Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Giants (+154), Nationals (-184)
Total: 7.5 runs
Anthony DeSclafani (R) vs. Max Scherzer (R)
While we expected the NL East to be a challenging division, one thing that has surprised me is that the Nats are in last place of the division. It’s a top-heavy lineup, and with Stephen Strasburg struggling to return to form, and Patrick Corbin being up-and-down, it’s been hard to find some consistency. The Giants have been very good offensively (.323 wOBA mark), but they whiff a ton — they are the seventh-worst team in baseball in team strikeout rate at 25.7%.
Best bets: The bet that sticks out to me is a strikeout prop here for Scherzer — he’s been incredible, and he currently sports the best strikeout rate of his career (36.2%).
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Astros (-102), Red Sox (-116)
Total: 9.0 runs
Zack Greinke (R) vs. Eduardo Rodríguez (L)
The Red Sox are hoping for a little bit better luck in the finale of this three-game set. Boston and Houston have met five times so far in June, and this series has been decidedly one-sided — the Astros have pounded Boston pitching for four wins, and this Red Sox offense has lost its teeth. They’ve scored a total of 11 runs over these five games, and that’s been their biggest issue. Thursday, they’ll try and right the ship against Greinke, and he may finally showing signs of slowing down — his 18.9% strikeout rate is the worst mark of his career.
Best bets: It’s hard going against the Astros, who have been so good at the plate recently. But, I think this turns into a run-scoring affair, so take a peek at the OVER.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
Rockies (+184), Marlins (-220)
Total: 7.5 runs
Chi Chi González (R) vs. Trevor Rogers (L)
With Jon Gray hitting the shelf, Chi Chi González (I have typed the last name of Rodriguez, the golfer, nearly every time here) has taken his place, and he has really struggled. This season, Gonzalez sports a 4.65 FIP thanks to an egregiously low 12.5% strikeout rate — pairing that to a 35.7% ground-ball rate leads to disaster. And while the Marlins are no offensive juggernaut themselves (.294 wOBA, 26.5% strikeout rate), the Marlins are obvious favorites.
Best bets: This one feels obvious — lock in a F5 Marlins and possible Marlins moneyline bet here.
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Yankees (-134), Twins (+114)
Total: 11.0 runs
Michael King (R) vs. J.A. Happ (L)
Are the real Yankees finally showing up offensively? Back-to-back impressive performances at the plate are giving hope that this team is finally starting to wake up the dish. Are they able to climb out of the basement of the division with a stronger offensive performance? The arm on the mound, J.A. Happ, may be more than willing to oblige. He’s been bombed for 26 earned runs over his last five starts, and that’s a recipe for disaster for the Twins, who are quickly falling out of relevance.
Best bets: This thing screams same game parlay over at FanDuel. A F5 Yankees bet, and while I would love to play the OVER, it’s a hefty total. I’m perusing some home run props, too.
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Blue Jays (-118), White Sox (-100)
Total: 8.5 runs
Hyun Jin Ryu (L) vs. Dallas Keuchel (L)
The White Sox impressive resume against southpaws will surely be put to the test — they send their own struggling left-handed pitcher to the mound, and they will face one of the best lefties in the game in Hyun Jin Ryu. The Sox have won 23 straight games against a left-handed starting pitcher and own a league-best .367 wOBA in this split. Keuchel owns an impressive 59.5% ground-ball rate this year, but he has to improve on a poor 12.7% strikeout rate on the season.
Best bets: I am flummoxed here. The White Sox have been money here, but this one is a bit of a challenge. The Jays are no slouch against lefties, either — at least put a small taste on a Blue Jays F5 bet.
Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics
Royals (+130), Athletics (-154)
Total: 8.0 runs
Mike Minor (L) vs. Frankie Montas (R)
It’s quite easy to pick out some of the top offenses in baseball, but what if I told you the Athletics yet again rank as one of the top teams in the league? They are fifth in team wOBA and wRC+, and they have been adept at limiting their strikeout rate with a 23.7% mark. While the Royals are hard to whiff (22.2%), they rank in the bottom of the league in nearly all of the same categories. What this likely boils down to is which version of Frankie Montas will we get — the control artist with the second-best swinging-strike rate of his career (12.0%), or the one belabored by home runs (1.50 per nine innings)?
Best bets: With Mike Minor still struggling, there’s a lot to like with the Athletics here. Minor has been plagued by homers and the Athletics sport plenty of pop (seventh-best team ISO at .174). Place a bet on a F5 or moneyline bet here on the A’s.
