Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true.
Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.”
Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.
Here are the five players most likely to break the slate in Week 10.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Washington defense is prone to big pass plays, and Tom Brady and the Bucs are going to take advantage in Week 10. Washington has allowed 17 completions of 20-plus yards, tied for third-most. More importantly, they have allowed 7 of those completions to go for TDs — most deep balls allowed for TDs through nine weeks. Brady’s 16 deep ball completions ranks fifth among QBs. But it’s not just the deep passing lanes that should be open. Washington has been generous all around, giving up the most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs and the most yards per game (299).
Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Vegas odds have the Vikings-Chargers game remaining competitive throughout (MIN +2) with a high over/under of 52, second highest of all Week 10 contests. Dalvin Cook is good for 20 touches as a floor with upside for 30, and the Chargers defense is soft against the rush. With six men in the box, the Chargers allow 5.7 YPC, second-most in the league. With seven in the box, they allow 5 YPC — most in the league. They are also bottom 10 with eight in the box. Their 11 rush TDs allowed is the fourth most in the NFL, and they also rank fifth worst in missed tackles on run plays. No matter how you slice it, the Vikings D is a favorable matchup for good RBs.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor’s recent run has been ridiculous. He has been Christian McCaffrey-like with an average of 28.4 DraftKings points per game over this last six contests, and that’s with only 16-20 touches per game. Taylor is tied for the league lead with 22 rushes of 10-plus yards and has by far the most rushes from inside the 5 (18, next-closest is 12). His total red-zone usage is just off the charts.
The Jaguars, his Week 10 opponent, rank in the bottom five in rush attempts allowed inside the 10 and 5, and they have allowed the (tied for) fifth-most rush TDs on the year.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We raved about Brady’s matchup above, and the truth is, we could have put any Bucs WR here. The deep ball praise aligns more with Mike Evans, but Chris Godwin gets the slate-breaker nod given his individual matchup advantage, which should lead to a slew of targets all game long. According to our WR/CB matchup tool, Godwin has the best individual matchup of all starting WRs this week. If Washington plans to use Landon Collins in the slot this week, they may change their mind after a long afternoon with Godwin. From the slot, Collins (with a small sample of 65 routes covered) was targeted on over 50% of his routes covered while allowing a 71% catch rate. Godwin, meanwhile, has paced Tampa in targets in three of their last four games.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
DK Metcalf has a few good things going for him this week. For starters, Russell Wilson appears primed to return. Second, Metcalf has the second-best individual WR/CB matchup of the week. He should see a lot of CB Kevin King, who has allowed a 76% catch rate (second most among starting RCBs) and 0.35 fantasy points per route covered (fourth most among starting RCBs). Green Bay has done well against WRs overall this season, but they have been bossed around by alpha WRs in Terry McLaurin (7-122-1), Ja’Marr Chase (6-159-1) and Diontae Johnson (9-92-1). Metcalf has been a TD-scoring machine, with at least one score in all but one game this season, including 5 TDs in his last four games.
