The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/27)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece!

All odds/totals/bets are courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Marlins (-146), Orioles (+124)
Total: 9.0 runs
Sandy Alcantara (R) vs. Spenser Watkins (R)

Three Things to Know

• How will Sandy Alcantara perform coming off of the Injury List? I tend to tread cautiously here.
• Watkins’ 1.65 ERA seems a bit unsustainable, as evidenced by a 4.01 FIP. He needs to cut down on the free passes (12.3%).
• These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?

Best bets: I’d take the over here. I don’t expect Alcantara to go incredibly deep and regression is coming for Watkins.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Nationals (+108), Phillies (-126)
Total: 10.5 runs
Erick Fedde (R) vs. Matt Moore (L)

Three things to know

• Matt Moore has been bombed by the long ball, allowing almost 2 homers per nine.
• Erick Fedde has been up and down this season. Which version will show up?
• These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?

Best bets: Let’s make it two overs in a row here. I love some home run props here too, like Trea Turner.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown

Brewers (-130), Pirates (+110)
Total: 8.5 runs
Brett Anderson (L) vs. Tyler Anderson (L)

Three things to know

• Tyler Anderson has been a nice find for the Pirates – and his 5.8% walk rate has helped with that.
• Like Tyler Anderson, Brett Anderson has limited walks (6.9%) and relies heavily on ground-balls (56.3%).
• The Pirates have been surging at the dish – their .337 wOBA mark over the last 14 days ranks ninth.

Best bets: I actually am going with the Buccos here – F3/F5 bets are both great values.

St Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Indians betting breakdown

Cardinals (-116), Indians (-102)
Total: 9.0 run
Adam Wainwright (R) vs. Cal Quantrill (R)

Three things to know

• Are the Cardinals playing themselves back into the NL Central race? Their .342 WOBA mark ranks them sixth.
• Without Adam Wainwright, this pitching staff is a trainwreck. His 3.94 FIP over 118.2 IP leads the team.
• Cleveland has been bad offensively this year, and really bad as of late – they are second-worst in team WOBA (.280).

Best bets: I like the Cardinals on the moneyline – their recent offensive surge and with Wainwright on the mound gives me all the feels.

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Yankees (+134), Rays (-158)
Total: 7.5 runs
Jordan Montgomery (L) vs. Shane McClanahan (L)

Three things to know

• Jordan Montgomery has been pretty blah this season – but perhaps better things are to come. He’s posted a 2.31 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the last two weeks.
• Shane McClanahan needs to work deeper into games to be viable. He whiffs plenty (seven in his last start), but he went only five frames.
• Tampa has recorded nearly a 30% K Rate against lefties this year.

Best bets: With Tampa’s southpaw struggles and the game in Tampa, take the under.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Blue Jays (-134), Red Sox (+114)
Total: 11.0 runs
Robbie Ray (L) vs. Garrett Richards (R)

Three things to know

• There were 18 hits and seven runs in the first 4.5 innings yesterday, but some good pitching kept the over from hitting.
• Robbie Ray‘s surge in first-pitch strike percentage has brought him back tobeing a fantasy ace.
• Garrett Richards? Not so much. He owns a 5.91 ERA in the last month and the Ks have slowed significantly.

Best bets: This time, I am betting on the Jays. I know the Red Sox offense is good, but Ray has been other-worldly.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown

Reds (+160), Cubs (-190)
Total: 10.5 runs
Vladimir Gutierrez (R) vs. Adbert Alzolay (R)

Three things to know

• Adbert Alzolay has been a primarily slider pitcher, but it’s been nasty, leading to a healthy 25.3% strikeout rate.
• Vladimir Gutierrez owners, look away – he sports a double-digit walk rate and the Ks have dropped to 15.5%.
• The Cubs were in the bottom five in team wOBA, but have risen to 21st in the last few weeks.

Best bets: The Cubs plus a F3/F5 and homer prop bet. Gutierrez has been flirting with danger too much.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+120), Rangers (-142)
Total: 8.5 runs
Taylor Widener (R) vs. Dane Dunning (R)

Three things to know

• Dane Dunning was a decent consolation prize in the Lance Lynn trade – he’s struck out over a batter an inning in 83.2 frames.
• The Rangers offense is awful – they rank dead last in team WOBA the last two weeks (.215) with a 26.1% strikeout rate.
• Taylor Widener has been sneaky good with a 22.8% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate this year.

Best bets: Texas cannot hit – take a F3/F5 stab at the DBacks.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown

Tigers (+166), Twins (-198)
Total: 9.0 runs
Tyler Alexander (L) vs. Kenta Maeda (R)

Three things to know

• Kenta Maeda has been quietly brilliant lately – he’s logged a 1.12 WHIP and 35 whiffs in 27.2 IP in the last month.
• Call it the trade rumors swirling, but the Twins have stunk at the dish – in the last two weeks, they are fourth-worst in wOBA.
• Detroit ranks 18th in team wOBA (.307) – that may not seem good, except for when you realize they were last after the first month of the year.

Best bets: I love a Maeda strikeout prop tonight – nab it if it’s closer to 6.5. 

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

White Sox (-158), Royals (+134)
Total: 9.5 runs
Dylan Cease (R) vs. Brad Keller (R)

Three things to know

• The season-long numbers may be ugly, but Brad Keller has been excellent recently – he’s whiffed 22 in his last three starts.
• Can the White Sox get things going? They rank 25th in team wOBA with a 24% strikeout rate over the last two weeks.
• Kansas City remains as a bottom third offense (.302 wOBA). This offense has definitely disappointed in 2021.

Best bets: Let’s get nuts – I am siding with the Royals tonight on the moneyline.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Rockies (+120), Angels (-142)
Total: 9.0 runs
Austin Gomber (L) vs. José Suarez (L)

Three things to know

• It pains my heart to see former Cardinal Austin Gomber be so good, but he is. He came off the IL to win and fire six solid innings.
• The Rockies struck out 10 times yesterday – can José Suarez duplicate Ohtani’s feat?
• Just imagine if the Angels were healthy – a lineup including Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon is terrifying.

Best bets: The over squeaked out yesterday. I like this again today, and an Angels moneyline bet is attractive as well.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Dodgers (-126), Giants (+108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Julio Urías (L) vs. Logan Webb (R)

Three things to know

• Did you know that Julio Urías is tied with Kyle Hendricks for the major league lead in wins (12)?
• The Giants cut down on whiffs versus lefties, but they don’t hit them very well either – and they have struggled recently at the plate with a 25.8% strikeout rate.
• Logan Webb is sneaky – he has logged a 3.54 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with over 9K/9 in 61 innings.

Best bets: I like the UNDER. No Mookie or Bellinger and the Giants don’t hit lefties.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Astros (-172), Mariners (+144)
Total: 8.0 runs
Lance McCullers Jr. (R) vs. Chris Flexen (R)

Three things to know

• In the last month, who’s been better than Chris Flexen? He owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
• The Astros offense jumped out for seven runs yesterday – but they have stunk lately with a .305 wOBA.
• Seattle strikes out too much – they are whiffing at a 28.5% clip recently.

Best bets: I’m going back to the Stros, and consider pairing a McCullers strikeout prop with something else.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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