The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/9)


Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.



Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Blue Jays (+104), Yankees (-122)
Total: 8.5 runs
José Berríos (R) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (L)

Three things to know

  • The Yankees middling offense needs a refresh – their .179 ISO and 26.0% whiff rate is ugly over the last month.
  • The Jays are crushing the baseball — they’ve climbed to third in team wOBA (.337) over the same time frame.
  • Can Nestor Cortes Jr. keep dominating as a soft-tossing lefty?

Best bets: The Jays need every game, and they are slamming the Yankees in this series.

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Royals (+102), Orioles (-120)
Total: 8.5 runs
Carlos Hernández (R) vs. John Means (L)

Three things to know

  • The Orioles rank in the bottom 10 in the league with a 25.0% strikeout rate and .313 wOBA.
  • The Royals rank near the bottom of the league with a .142 ISO over that same time frame.
  • Camden Yards ranks in the top five in home run factor and park factor.

Best bets: Wednesday returned back to normal and I would expect more runs on the board.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Nationals (+194), Braves (-235)
Total: 9.5 runs
Erick Fedde (R) vs. Huascar Ynoa (R)

Three things to know

  • The Braves have been a top-five offense in the last month — can they keep it up?
  • The Nats don’t whiff much (21.2% strikeout rate), and their offense has picked it up lately (.334 wOBA).
  • Huascar Ynoa has picked up where he left off, striking out nearly a batter per inning with a 0.91 WHIP in the last month.

Best bets: Expect the Braves to keep rolling and take them in a F3/F5 bet.

(Join this FREE contest at DraftKings Sportsbook to earn your share of $20,000.)

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Rockies (+154), Phillies (-184)
Total: 8.0 runs
Antonio Senzatela (R) vs. Ranger Suárez (L)

Three things to know

  • The Phillies have been quite mediocre lately, posting a .307 wOBA in the last month.
  • The Rockies have also crashed and burned lately, logging a .306 wOBA as well.
  • Antonio Senzatela has allowed only 0.68 HR/9 this year.

Best bets: An over/under of even eight runs seems aggressive with how these teams are swinging the bat. Take the UNDER.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

Find the Best MLB Prop Bets

Find the best prices for your favorite props each day here with the FTN Prop Shop.

Sports Betting Tools

Looking for free betting tools to help you win? Try the FTN Parlay Calculator and FTN Prop Shop.

Previous NFL long-shot parlay picks for Week 1 Next MLB Prop Tracker (September 9)