Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We’re back again for this week’s fantasy baseball Double Dip — highlighting pitchers making two starts in a week. Some of the plays may be obvious — you don’t need me telling you that when Jacob deGrom is starting twice, a 1,000-word soliloquy highlighting why it’s a good idea to start him. You just do it.
But volume is key, especially two-start-pitcher volume. This column aims to identify all the two start hurlers, the ones that are no-brainers, the ones that are avoids, and most importantly, focus on the tough-to-call decisions.
Each week, I’ll do my best to highlight some of those tricky arms, and what could come your way.
All of the two-steppers (37)
- Madison Bumgarner, AZ (at LAD, at COL)
- Max Fried, ATL (vs NYM, vs PIT)
- Charlie Morton, ATL (vs NYM, vs PIT)
- Matt Harvey, BAL (vs TB, at WAS)
- Eduardo Rodríguez, BOS (at TOR, at PHI)
- Adbert Alzolay, CHC (vs WAS, at STL)
- Zach Davies, CHC (vs WAS, at STL)
- Sonny Gray, CIN (vs SF, vs MIL)
- Luis Castillo, CIN (vs SF, vs MIL)
- Sam Hentges, CLE (at LAA, vs MIN)
- Dallas Keuchel, CHW (at MIN, at NYY)
- Casey Mize, DET (at SEA, at KC)
- José Urquidy, HOU (at OAK, at TEX)
- Danny Duffy, KC (vs MIL, vs DET)
- Alex Cobb, LAA (vs CLE, vs OAK)
- Andrew Heaney, LAA (vs CLE, vs OAK)
- Walker Buehler, LAD (vs AZ, at SF)
- Julio Urías, LAD (vs AZ, at SF)
- Cody Poteet, MIA (at PHI, vs NYM)
- J.A. Happ, MIN (vs CWS, at CLE)
- Michael Pineda, MIN (vs CWS, at CLE)
- Taijuan Walker, NYM (at ATL, at MIA)
- Gerrit Cole, NYY (at TEX, vs CWS)
- Jameson Taillon, NYY (at TEX, vs CWS)
- James Kaprielian, OAK (vs HOU, at LAA)
- Zack Wheeler, PHI (vs MIA, vs BOS)
- JT Brubaker, PIT (at STL, at ATL)
- Yu Darvish, SD (vs COL, vs SEA)
- Justin Dunn, SEA (vs DET, at SD)
- Logan Webb, SF (at CIN, vs LAD)
- Anthony DeSclafani, SF (at CIN, vs LAD)
- Ryan Yarbrough, TB (at BAL, at TOR)
- Jordan Lyles, TEX (vs NYY, vs HOU)
- Mike Foltynewicz, TEX (vs NYY, vs HOU)
- Hyun Jin Ryu, TOR (vs BOS, vs TB)
- Jon Lester, WAS (at CHC, vs BAL)
- Patrick Corbin, WAS (at CHC, vs BAL)
The no-brainers (18)
This group should definitely be in your starting lineup — whether it’s due to matchup or just sheer brilliance, don’t overthink this one. This is a larger group than regular, mostly due to excellent matchups.
- Max Fried, ATL (vs NYM, vs PIT)
- Charlie Morton, ATL (vs NYM, vs PIT)
- Eduardo Rodríguez, BOS (at TOR, at PHI)
- Adbert Alzolay, CHC (vs WAS, at STL)
- Sonny Gray, CIN (vs SF, vs MIL)
- José Urquidy, HOU (at OAK, at TEX)
- Danny Duffy, KC (vs MIL, vs DET)
- Walker Buehler, LAD (vs AZ, at SF)
- Julio Urías, LAD (vs AZ, at SF)
- J.A. Happ, MIN (vs CWS, at CLE)
- Michael Pineda, MIN (vs CWS, at CLE)
- Taijuan Walker, NYM (at ATL, at MIA)
- Gerrit Cole, NYY (at TEX, vs CWS)
- Jameson Taillon, NYY (at TEX, vs CWS)
- Zack Wheeler, PHI (vs MIA, vs BOS)
- JT Brubaker, PIT (at STL, at ATL)
- Yu Darvish, SD (vs COL, vs SEA)
- Hyun Jin Ryu, TOR (vs BOS, vs TB)
The run-and-hides (6)
This group should only be started out of pure desperation — the volume is nice, and it definitely could end up working out for you, but starting these hurlers is a real gamble.
- Matt Harvey, BAL (vs TB, at WAS)
- Luis Castillo, CIN (vs SF, vs MIL): As a Castilo truther, this pains me to put him on this list. But in good conscience, I cannot start him until he figures things out. He’s absolutely trashing my ratios overall.
