Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s officially NBA best ball season! Last month, my top 200 ranks for both Underdog and DraftKings dropped for free on FTN Fantasy and, just like last season, they will remain free throughout the lead-up to opening night Oct. 24. Make sure you check back into that rankings list frequently, as I expect to make (at the very least) weekly updates.
In this weekly article, I will discuss any developing trends, ADP shifts and strategies that I’m using in my own drafts. I will cover both sites offering NBA best ball tournaments and we’ll subsidize these articles with livestreams every Friday leading up to the NBA season. You can check out last week’s stream here, where we participated in a draft on both sites.
Draft season is the best season, so saddle up at Underdog Fantasy and if you’re a first-time depositor you can get a 100% deposit match bonus up to $100 with promo code FTN!
Oct. 3 Update
Last week I mentioned that we were in the “calm before the storm” portion of the preseason, a natural thing to say when media day was less than a week away with training camps to follow. But as we sit here today, none of us could have expected just how different the league (specifically the Eastern Conference) would look when we reconvened for our next best ball discussion. This week, we’re going to dive into each move and injury reported since we last met and talk about the implications of said news on our best ball strategy.
Damian Lillard Trade
The biggest news of the week was the end of the Damian Lillard trade saga. No, he’s not in his declared desired destination in South Beach, but by all accounts, Dame is fully bought in on his new digs in Milwaukee. Here’s the full summary of last week’s biggest move.
We’ll get to Jrue Holiday in a moment, but first let’s discuss the best ball implications for Milwaukee and Phoenix. With the uncertainty surrounding Lillard’s availability now in the rearview, he’s jumped up several spots in both sets of ranks. While I’ve seen him go as high as fifth overall in some drafts since the trade, I still have him behind some other elite guards like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton and Stephen Curry. I get it — Dame is coming off his best season statistically, averaging 32/5/7 across his 58 appearances last year. He’s in a much better situation from a winning standpoint, but I’m confident we see his overall statistical upside drop off a touch this year. Lillard has never had to share the floor with a high-usage tandem like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton (not to mention former All-Star Brook Lopez is also in this Bucks starting unit). Lillard is still in the top 13 overall for me on both sites, but that’s a bit lower than the field has been since the trade. At the moment I’m still not getting a ton of Lillard shares in drafts, the hype surrounding the trade news has now pushed his ADP higher than I would like. If Lillard is your guy in the first round, by all means go get your guy. I will still end up under the field by the time opening night rolls around if his ADP trends continue this way.
While I don’t consider Dame showing up to be a knock to Giannis and his fantasy upside, I do view Lillard’s arrival as a hit to Khris Middleton’s best ball value. The former All-Star was subsequently dropped a number of spots in both sets of rankings. He’s still perfectly viable if he falls to you as I think he bounces back from the injury-riddled campaign of last season but is no longer the priority I saw him as before the blockbuster trade. Grayson Allen was also sent out in this deal, opening a starting spot for (probably) Pat Connaughton or Malik Beasley. If you want to take a 16th-round shot on either guy, be my guest. Neither of them excites me too much as a fifth starter with the three usage monsters they’ll be sharing the court with.
The Suns swapped Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkic. They also added Grayson Allen, Nassir Little and Keon Johnson. Allen and Little will likely play much more important roles from a real hoops standpoint for this Phoenix team than a fantasy one and I don’t think Johnson will factor into the Suns plans to a point where he’s relevant in either. Nurkic on the other hand got a slight upgrade from a best ball standpoint. He was always going to be a question mark in my eyes while he remained in Portland given the direction of their club. Now in a situation on a team with championship aspirations, I’ve got a bit more confidence in Nurkic as a mid-to-late round pick at “big” on Underdog and “center” on DraftKings. I’m still not going crazy with Nurkic exposure, but my ownership has now gone from “none” to “some.”
Jrue Holiday Trade
One thing we knew for sure after the Lillard news was that Jrue Holiday wouldn’t remain in Portland for long. Turned out he was flipped to a contender even quicker than some anticipated, with Woj setting off another bomb just before NFL Week 4 kicked off Sunday.
