Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Each day, we are going to give you a quick preview of the day’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies
Taylor Widener vs. Aaron Nola
Diamondbacks +225, Phillies -245
Total: 8.5
Three things to know
- The offenses here are pretty even. Philly owns a 94 wRC+ vs. RHP and the D-backs are at 91.
- Aaron Nola has a 4.33 ERA, but just a 3.47 xFIP. He’s been unlucky.
- Widener is the opposite. He has a 4.34 ERA, but his xFIP is 5.22. He’s been extremely lucky not to have a worse ERA.
Best bet: The Phillies are massive favorites here and deserve to be, but is +225 too much on the Diamondbacks? I think it is. The Phillies implied probability on a -245 line is 71% win rate in our probability odds calculator. I think that’s a little too high. My fair value line is closer to -200 for them, which means I give the D-backs about a 33% to win this game. That means the D-backs should be about +205 today. At +245 the value is with them, even if they are twice as likely to lose than win.
New York Yankees @ Oakland Athletics
Gerrit Cole @ Sean Manaea
Yanks -148, Athletics +143
Total: 8
Three things to know
- The Yankees have won 12 straight games.
- Oakland is on a five-game losing streak.
- Yankees 116 wRC+ vs. LHP is second best in MLB.
Best bet: The Yankees have won 12 straight, have their ace on the mound, and are facing a pitcher with their preferred split. All signs point to NY winning this game and frankly -148 feels a bit low for them, even on the road.
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St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
J.A. Happ vs. Dillon Peters
Cardinals -145, Pirates +138
Total: 8.5/9
Three things to know
- The Pirates current lineup owns just a 74 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2021, the lowest in MLB.
- The Cardinals are slightly above league average at a 101 wRC+ vs. LHP.
- Neither pitcher is good. Happ has an ERA close to 6 this year and Peters in 33 MLB appearances has a 5.56 lifetime ERA.
Best bet: The pitching is bad on both sides here, but the hitting is only good on one. The Cardinals are not great, but they are slightly above league average. The Pirates are literally the worst offense in the league vs. LHP right now, so that is where the advantage comes in. I actually think the Cardinals at -145 is a little bit light, so that is the side of the game I would want to be on.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Shane McClanahan vs. Matt Harvey
Rays -217, Orioles +196
Total: 10
Three things to know
- Matt Harvey is getting rocked this year. His BB/9 and HR/9 are up. His xFIP is a tad under 5, so he’s been unlucky, but even an xFIP around 5 isn’t good.
- The rookie McClanahan has been very good. His xFIP is 3.20 is 19 appearances, although the Orioles own a 107 vs. LHP which is very solid.
- Tampa crushes RHP. They own the second-highest wRC+ at 115.
Best bet: The Rays are a deserving -217 favorite. No value exists there as it is about right for their probability to win this game. Where I think we can find a little value is in the first 5 (F5) number. Rays -1 is only slightly juiced at -120. That’s my preferred bet here.
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Eduardo Rodríguez vs. Logan Allen
Red Sox -167, Guardians +160
Total: 9
Three things to know
- Allen hasn’t made it through five innings in any of his last five starts, allowed at least 3 runs each time.
- Rodriguez had a disastrous May with an ERA over 7.00, but it has been in the 4.00 range since.
- Boston is slightly above average vs. LHP with a 104 wRC+. The Guardians are well below with the fifth lowest wRC+ vs. LHP.
Best bet: The Red Sox as only a -167 favorite here feels disrespectful. They have an advantage in pitching and I think it’s bigger than the numbers suggest. They have a clear advantage in hitting as well. The line implies a 62% chance of winning, which is not egregious, but feels does feel a little too low given the matchup.
Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins
Wade Miley vs. Zach Thompson
Reds -141, Marlins +130
Total: 8
Three things to know
- The 2.88 ERA is very lucky for Wade Miley. He doesn’t suck, but that xFIP is a little over 4, meaning he’s been lucky.
- Miami owns just a 90 wRC+ vs. LHP, so this is a good matchup for Miley.
- Thompson has a sub-3 ERA, but that’s a mirage. His BABIP is a ridiculously low .239 and his xFIP is closer to four and a half. That will revert to the mean soon
Best bet: Both of these pitchers are hittable. They own sub 3 ERAs and xFIPs over 4. If regression finally catches up, this game could sail over the total. 8 feels a little too low, so that’s where I want to have my money.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Steven Matz vs. Matt Manning
Blue Jays -161, Tigers +150
Total: 9.5
Three things to know
- Detroit is sneaky good vs. LHP with a 108 wRC+.
- Manning has a .316 BABIP, which is a tad high and why his xFIP is lower than his ERA.
- Matz is not a stud, but he’s good. He’s having his career-best year in xFIP.
