Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! There may not be any NBA games Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing for us to bet. The futures markets like to win the title, conference and division, but also awards and in-season NBA regular season totals offer a chance to find value.
It’s a long season and these numbers move often and sometimes in a big way. Timing your entry can make sure you get the best price and allow you to create a strong portfolio of bets throughout the season. Joel Embiid MVP bettors cashed their tickets, but several smart bettors were going to win whether it was Embiid, Nikola Jokic, or someone else because bet on each player at the right time and at the right numbers. Be sure to keep a good log of your futures bets so you can easily see where you stand before making any more futures bets. You can check out all my picks from the preseason on the Bet Tracker, but it’s always best to keep track on your own.
Let’s take a look at how prices stand in the betting markets and see if there’s any value for us to grab.
To Win the 2023-24 NBA Championship
Odds in this market haven’t shifted much. The Boston Celtics are now the favorites but moved from +425 down to +360 while the Milwaukee Bucks moved from +400 to +410. The Los Angeles Lakers dropped from the No. 5 favorite at +1000 to the No. 7 favorite at +1400 being passed by the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angles Clippers. The Golden State price hasn’t changed, while the Clippers moved from +2000 down to +1300 largely because of the James Harden trade. The Philadelphia 76ers have roughly the same odds as they did preseason, as do the Dallas Mavericks. That ends my list of teams I could see winning the title this season. Maybe the Miami Heat can finally make a deal for a star, but I’m not holding my breath. Any other would have to make a shockingly big trade or have Zion Williamson play 65-plus games and be healthy in the postseason. As I said preseason and will continue to say until it changes, I can’t believe the Denver Nuggets are not the favorite. I have Nuggets to win the title at +550 and better already, but if you don’t, grab anything +500 while you still can. The only concern was that the Denver bench might be too thin without Bruce Brown, but Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun and Peyton Watson have played well. Get yourself some Nuggets to win the title if you don’t already have some, but otherwise I think we can pass on every other team for now.
Bets
Denver Nuggets to Win the 2023-24 NBA Championship +500 or better if you haven’t already bet it.
To Win the 2023-24 Conference Championships
Just like the odds for the champions, the Boston Celtics switched spots with the Milwaukee to become favorites with the Bucks price remaining the same at 175 and the Celtics pricing getting slightly lower down to +155. The odds for every other team got a little higher, but not high enough to warrant a wager in what is a two-team race barring a big trade. You can combine a bet on both the Celtics and the Bucks to create a wager on either team to make the NBA Finals at +130, but that’s worth doing this early in the season. There’s no value at this point, so no bets.
The prices to win the Western Conference are largely the same for the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks as they were before the season began. The Los Angeles Clippers moved from +1100 to +650 and the Lakers fell from +550 to +750. No surprises there and everything looks in order to me. The odds for the Nuggets and Suns should likely be a little lower than they are now, but not enough to bet on them. I’m keeping an eye on the Warriors, but their schedule doesn’t ease up until after Christmas, so we’ll wait until then. No bets here either.
Bets
None
2023-24 NBA Division Winner Odds
The Atlantic, Central and Northwest have big favorites, as expected. We bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the Central at +275 preseason which you can get right now and should bet if you haven’t already. Our bets on the Atlanta Hawks to win the Southeast and Dallas Mavericks to win the Southwest have accrued value. We have some equity to play with, but there’s no other teams worth betting at the time. The Pacific division is wide open and should be because these are tied to regular season win-loss results. The Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers will all likely rest players and trade losses for rested stars.
Bets
Cleveland Cavaliers to win the Central Division at +275 or better if you haven’t already bet it.
2023-24 NBA Award Winners
MVP hasn’t moved much other than to tighten up at the top. Nikola Jokic moved from +450 to +300 and Luka Doncic moved from +550 to +425. Jayson Tatum and Stephen Curry have roughly the same odds as they did a month ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been injured and it looks like the Thunder will not be in the top tier of the league which is required to win this award. The only mildly interesting wager that I wouldn’t hate you if you made because you for some reason have to make the bet would be on Anthony Edwards. He has shown flashes of being a top-10 player in the NBA this season and the Minnesota Timberwolves might be able to be a top 3 seed. Even if it all that happens, he probably loses to Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic or Jayson Tatum, but +4000 is not a terrible bet on Edwards and the Timberwolves to become contenders to win the Western Conference. Otherwise, nothing to see here.