- Cody Poteet, MIA (at PHI, vs NYM)
- Ryan Yarbrough, TB (at BAL, at TOR)
- Jordan Lyles, TEX (vs NYY, vs HOU)
- Mike Foltynewicz, TEX (vs NYY, vs HOU)
The meat and potatoes (13)
This group is one that takes a bit more thinking — the volume is nice, but the matchup could be tricky. Is it worth taking the risk on a questionable start for what could be some juicy fantasy goodness? Let’s dig in and find out.
And since they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I am going to use a similar rating scale that Clay Link and Todd Zola do over at Rotowire — if I was playing in five fantasy baseball leagues, how many would I feel comfortable starting this hurler? Using that as our barometer, we should be able to appropriately deem the risk and reward that’s available if you so choose to start this arm. Keep in mind — your league and team context are always key. I’m using a 12-team NFBC Online Championship format as my primary backdrop.
- Madison Bumgarner, AZ (at LAD, at COL, 100%) — FOUR LEAGUES OUT OF FIVE: Most likely, you are starting Bumgarner nearly everywhere. He has been out of this world recently, but if you wanted two scarier matchups this week, these are it.
- Zach Davies, CHC (vs WAS, at STL, 27%) — THREE: Of course, Davies picks thing up last start. And maybe, Davies simply righted the ship he faces the horrendous Cleveland Indians offense. I am buying back here, but carefully.
- Sam Hentges, CLE (at LAA, vs. MIN, 1%) — THREE: Hentges is an interesting case here. He threw pretty well, throwing 4.2 scoreless IP. Hentges major issue is his command — he walked four in that first start, and he had an issue with commanding the strike zone in the minors.
- Dallas Keuchel, CHW (at MIN, at NYY, 93%) — THREE: We know what we are getting with the veteran lefty. He will pound the strike zone, and he won’t walk many. But the matchups here, like Bumgarner, are a bit frightening. These are two top-14 teams in terms of team wOBA, so depending on your options, step carefully.
- Casey Mize, DET (at SEA, at KC, 90%) — THREE: The young Mize has been OK as a mainstay in his first full regular season in the major leagues. Sporting a fastball about 50% of the time, he’s generated a nice 55.9% ground-ball rate. The problem is that this approach has led to an 16.3% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. Neither of the offenses here are terrifying, but with Jarred Kelenic in the M’s lineup, it’s definitely a bit spicier.
- Alex Cobb, LAA (vs. CLE, vs. OAK, 18%) — THREE: The Cleveland offense, in any split, is bad. Period. They have already been no-hit twice this season, and against righties, their .276 wOBA is putrid. Oakland, however, offers a little more resistance. Cobb is available, so keep a close watch.
- Andrew Heaney, LAA (vs. CLE, vs. OAK, 100% — FOUR: See above. Heaney is a bit more of a surefire asset, but with an ERA around 5.00, he’s not perfect by any stretch.
- Jameson Taillon, NYY (at TEX, vs. CWS, 99%) — FOUR: He’s in the Heaney category and we could argue him into the must start category. Start one is gorgeous. But buyer beware — the White Sox have outright won their last nine games against lefties. Their .386 wOBA in this split is by far the best mark in the league, but Taillon being a right-hander deadens that risk a bit. It’s still a good offense even as it misses Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert.
- James Kaprielian, OAK (vs. HOU, at LAA, 0%) — THREE: Matchup one is tough against the team that strikes out the least in the league. Matchup two gets scary as the Angels have been on fire after removing Albert Pujols from the lineup. Probably startable, but I wouldn’t expect gaudy whiff totals.
- Justin Dunn, SEA (vs. DET, at SD, 1%) — FOUR: I am all in on Dunn this week. In the first matchup, Detroit, easily the league’s worst offense, owns a .240 wOBA against lefties. Yikes. In the second matchup, the Padres, which totally smashed lefties a year, ranks 22nd in team wOBA. Buy.
- Logan Webb, SF (at CIN, vs. LAD, 18%) — TWO: These matchups are rough. Great American Smallpark (shout out to Bubba Dentrek for the moniker) is such a homer-happy park. And the Dodgers? They haven’t hit their stride yet, and Cody Bellinger remains out. It’s still not one I am messing around with.
- Jon Lester, WAS (at CHC, vs. BAL, 2%) — ONE: This is a blowup spot waiting to happen. Lester is clearly in the twilight of his career, and he sports a 15.2% strikeout rate against a 10.6% walk rate. Not good, Bob. And both of these offenses rank in the top half of the league against lefties.
- Patrick Corbin, WAS (at CHC, vs. BAL, 97%) — THREE: See Lester. One thing to note interestingly — Corbin has basically gone to the slider only recently, with great success, along with a tick up in velocity. Something worth monitoring.