Best bet: Toronto owns the third-best wRC+ vs. RHP at 114. Matz does not have a soft matchup either though. I think I prefer the total here to the moneyline. The moneyline is about where it should be, but the Detroit bats should get some runs on Matz, and Toronto should crush Manning. The over is the best play for value.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Paolo Espino vs. Rich Hill
Nationals +185, Mets -204
Total: 9
Three things to know
- The Nats own a 104 wRC+ vs. LHP.
- The Mets own just an 89 wRC+ vs. RHP.
- Rich Hill at best goes 5 innings. He’s been giving up a couple runs doing it as well.
Best bet: The best bet here is taking a flier on the Nationals as the dog. Rich Hill is not as dominant as he once was, and the Nationals have the advantage with their bats vs. the Mets. At this point of his career, Hill is slightly better than Espino, but not twice as good as the moneyline implies. Give me the +185 on the Nationals here who have the hitting advantage. This game should be way closer than a -200/+185 ML.
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Kevin Gausman vs. Max Fried
Giants +105, Braves -115
Total: 8
Three things to know
- Both pitchers are very good. Gausman does have an xFIP about a run higher than his 2.47 ERA, but even that is still very respectable.
- The Giants current lineup has a 11 wRC+ vs. LHP, fourth best in MLB.
- Atlanta is league average with a 101 wRC+.
Best bet: Why are the Giants so disrespected? We ran with them vs. the Mets for a profitable series and as dogs I have to like them again here. They project better offensively, and the pitching is even at worst and a slight advantage for the Giants at best. No reason they should be dogs at plus money here.
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Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Jake Odorizzi vs. Glenn Otto
Astros -200, Rangers +183
Total: 9.5
Three things to know
- Otto was a key piece in the Joey Gallo deal. He has big strikeout stuff in the minors — this will be his first MLB start at age 25.
- Odorizzi at his best is still only about league average. He has not been great the last two months.
- The big advantage here is with the bats. Houston leads the league with a 120 wRC+ vs. RHP and Texas is ranked 29th with a 78.
Best bet: I am not a Jake Odorizzi fan, but he does draw a weak matchup here. The Astros bats should save him today even though I do like the youngster Texas is throwing. -200 actually feels a bit light and this is one leg I prefer using as part of a parlay with another big favorite to get an even or plus money payout.
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Keegan Thompson vs. Dallas Keuchel
Cubs +195, White Sox -208
Total: 9
Three things to know
- The White Sox own a 107 wRC+ vs. RHP this year.
- The current Cubs own just an 88 wRC+ vs. LHP.
- Thompson is an opener. I doubt he makes it three innings. This will be a heavy load of bullpen arms from the Cubs.
Best bet: The White Sox are deserving big favorites here. -208 is actually a little less than I would have expected. Not by a wide margin, but they definitely have some value on their side. According to our parlay calculator, you can get +125 linking them and the Astros together.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
Eric Lauer vs. Andrew Albers
Brewers -130, Twins +120
Total: 9.5
Three things to know
- Neither team is great vs. LHP. Milwaukee current lineup owns a league average 100 wRC+, and the Twins are below average at 91.
- In his last seven starts. Lauer has gone just shy of 5 innings and given up just 9 total runs over 34 innings.
- Spot start for the 35-year-old journeyman Albers. He was solid going 4 IP last time out, but he’s never been a good MLB pitcher.
Best bet: Give me the under here. It’s not because I have tons of faith in either starter, but more because I lack faith in both lineups. If these teams get to 10, I will tip my cap to them, but I just do not see how that happens here
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
Kris Bubic vs. Logan Gilbert
Royals +162, Mariners -165
Total: 8.5
Three things to know
- Seattle owns just a 90 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2021.
- The Royals own just an 88 wRC+ vs. RHP.
- Neither pitcher is particularly good here, but Logan Gilbert is better than his surface numbers. His ERA is over 5, but the xFIP is under 4.
Best bet: This number feels about right. Gilbert is the better of the two pitchers by a slight margin and the offense backing him up is better as well, so the Mariners should win this game. They are -165 favorites, which is pretty spot on. If I had to bet this game, give me the under on the 8.5 total with two dreadful offenses facing off.
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San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Angels
Joe Musgrove vs. TBD
Padres -208, Angels +175
It’s tough to go any deeper here until we get a listed pitcher for the Angels. Make sure to hop into Discord if you have any questions about it once the pitcher is announced.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Freeland vs. TBD
Rockies +215, Dodgers -227
The Dodgers are favored here and probably deserve to be. Is it too many runs? Is it too big a moneyline? We will have to see who is starting, but I would expect any of the Dodgers pitchers to be -200 or shorter odds so it’s not a bad line, just tough to bet without all the information available yet.
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