Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate. With so many hitters I like under $10,000 today you may not even need to play the true sleepers. Follow me on Twitter to see my exact lineup.
StatHero MVPs
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees
Matt Harvey has somehow not allowed an earned run in his last 18.1 innings even though he allowed 65 in his previous 76. It’s possible this success is because of his increased usage of his changeup, which is up from 9.6% before July 18 to 18.1% in his last three starts. Rizzo is one of the better hitters against changeups with a 111 career wRC+. Since 2019, Harvey is allowing a .369 wOBA, .221 ISO and 42.4% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Rizzo has been excellent since joining the Yankees going 7-16 with two home runs and three multi-hit games. He is also shockingly one of the cheaper Yankees hitters at $11,400, which is why I prefer him over other Yankees.
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
Deverse is one of the most expensive players on the slate and for good reason against Casey Mize, who has been up and down all season. Throughout his career left-handed hitters have enjoyed hitting against him with a .370 wOBA, .269 ISO and 45.7% hard contact rate. These numbers jump off the page for someone with 27 career starts. Devers is one of the best left-handed hitters in the game, destroying right-handed pitching with a .401 wOBA, .301 ISO and 44.5% hard contact rate since 2019. He disappointed me going hitless in five at-bats Tuesday night, but I’ll go back to him in this plus matchup, especially when you factor in the Tigers poor bullpen.
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
Albies is one of the best values on the slate at $9,300 and a great choice for MVP. J.A. Happ has been terrible all season and for some reason was acquired by the Cardinals at the deadline. He is coming off his second start of the season where he allowed nine earned runs. The 74 earned runs Happ has given up this season are tied for the most in baseball. Since 2019, right-handed hitters have dominated Happ with a .357 wOBA, .244 ISO, 44.4% fly ball rate and 38% hard contact rate. Albies rakes against lefties with a .407 wOBA, .259 ISO and 38.5% hard contact rate.
StatHero flex picks
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Riley has been on absolute fire lately, collecting hits in 11 of his last 12 games with seven home runs. He has been great against left-handed pitching with a .338 wOBA, .254 ISO and 38.9% hard contact rate in his career. He also matches up well with Happ, hitting three of his four main pitches with at least a 127 wRC+ this season.
Jorge Soler, Atlanta Braves
Soler is off to a great start with his new team, hitting a home run Tuesday night, his fifth hit in 11 at-bats since joining Atlanta. Soler crushes lefties with a .358 wOBA, .263 ISO and 46% hard contact rate since 2019. Happ is throwing his fourseam fastball 55% of the time this season which plays right into the Soler’s hands (184 career wRC+). $8,200 is way too cheap for this matchup especially since the Cardinals bullpen has the highest walk percentage (12.3%) and worst xFIP (4.88) in baseball.
Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox
I know the Red Sox disappointed Tuesday night against Wily Peralta and the Tigers, but I believe they can bounce back. I think it’s unlikely the Tigers bullpen can pitch 4.1 scoreless innings in back-to-back games. We’ve already gone over Mize’s struggles with left-handed hitters above. Verdugo is a great young hitter against right-handed pitching with a .362 wOBA, .201 ISO and 39.5% hard contact rate since 2019.
Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
McMahon is another surprisingly low price in my opinion at $8,500, especially at Coors Field. Alec Mills is a solid starting pitcher, especially against right-handed hitters, but his glaring issue is against lefties, where he is allowing a .378 wOBA and .225 ISO since 2019. McMahon isn’t a world-beater against right-handed pitching, but he does alright with a .196 ISO and very nice 44.3% hard contact rate. He has massive upside at Coors Field against Mills and the Cubs depleted bullpen since trading away Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin and Ryan Tepera.
José Ramírez, Cleveland Indians
Steven Matz couldn’t get out of the fourth inning in his last start, giving up nine hits and four earned runs. Right-handed hitters have had success against Matz with a .342 wOBA and .215 ISO since 2019. Ramirez is without a doubt the most complete hitter on the Indians so its understandable why he is in the StatHero 6v6 Overnight lineup. Against left-handed pitching he has a .380 wOBA, .257 ISO and 37.4% hard contact rate since 2019. The Rogers Centre is also a great hitters park.
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StatHero sleepers/values
Brian Goodwin, Chicago White Sox
He has been out of the lineup the last couple games, so I would recommend buying the StatHero insurance. Carlos Hernández is coming off the best start of his season pitching six scoreless innings against the White Sox. Goodwin hit a single to left in that game. Left-handed hitters have given Hernandez fits in his career with a .362 wOBA, .245 ISO and 47.7% fly ball rate. Goodwin has done well against right-handed pitching with a .343 wOBA, .216 ISO and 37.9% hard contact rate since 2019. I’ll bet on the White Sox making adjustments versus Hernandez and his last start being more of a fluke, especially with Goodwin at $6,400.
Kyle Farmer, Cincinnati Reds
Farmer has been on fire lately before a 0-4 performance Tuesday night snapped his 10-game hitting streak. Rookie Charlie Barnes gave up one earned run in 4.2 innings in his first career start on July 17. It’s a very small sample size but he allowed a .222 ISO thanks to a double and a home run. Farmer has been excellent against left-handed pitching since 2019 with a .383 wOBA, .215 ISO and 47.1% hard contact rate. His talent alone is worth the $6,900 price tag on StatHero.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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