Rookie of the Year appears to be decided very early. It turns out that the 65-game requirement to win awards does not apply to Rookie of the Year, which means that Victor Wembanyama is going to win barring an unlikely major injury. Honestly, -350 might even be value, but that’s a bad idea this early. Nothing to see here either.
Defensive Player of the Year has seen only one big move, and that is Victor Wembanyama moving up to the No. 5 favorite in the betting markets at +1000. The winner of this award has been given to a player on a top-three defense each of the last 10 years. The San Antonio Spurs are 29th in defense currently. Don’t bet on Victor Wembanyama to win DPOY. I don’t see any value in this market right now.
Most Improved Player has moved a lot in the first few weeks of the season with a clear favorite and clear group of top four options. Tyrese Maxey is now the clear betting favorite at +225 and has been great leading the Philadelphia 76ers without James Harden. If things continue as they are, he should be the clear favorite. Barring an injury or a trade by the 76ers for another player who needs the ball, Maxey wins. All that said, +225 is not worth betting in November. Maybe another player pops for a few weeks and we can grab Maxey close to +1000, but we have to wait until then although it seems unlikely. Scottie Barnes is second favorite at +550, but the Toronto Raptors will struggle to win enough games to earn Barnes the votes he needs. Cam Thomas and Cade Cunningham are next at +1000 and similar to Barnes, are on teams that are unlikely to win enough games. No bets here.
Coach of the Year is tough to find this time of the year, but fret not, there’s nothing of value in the prices you can find. There has yet to be a team that looks primed to win 10-plus more games than expected this season, so the favorites are coaches of championship favorites. There are no good bets to be made here.
Thank you for patience those past five paragraphs, and that patience will be rewarded, because the Sixth Man of the Year betting market looks like a mess to me, and we have wagers to place. Let’s start with what does make sense, and that’s two of the top three betting favorites for 6MOY. Chris Paul, Immanuel Quickley and Tim Hardaway are all roughly +700. Paul and Quickley are clear favorites so far. We have a Paul ticket already and I’m not betting anyone lower than +1000 this early in the season. Hardway winning is possible and he deserves to be third, but not tied with the previous two guys.
Now we’re going to cross of a few guys who are going to start too many games to eligible. Kelly Oubre is +1200 despite being a starter for the 76ers and likely to continue as such. Cam Thomas is expected to go back to the bench once Cameron Johnson is healthy, but Thomas has started six games and been key to the Nets offensive success. There’s a good chance he stays in the starting five and either Dinwiddie or Simmons move to the bench. Malcolm Brogdon has been starting recently, could be traded and even be a starter after he is traded. Malik Monk fits the bill, but the Sacramento Kings are going to struggle to win enough games to earn votes for Monk. We just threw out the top seven betting favorites and every player with odds less than +2000 which means there has to be value in some longshots. Norm Powell was in the second tier of favorites for this award preseason and has drifted out to +2000 and higher. With the Harden trade, the Clippers have the upside to win a lot of games with Powell featured off the bench in big moments. Let’s bet that.
Eric Gordon has been a starter, but I’m willing to bet that Bradley Beal and Devin Booker won’t both miss the rest of the season. Gordon fits the exact profile we want and is now +3000 which is a nice wager to add to our portfolio. My final bet is a little longer shot that will have to score more points but is a big part of a team that is pace to be a top-three seed in the Western Conference. Naz Reid is +3400 and higher to win this award. Generally, this goes to a “sparkplug” guard that scores points off the bench for a top 3 seed. Reid does fit that profile but will be a key to Minnesota’s success and have enough highlight plays to earn votes. Let’s add him too.
Bets
0.5U on Norman Powell to win the 2023-24 6th Man of the Year Award (+2000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
0.5U on Eric Gordon to win the 2023-24 6th Man of the Year Award (+3000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
0.5U on Naz Reid to win the 2023-24 6th Man of the Year Award (+3000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