The market was reportedly (and unsurprisingly) hot for Holiday as soon as Milwaukee shipped him out and the Celtics were aggressive enough to win the bidding war before training camp began. We’ll start with the Boston side of things. Holiday’s fantasy value takes a hit in his new digs. While he was already a part of a Bucks starting group that contained high usage players like Antetokounmpo and Middleton, he was really the only viable point guard on the Bucks roster with Jevon Carter now in Chicago. Now he joins a top-heavy Boston rotation and will likely be the fourth option in the Celtics starting group behind Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis. Boston also has Derrick White and even Payton Pritchard as acceptable point guards in their backcourt. Holiday is not a “do-not-draft” asset or anything that dramatic now that he’s in Boston, but you’ll notice a dip in his ranking on both sites in today’s update. I’ll be looking for his ADP to drop a little further before investing in more shares. His arrival also dings the fantasy value of Derrick White, who is now quite clearly the secondary option when it comes to this backcourt after the team exchanged oft-injured Malcolm Brogdon (who was also reportedly discontent after the team tried to trade him earlier in the offseason) for Holiday.
With Robert Williams now on the West Coast, Kristaps Porzingis does get a slight increase on both sites. The frontcourt rotation now consists of Porzingis, veteran Al Horford and Luke Kornet. Wenyen Gabriel was also signed to a training camp deal in the wake of the trade, but he (if he makes the final roster) and Kornet aren’t nearly the threat to playing time that the Timelord was to Porzingis.
Let’s finally shift this to the Portland side of things. With Lillard out of town and Holiday never putting on the jersey, our faith in the seas parting for Scoot Henderson to step in as the alpha on this team has paid off. Scoot did get a slight rankings bump on both sites, but we were already higher than the field in that regard and now they’re having to play catch up. He was already one of my most-rostered players on both sites and I still view him as a value where he’s being drafted. Malcolm Brogdon may remain with the Blazers to start the season, but I expect (if he can stay healthy, which is a chore for him historically) that they move him on to a contending side at some point before February’s trade deadline. He remains a late round option with upside on both sites.
Ayton’s arrival in Portland is big for his fantasy value. He also gets a notable boost up the ranks on both sites now that he’s out of Phoenix. I’m not going to sit here and tell you I have zero concerns about Ayton’s chances to be a leader on a championship winning team or that he’s moved past all of the immaturity displayed at times during his Suns tenure. But I am confident in saying that the hate has gone too far on him from a fantasy perspective. Ayton is a career 17/10 player that shoots 60% from the field. He’s also moving from a starting unit with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to one with Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant. His statistical upside in his new situation is elevated from what it was a week ago and I’ve been getting more Ayton shares over the last week. Portland is reportedly planning on keeping Williams as Ayton’s backup, but I’m not surprised if they end up moving on from him as well before the deadline. They’re not going to trot both centers out together, so I’m treating this as a lateral move for Williams’ fantasy value at best and wouldn’t argue with someone of the mind that it’s a negative outcome for the sixth-year man out of Texas A&M.
Lillard’s departure also boosts the floor of options like Grant, Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. All three are a part of Portland’s plans as they begin their rebuild. They’re off to a great start so far after the moves made in the last week.
Kai Jones News
Kai Jones had some eyebrow raising Instagram live sessions last week that brought up concerns about his mental health headed into training camp. As Shams reported, he will miss training camp and be away from the team indefinitely. We’re of course all hoping for things to turn out well for the young forward. While Jones remains away from the Hornets it further solidifies the stranglehold that Mark Williams and Nick Richards have on the center position in Charlotte, while the team has more than enough options on the wing (as Jones had played some four at times last season).
Reggie Bullock Buyout, Signs with Houston
San Antonio, who will still have to cut a player by the end of camp (likely Charles Bediako), bought out the veteran sharpshooter last week. Tuesday morning, Reggie Bullock signed with Houston.
If anything, Bullock’s arrival in H-Town is a slight knock to the late round value of Dillon Brooks, but not enough to take me off Brooks where he’s being drafted or take any shots on Bullock as a late round flyer. Bullock will likely compete with Jae’Sean Tate for backup minutes behind the wing tandem of Brooks and Jalen Green.
Draymond Green Ankle Injury
Draymond Green reportedly has an ankle injury that could sideline him from anywhere 3-6 weeks. The latter timeline would have him missing the first few games to start the season. As you can see in the media day clip above, he’s got a positive outlook on his prognosis. If Green were to miss the first few games of the season, we could see Chris Paul step into the starting lineup with coach Steve Kerr sliding Andrew Wiggins to the four. We could also see one of the young guys like Jonathan Kuminga join the starting group. I’m already a fan of taking some late round shots on Kuminga. If I draft a guy like Miles Bridges at forward, who will miss ten games to start the season due to suspension, Kuminga becomes an even more interesting late round flyer on those rosters given the chance he could be a usable best ball asset for the first week or two. Again, this is a season-long format so we aren’t going crazy with our Kuminga interest, but it is some news we can use to “break ties” at the end of drafts when we’re considering our high-upside picks.
