging a career-high 17.7 points per 36 minutes to go along with 8.8 assists and 4.8 rebounds.
Rubio has seen a bit of a revival as the backup point guard in Cleveland and now gets the opportunity to slide back into the starting lineup with Collin Sexton ruled out. Rubio started the second half for Sexton last game against the Knicks, finishing the game with 37 points and 10 assists, and while this is far from an expected outcome on this slate, he’s topped 36 DraftKings points in four of the six games this season that he’s played at least 28 minutes. With 30-plus minutes a realistic expectation, he’s far too cheap at $5,200 on DraftKings.
Over his last two games as a starter, Bobby Portis has averaged 16.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 2.0 blocks in 33.0 minutes per game.
The production has been off the charts for the electric big man, who’s averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute over that span, but it doesn’t necessarily come as a surprise. Portis averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per game last season as a whole and is averaging 1.11 per minute this year, with an obvious jump in production with the increase in minutes and usage. His price sits at $5,500, only a $100 increase from Tuesday’s slate and a $900 increase from Sunday’s slate, making him far too cheap for the role he has given the lack of depth in the Bucks’ frontcourt right now.
Jarrett Allen is second in the NBA in rebounding chances per game (24.3) over the last seven days.
Allen has been playing massive minutes with Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love out, and the expected return of Isaac Okoro should do nothing to spell those minutes Wednesday. He’s posted rebounding totals of 16, 17, 15, and 17 rebounds in four games over the last week, but he’s also been extremely productive on the offensive end, averaging 20.5 points per game. Getting a realistic 20/20 upside for only $7,500 should be considered a bargain, making Allen an elite target at the center position Wednesday.
Last season without Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter and Jamal Murray on the floor, Will Barton posted a 25.2% usage rate and 1.09 DK points per minute.
The Nuggets are going to be severely lacking playmakers Wednesday, and while Barton doesn’t necessarily fit that mold, he can undoubtedly produce when called upon. In addition to the 25.2% usage rate, he posted a 29.6% assist rate and has now scored at least 36 DraftKings points in three consecutive contests. With a sieve of a defense on the other side of this game (Pacers), Barton sets up as a great mid-tier target on both FanDuel and DraftKings, regardless of whether you think this game stays close.
In two games without Jaylen Brown this season, Dennis Schroder has averaged 19.0 points, 5.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game.
He’s stepped into the starting lineup in both games, one against the Rockets and one against the Mavericks, averaging 36.0 minutes per game and seeing the largest bump in his role outside of Jayson Tatum. If you don’t want to pay the premium for Tatum on a 13-game slate, Schroder is an easy pivot that will save you thousands on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,300)
- Stephen Curry ($11,700)
- Luka Doncic ($11,400)
- Russell Westbrook ($11,300)
- Anthony Davis ($11,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
- Anthony Davis ($10,800)
- Kevin Durant ($10,500)
- Stephen Curry ($10,200)
- Luka Doncic ($10,000)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- Stephen Curry (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x)
- Russell Westbrook (1x)
With Wednesday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Tuesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
With only three games and a massive amount of Sixers’ value on the Tuesday slate, ownership was obviously quite condensed. The piece of breaking news that really allowed people to differentiate (at least for a three-game slate) was Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter getting ruled out after slate-lock. This opened the door for more minutes for Kevin Huerter, who came in at only 19.03% owned on DraftKings and 19.8% owned on FanDuel, while ending up topping 40 fantasy points on each site for nearly the minimum price.
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $450k Pull Up Jumper ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
PG: Tyrese Maxey (49.25)
SG: Shake Milton (34.00)
SF: Kevin Huerter (42.25)
PF: Bobby Portis (44.00)
C: Andre Drummond (52.50)
G: Grayson Allen (34.50)
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo (62.50)
UTIL: Nicolas Batum (36.00)
Total: 355.00
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
PG: Tyrese Maxey (49.0)
PG: Reggie Jackson (35.4)
SG: Donovan Mitchell (46.1)
SG: Eric Bledsoe (32.0)
SF: Kevin Huerter (40.1)
SF: Norman Powell (34.1)
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (62.2)
PF: Bobby Portis (41.5)
C: Andre Drummond (51.5)
Total: 291.9
As alluded to, the Sixers’ value took over the slate, as both winning lineups had at least two pieces, with DraftKings adding a third in Shake Milton. The obvious runbacks of Antetokounmpo and Portis made for a chalky core, so seeing differentiation with Grayson Allen or under-the-radar pieces in the late games like Nicolas Batum and Norman Powell did just enough to get these lineups over the top.
