Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have 10 games on Monday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for January 3 | NBA DFS First Look
Houston Rockets @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -13, total: 221.5
Pace: ORL (17th), BOS (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Alperen Sengun and Armoni Brooks have been ruled out for the Rockets while Kevin Porter and Eric Gordon are listed as questionable.
- Danny Green is listed as questionable for the Sixers.
Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards
WAS -2, total: 228.5
Pace: IND (23rd), CLE (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- P.J. Washington is listed as questionable for the Hornets.
- Spencer Dinwiddie, Montrezl Harrell, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant, Aaron Holiday, Brad Wanamaker, Raul Neto and Anthony Gill have been ruled out for the Wizards.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -7, total: 228.5
Pace: MIA (27th), SAC (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton, John Konchar, Xavier Tillman, Kyle Anderson and Sam Merrill have been ruled out for the Grizzlies. Jarrett Culver and Ziaire Williams are questionable.
- Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris remain out for the Nets while LaMarcus Aldridge is listed as questionable.
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -13.5, total: 222.5
Pace: PHO (5th), CHA (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Chuma Okeke, Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, Michael Carter-Williams and Robin Lopez are listed as out for the Magic. Cole Anthony is listed as questionable.
- Alex Caruso, Javonte Green, Alfonzo McKinnie, Tyler Cook and Patrick Williams all remain out for the Bulls.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -16, total: 226.0
Pace: DAL (29th), OKC (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jerami Grant, Kelly Olynyk, Cory Joseph, Derrick Walton and Frank Jackson are out for the Pistons. Isaiah Stewart is listed as questionable.
- Brook Lopez, Semi Ojeleye, Thanasis Antetokounmpo and Donte DiVincenzo have been ruled out for the Bucks. Khris Middleton is listed as questionable.
Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans
UTA -11, total: 226.5
Pace: MIN (6th), LAL (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Hassan Whiteside is listed as questionable for the Jazz.
- Jonas Valanciunas and Brandon Ingram are questionable for the Pelicans while Tomas Satoransky has been ruled out.
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -3.5, total: 213.0
Pace: MIN (6th), LAL (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Monte Morris, Jeff Green and Bones Hyland have been ruled out for the Nuggets. Austin Rivers and Vlatko Cancar are listed as probable.
- Brandon Knight, Willie Cauley-Stein, Boban Marjanovic and Isaiah Thomas have been ruled out for the Mavs. Trey Burke is listed as questionable.
Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -9, total: 218.5
Pace: MIN (6th), LAL (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Victor Oladipo, Marcus Garrett, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris are listed as out for the Heat. KZ Okpala and Max Strus are listed as questionable.
- Klay Thompson and James Wiseman remain out for the Warriors.
Atlanta Hawks @ Portland Trail Blazers
ATL -5.5, total: 226.5
Pace: MIN (6th), LAL (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- John Collins, Gorgui Dieng and Bogdan Bogdanovic remain out for the Hawks. Cam Reddish, Danilo Gallinari, Delon Wright and Kevin Huerter are listed as probable.
- Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are out, while Jusuf Nurkic is listed as doubtful and Anfernee Simons is listed as questionable for the Blazers.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -3, total: 219.0
Pace: MIN (6th), LAL (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell have been ruled out for the Timberwolves.
- Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Luke Kennard and Isaiah Hartenstein are out for the Clippers. Nicolas Batum is listed as questionable.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Monday.
In 353.8 minutes without De’Anthony Melton and Dillon Brooks on the court this season, Ja Morant has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute
Over that span, he’s also posted a 34.3% usage rate and 33.5% assist rate, flashing his true superstar ability. With so much usage vacated in the lineup and off the bench, Morant should continue to shoulder the entire offensive load for a price that won’t break your bank as much as the other spend-ups will.
With Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic off the floor this season, Norman Powell leads the Blazers with a 36.0% usage rate
Since there are virtually zero other offensive weapons on the court in this scenario, Powell steps up as the de facto No. 1 on offense, posting an elite usage rate. His 1.04 DraftKings points per minute clip is another plus considering the fact that he should see upwards of 40 minutes in this game, making him one of the most popular mid-tier options on Monday’s slate.
Out of Joel Embiid’s seven archetypes assigned by FTNDaily’s advanced DvP tool, the Houston Rockets rank 21st or worse against six of them
The six traits that the Rockets struggle mightily against are skilled center (21st), rebounder (22nd), primary ball handler (22nd), superstar (26th), scorer (26th) and point forward (26th). Virtually everything that Embiid does in terms of production on the court is a glaring weakness for the Rockets’ defense. With so much attention likely on Nikola Jokic at the top of the pricing spectrum, Embiid operates as an elite pivot Monday.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($12,400)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
- Stephen Curry ($11,500)
- Joel Embiid ($11,400)
- James Harden ($11,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600)
- Nikola Jokic ($11,500)
- James Harden ($11,400)
- Kevin Durant ($11,200)
- Joel Embiid ($10,800)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Joel Embiid (1x)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
With Monday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Sunday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from Sunday’s $150k Fadeaway ($50k to first):
- PG: Duane Washington (28.75)
- SG: Jaylen Brown (76.25)
- SF: Josh Giddey (66.75)
- PF: Evan Mobley (39.75)
- C: Damian Jones (35.50)
- G: Gary Harris (35.25)
- F: Wendell Carter (50.00)
- UTIL: Omer Yurtseven (45.00)
Total: 377.25
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from Sunday’s $150k Sun NBA Shot ($30k to first):
- PG: Patrick Beverley (36.8)
- PG: Marcus Smart (42.9)
- SG: Duane Washington (27.1)
- SG: Josh Giddey (62.6)
- SF: Jaylen Brown (71.2)
- SF: LeBron James (52.9)
- PF: Domantas Sabonis (58.1)
- PF: Jalen Smith (38.4)
- C: Damian Jones (32.5)
Total: 422.5
With so much late news coming out as we approached lock on Sunday’s slate, the most expensive player on the slate, LeBron James, was an afterthought. This pushed a heap of rostership to the $9k-$10k tier made up of Jimmy Butler, Domantas Sabonis and Jaylen Brown. Brown ended up as the highest-scoring player on the slate at under 20% owned on DraftKings, while Sabonis was able to score over 60 DK points and didn’t even make the winning lineup. The chalk value was derived from the Kings frontcourt (Damian Jones) and the Pacers backcourt (Duane Washington), while Josh Giddey served as an under-rostered difference-maker en route to his first career triple-double.