Cameron Payne Signs with Bucks
Not a ton of relevance for best ball on this move but wanted to include it all the same. The only case for drafting Cameron Payne in best ball is a last-round flyer with the thought that Payne would step into a starting role if Lillard was inactive for an extended period of time for whatever reason.
Daniel Gafford Elbow Injury
The Wizards starting center could potentially miss some time to start the regular season, but it doesn’t appear to be a serious or long-term issue. Mike Muscala, Taj Gibson and even Danilo Gallinari are all candidates to pick up the slack if Daniel Gafford has to miss the first couple games of the season. I have no interest in that trio from a best ball standpoint, I’m more focused on monitoring Gafford’s recovery and keeping my eyes peeled for news of any setbacks during training camp.
James Harden Absent at Media Day
The next chapter of the James Harden/Daryl Morey saga took place Monday as the former league MVP remains away from the team. This came on the heels of a promotional video from a party he threw in Houston recently that featured signs stating what Harden said in China a few weeks ago, “Daryl Morey is a liar.”
If you weren’t avoiding Harden shares in your drafts before this, I’d advise you to start doing so now. While I think the likely outcome is that Harden does suit up somewhere else this season, this could very well drag out to the trade deadline in February. That timeline would mean Harden shares giving you zeroes until the “regular season” portion of these best ball tournaments are over. Harden took precipitous drops in both sets of rankings this week. You’ll also see upgrades for guys like Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Kelly Oubre and De’Anthony Melton.
Update: Naturally, three minutes after I submitted this strategy article and rankings updates, Woj reported that James Harden is reporting to camp as soon as Tuesday. Harden’s rank is still lower this week than I had him last, but not nearly as low as I had him before that news. We saw Harden wiggle (or maybe jiggle is the more apt term) his way out of Houston with a preseason tantrum a few years ago. I’m not surprised if he picks up an “injury” at some point this week and milks that as a way to sit out while still getting paid. Because it’s fairly clear the only reason he’s capitulating and showing up to camp is to avoid the mounting fines that would come from remaining absent.
Isaiah Livers Ankle Injury
Not super pertinent to our drafts, but I wanted to include everything since we last met, so here you go. Isaiah Livers will likely miss 2-4 weeks of regular season play and while Livers isn’t exactly a threat to the bigger names on this roster, that would boost the minutes floor of Bojan Bogdanovic and Ausar Thompson to begin the year.
Buddy Hield Rumors, Pacers Camp Intel
Over the last week, the word out of Indiana was that contract extension talks between the club and Buddy Hield had broken down and that the two agreed to look for trade partners. Now, as camp arrives, the prevailing sentiment appears to be that the Pacers may have Hield to start the season and he’s open to a slightly different role (off the bench) with respect to the current direction of the franchise. Well, right before this article was sent to our editors, we got this update out of Pacers camp.
Of course, what stands out here is Bennedict Mathurin in place of Hield. Bruce Brown is also occupying a spot in this first five to open camp, while Obi Toppin appears to have a leg up on eighth overall pick Jarace Walker at the four spot. I’m still a fan of Walker where you can get him in drafts, as I think he beats out Toppin as the season progresses (and maybe even by opening night). We’ll keep an eye on the Pacers and the 29 other teams leading up to the season’s start in three weeks, but this is an interesting first glance into what coach Rick Carlisle is thinking as camp opens. The latest ranks updates reflect my current temperature on these players given the news.
My Top 10 Most Drafted Players
10/3/23
With each strategy article I will give an update on who my top 10 exposures are on both sites. On DraftKings, I haven’t figured out how to view my best ball exposures on web quite yet (if you know, holler at me) but we can view them on the mobile app. Here’s where things stand for me on both platforms as of today.
Underdog
Mark Williams
Mike Conley
Jarace Walker
Zion Williamson
Scoot Henderson
Devin Vassell
Kawhi Leonard
Ja Morant
Amen Thompson
Andrew Wiggins
DraftKings
Amen Thompson
Jarace Walker
Miles Bridges
Scoot Henderson
Mark Williams
Alperen Sengun
Anthony Davis
Darius Garland
Josh Giddey
Cam Thomas
Next Week
We’ll check in on all of the news, rumors and updates that come from NBA training camps that opened Tuesday. We’ll also have some preseason games to analyze and help inform us further as opening night draws closer. I expect my ownership to continue to shift dramatically on DraftKings as I’m working to catch up to the number of drafts I’ve completed there compared to Underdog.
As always, don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter (X) @KawhisenbergDFS or in the FTN Discord channel with questions about best ball and make sure to stop by the livestream this Friday at 1 p.m. ET where I’ll be drafting with my friend Mike Zakarian.
