NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece!
All odds/totals/bets are courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown
Marlins (-146), Orioles (+124)
Total: 9.0 runs
Sandy Alcantara (R) vs. Spenser Watkins (R)
Three Things to Know
- How will Sandy Alcantara perform coming off of the Injury List? I tend to tread cautiously here.
- Watkins’ 1.65 ERA seems a bit unsustainable, as evidenced by a 4.01 FIP. He needs to cut down on the free passes (12.3%).
- These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?
Best bets: I’d take the over here. I don’t expect Alcantara to go incredibly deep and regression is coming for Watkins.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown
Nationals (+108), Phillies (-126)
Total: 10.5 runs
Erick Fedde (R) vs. Matt Moore (L)
Three things to know
- Matt Moore has been bombed by the long ball, allowing almost 2 homers per nine.
- Erick Fedde has been up and down this season. Which version will show up?
- These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?
Best bets: Let’s make it two overs in a row here. I love some home run props here too, like Trea Turner.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown
Brewers (-130), Pirates (+110)
Total: 8.5 runs
Brett Anderson (L) vs. Tyler Anderson (L)
Three things to know
- Tyler Anderson has been a nice find for the Pirates – and his 5.8% walk rate has helped with that.
- Like Tyler Anderson, Brett Anderson has limited walks (6.9%) and relies heavily on ground-balls (56.3%).
- The Pirates have been surging at the dish – their .337 wOBA mark over the last 14 days ranks ninth.
Best bets: I actually am going with the Buccos here – F3/F5 bets are both great values.
St Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Indians betting breakdown
Cardinals (-116), Indians (-102)
Total: 9.0 run
Adam Wainwright (R) vs. Cal Quantrill (R)
Three things to know
- Are the Cardinals playing themselves back into the NL Central race? Their .342 WOBA mark ranks them sixth.
- Without Adam Wainwright, this pitching staff is a trainwreck. His 3.94 FIP over 118.2 IP leads the team.
- Cleveland has been bad offensively this year, and really bad as of late – they are second-worst in team WOBA (.280).
Best bets: I like the Cardinals on the moneyline – their recent offensive surge and with Wainwright on the mound gives me all the feels.
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown
Yankees (+134), Rays (-158)
Total: 7.5 runs
Jordan Montgomery (L) vs. Shane McClanahan (L)
Three things to know
- Jordan Montgomery has been pretty blah this season – but perhaps better things are to come. He’s posted a 2.31 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the last two weeks.
- Shane McClanahan needs to work deeper into games to be viable. He whiffs plenty (seven in his last start), but he went only five frames.
- Tampa has recorded nearly a 30% K Rate against lefties this year.
Best bets: With Tampa’s southpaw struggles and the game in Tampa, take the under.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown
Blue Jays (-134), Red Sox (+114)
Total: 11.0 runs
Robbie Ray (L) vs. Garrett Richards (R)
Three things to know
- There were 18 hits and seven runs in the first 4.5 innings yesterday, but some good pitching kept the over from hitting.
- Robbie Ray‘s surge in first-pitch strike percentage has brought him back tobeing a fantasy ace.
- Garrett Richards? Not so much. He owns a 5.91 ERA in the last month and the Ks have slowed significantly.
Best bets: This time, I am betting on the Jays. I know the Red Sox offense is good, but Ray has been other-worldly.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown
Reds (+160), Cubs (-190)
Total: 10.5 runs
Vladimir Gutierrez (R) vs. Adbert Alzolay (R)
Three things to know
- Adbert Alzolay has been a primarily slider pitcher, but it’s been nasty, leading to a healthy 25.3% strikeout rate.
- Vladimir Gutierrez owners, look away – he sports a double-digit walk rate and the Ks have dropped to 15.5%.
- The Cubs were in the bottom five in team wOBA, but have risen to 21st in the last few weeks.
Best bets: The Cubs plus a F3/F5 and homer prop bet. Gutierrez has been flirting with danger too much.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers betting breakdown
Diamondbacks (+120), Rangers (-142)
Total: 8.5 runs
Taylor Widener (R) vs. Dane Dunning (R)
Three things to know
- Dane Dunning was a decent consolation prize in the Lance Lynn trade – he’s struck out over a batter an inning in 83.2 frames.
- The Rangers offense is awful – they rank dead last in team WOBA the last two weeks (.215) with a 26.1% strikeout rate.
- Taylor Widener has been sneaky good with a 22.8% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate this year.
Best bets: Texas cannot hit – take a F3/F5 stab at the DBacks.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown
Tigers (+166), Twins (-198)
Total: 9.0 runs
Tyler Alexander (L) vs. Kenta Maeda (R)
Three things to know
- Kenta Maeda has been quietly brilliant lately – he’s logged a 1.12 WHIP and 35 whiffs in 27.2 IP in the last month.
- Call it the trade rumors swirling, but the Twins have stunk at the dish – in the last two weeks, they are fourth-worst in wOBA.
- Detroit ranks 18th in team wOBA (.307) – that may not seem good, except for when you realize they were last after the first month of the year.
Best bets: I love a Maeda strikeout prop tonight – nab it if it’s closer to 6.5.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown
White Sox (-158), Royals (+134)
Total: 9.5 runs
Dylan Cease (R) vs. Brad Keller (R)
Three things to know
- The season-long numbers may be ugly, but Brad Keller has been excellent recently – he’s whiffed 22 in his last three starts.
- Can the White Sox get things going? They rank 25th in team wOBA with a 24% strikeout rate over the last two weeks.
- Kansas City remains as a bottom third offense (.302 wOBA). This offense has definitely disappointed in 2021.
Best bets: Let’s get nuts – I am siding with the Royals tonight on the moneyline.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown
Rockies (+120), Angels (-142)
Total: 9.0 runs
Austin Gomber (L) vs. José Suarez (L)
Three things to know
- It pains my heart to see former Cardinal Austin Gomber be so good, but he is. He came off the IL to win and fire six solid innings.
- The Rockies struck out 10 times yesterday – can José Suarez duplicate Ohtani’s feat?
- Just imagine if the Angels were healthy – a lineup including Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon is terrifying.
Best bets: The over squeaked out yesterday. I like this again today, and an Angels moneyline bet is attractive as well.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown
Dodgers (-126), Giants (+108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Julio Urías (L) vs. Logan Webb (R)
Three things to know
- Did you know that Julio Urías is tied with Kyle Hendricks for the major league lead in wins (12)?
- The Giants cut down on whiffs versus lefties, but they don’t hit them very well either – and they have struggled recently at the plate with a 25.8% strikeout rate.
- Logan Webb is sneaky – he has logged a 3.54 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with over 9K/9 in 61 innings.
Best bets: I like the UNDER. No Mookie or Bellinger and the Giants don’t hit lefties.
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown
Astros (-172), Mariners (+144)
Total: 8.0 runs
Lance McCullers Jr. (R) vs. Chris Flexen (R)
Three things to know
- In the last month, who’s been better than Chris Flexen? He owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
- The Astros offense jumped out for seven runs yesterday – but they have stunk lately with a .305 wOBA.
- Seattle strikes out too much – they are whiffing at a 28.5% clip recently.
Best bets: I’m going back to the Stros, and consider pairing a McCullers strikeout prop with something else.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
Find the Best MLB Prop Bets
Find the best prices for your favorite props each day here with the FTN Prop Shop.
Sports Betting Tools
Looking for free betting tools to help you win? Try the FTN Parlay Calculator and FTN Prop Shop.
