Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We’re back again for this week’s fantasy baseball Double Dip — highlighting pitchers making two starts in a week. Some of the plays may be obvious — you don’t need a 1,000-word soliloquy highlighting why it’s a good idea to start Jacob deGrom twice. You just do it.
But volume is key, especially two-start-pitcher volume. This column aims to identify all the two-start hurlers, the ones that are no-brainers, the ones that are avoids, and most importantly, focus on the tough-to-call decisions.
Each week, I’ll do my best to highlight some of those tricky arms and what could come your way.
All of the two-steppers (40)
- Caleb Smith, AZ (at STL, vs SF)
- Matt Peacock, AZ (at STL, vs SF)
- Charlie Morton, ATL (vs NYM, vs MIA)
- Tom Eshelman, BAL (at HOU, at LAA)
- Garrett Richards, BOS (vs KC, at OAK)
- Nick Pivetta, BOS (vs KC, at OAK)
- Kyle Hendricks, CHC (at MIL, at CIN)
- Zach Davies, CHC (at MIL, at CIN)
- Wade Miley, CIN (vs PHI, vs CHC)
- Eli Morgan, CLE (vs DET, vs HOU)
- J.C. Mejía, CLE (vs DET, vs HOU)
- Kyle Freeland, COL (vs PIT, vs STL)
- Germán Márquez, COL (vs PIT, vs STL)
- Lucas Giolito, CHW (vs MIN, at DET)
- Dylan Cease, CHW (vs MIN, at DET)
- Zack Greinke, HOU (vs BAL, at CLE)
- Danny Duffy, KC (at BOS, vs MIN)
- Brad Keller, KC (at BOS, vs MIN)
- Trevor Bauer, LAD (vs SF, at WAS)
- Trevor Rogers, MIA (at PHI, at ATL)
- Freddy Peralta, MIL (vs CHC, at PIT)
- Brandon Woodruff, MIL (vs CHC, at PIT)
- Bailey Ober, MIN (at CHW, at KC)
- José Berríos, MIN (at CHW, at KC)
- Marcus Stroman, NYM (at WAS, at NYY)
- Michael King, NYY (vs LAA, vs NYM)
- Jameson Taillon, NYY (vs LAA, vs NYM)
- James Kaprielian, OAK (vs TEX, vs BOS)
- Spencer Howard, PHI (at CIN, vs SD)
- Vince Velasquez, PHI (at CIN, vs SD)
- Chase De Jong, PIT (at COL, vs MIL)
- Chad Kuhl, PIT (at COL, vs MIL)
- Blake Snell, SD (at CIN, at PHI)
- Chris Flexen, SEA (at TOR, vs TEX)
- Anthony DeSclafani, SF (at LAD, at AZ)
- Carlos Martínez, STL (vs AZ, at COL)
- Mike Foltynewicz, TEX (at OAK, at SEA)
- Robbie Ray, TOR (vs SEA, vs TB)
- Erick Fedde, WAS (vs NYM, vs LAD)
- Joe Ross, WAS (vs NYM, vs LAD)
The no-brainers (22)
This group should definitely be in your starting lineup — whether it’s due to matchup or just sheer brilliance, don’t overthink this one. This is a larger group than regular, mostly due to excellent matchups.
- Charlie Morton, ATL (vs NYM, vs MIA)
- Kyle Hendricks, CHC (at MIL, at CIN)
- Zach Davies, CHC (at MIL, at CIN)
- Wade Miley, CIN (vs PHI, vs CHC)
- Germán Márquez, COL (vs PIT, vs STL)
- Lucas Giolito, CHW (vs MIN, at DET)
- Dylan Cease, CHW (vs MIN, at DET)
- Zack Greinke, HOU (vs BAL, at CLE)
- Danny Duffy, KC (at BOS, vs MIN)
- Trevor Bauer, LAD (vs SF, at WAS)
- Trevor Rogers, MIA (at PHI, at ATL)
- Freddy Peralta, MIL (vs CHC, at PIT)
- Brandon Woodruff, MIL (vs CHC, at PIT)
- José Berríos, MIN (at CHW, at KC)
- Marcus Stroman, NYM (at WAS, at NYY)
- Jameson Taillon, NYY (vs LAA, vs NYM)
- James Kaprielian, OAK (vs TEX, vs BOS)
- Chris Flexen, SEA (at TOR, vs TEX)
- Anthony DeSclafani, SF (at LAD, at AZ)
- Robbie Ray, TOR (vs SEA, vs TB)
- Erick Fedde, WAS (vs NYM, vs LAD)
- Joe Ross, WAS (vs NYM, vs LAD)
The run-and-hides (13)
This group should only be started out of pure desperation — the volume is nice, and it definitely could end up working out for you, but starting these hurlers is a real gamble.
- Matt Peacock, AZ (at STL, vs SF)
- Tom Eshelman, BAL (at HOU, at LAA)
- Eli Morgan, CLE (vs DET, vs HOU)
- Kyle Freeland, COL (vs PIT, vs STL)
- Brad Keller, KC (at BOS, vs MIN)
- Bailey Ober, MIN (at CHW, at KC)
- Michael King, NYY (vs LAA, vs NYM)
- Spencer Howard, PHI (at CIN, vs SD)
- Vince Velasquez, PHI (at CIN, vs SD)
- Chase De Jong, PIT (at COL, vs MIL)
- Chad Kuhl, PIT (at COL, vs MIL)
- Carlos Martínez, STL (vs AZ, at COL)
- Mike Foltynewicz, TEX (at OAK, at SEA)
The meat-and-potatoes (5)
This group is one that takes a bit more thinking — the volume is nice, but the matchup could be tricky. Is it worth taking the risk on a questionable start for what could be some juicy fantasy goodness? Let’s dig in and find out.
And since they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I am going to use a similar rating scale that Clay Link and Todd Zola do over at Rotowire — if I was playing in five fantasy baseball leagues, how many would I feel comfortable starting this hurler? Using that as our barometer, we should be able to appropriately deem the risk and reward that’s available if you choose to start this arm. Keep in mind — your league and team context are always key. I’m using a 12-team NFBC Online Championship format as my primary backdrop.
- Caleb Smith, AZ (at STL, vs. SF, 0%) — TWO LEAGUES OUT OF FIVE: This is an interesting slate of matchups. The Cardinals are truly dreadful, but the Giants are great — they are off to one of the best starts in baseball and off to a historic start for the club. Smith is whiffing a ton of hitters but also piling on the walks.
- Garrett Richards/Nick Pivetta, BOS (vs. KC, at OAK, 24%) — TWO: This is basically waxing poetically about the same pitcher, so I’ll combo them together! Both pitchers have been poor as of late. They have shown tantalizing talent generating whiffs, but walks have been their undoing. The Royals matchup isn’t terrifying, but the Oakland start is. Tread carefully.
- J.C. Mejía, CLE (vs. DET, vs. HOU, 4%) — TWO: Mejia has posted mediocre numbers this season — in his last start, he limited the Twins, one of the league’s best offenses, to one run over six innings pitched with six strikeouts. That gives him nearly a strikeout per inning (23.2 innings pitched) this season. The Tigers offense has improved, but the Houston matchup is the league’s best.
- Blake Snell, SD (at CIN, at PHI, 100%) — THREE: If you likely spent top-50 equity on a guy like Blake Snell, this is painful that he isn’t a no-brainer. But, here we are. There’s really no other way to break down Snell’s season other than he’s been terrible — over 66.1 innings pitched, he’s been solid with 90 strikeouts, but a 5.29 ERA and 1.55 WHIP have killed your ratios. These starts won’t be easy.
