Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.
StatHero MVPs
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
It’s a fantastic matchup for Springer as he gets to face one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Matt Harvey has given up the third-most earned runs (59) in baseball this season. Right-handed hitters are smoking Harvey’s pitches with a .391 wOBA and .236 ISO since 2019. Right-handed pitching is not a problem for Springer with a .405 wOBA, .315 ISO, 42.6% hard contact rate since 2019. Springer has won the battles they’ve had in the past, going 5-10 with three home runs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
You can essentially play any Blue Jays hitter today against Harvey but I really like Springer and Guerrero Jr. An incredible season so far for as he is second in baseball in batting average (.336), second in HR (28), tied for first in RBI (71), and first in OPS (1.113). In his still-young career, he is smashing right-handed pitching with a .386 wOBA, .230 ISO and 40.1% hard contact rate. Plus, he is 3-5 with one home run against Harvey and is hitting all five of Harvey’s pitches with at least a 105 wRC+ this season.
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
One of the all-time greats against left-handed pitching, Martinez has a .434 wOBA, .332 ISO, 38.4% hard contact rate since 2019. Andrew Heaney is coming off back-to-back rough starts, giving up 12 earned runs and five home runs. His last start was the third time this season he allowed three home runs in one game. Heaney has constantly struggled with giving up power to right-handed hitters, allowing a .202 ISO, 43.9% hard contact rate and 44.5% fly ball rate since 2019. Martinez is hitting each of Heaney’s three pitches with at least a 131 wRC+ this season. A very small sample, but Martinez has hit two home runs in four at-bats against Heaney.
StatHero flex picks
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
Alec Mills has not given up a home run since April 28 and has only allowed eight earned runs in his last 20 innings. However, he has given up 22 hits and seven walks in those 20 innings, so I like Harper’s floor and ceiling. Mills is allowing a .383 wOBA and .227 ISO to left-handed hitters since 2019. Mills also doesn’t strike out many people so there’s a good chance Harper won’t lose you any points. A super small sample but Harper is 2-2 with a home run against Mills. Harper also roughed up the Cubs for five hits including a home run Tuesday night, but the weather could prove troublesome.
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Freeman went without a hit Tuesday night to snap a eight-game hitting streak, but he has been on fire, raising his batting average from .230 June 1 to .268. Wil Crowe has not fared well against left-handed hitters in his career giving up a .380 wOBA, .232 ISO and 36.8% hard contact rate. Freeman crushes right-handed pitching with a .424 wOBA, .281 ISO and 46.2% hard contact rate since 2019.
Hunter Renfroe, Boston Red Sox
Another lefty killer on the Red Sox to take advantage of Andrew Heaney’s power struggles. Renfroe has destroyed left-handed pitching since 2019 with a .377 wOBA, .312 ISO and 44.9% hard contact rate. A fly ball hitter (48.3% vs. LHP since 2019) against a fly ball pitcher (44.5% vs. RHH since 2019) is a great recipe for a potential homer, especially when you consider Heaney’s recent form.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates
After giving up five or more earned runs in four of his first eight starts this season, Drew Smyly has completely turned his season around giving up three earned runs or less in six straight starts. However, Smyly still struggles with right-handed hitters allowing a .345 wOBA, .204 ISO and 40% hard contact rate since 2019. Hayes has back-to-back multi-hit games in the series against the Braves and is hitting left-handed pitching very well in his young career (.415 wOBA, .246 ISO 43.8% hard contact rate).
StatHero sleepers/values
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
The newly minted All-Star is in a good spot to add to his already strong season. Luis García is coming off a tough start, allowing four earned runs in four innings to the Orioles. In his short career, Garcia is allowing a .348 wOBA and .214 ISO to left-handed hitters. Olson crushes right-handed pitching with a .372 wOBA, .269 ISO and 45.7% hard contact rate since 2019. He is way too cheap at $7,700.
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
At $4,500, he really helps you fit in some of the above hitters. He is riding a seven-game hitting streak and only has a 17% strikeout rate so far, which is very good (especially for a rookie hitter), so I feel comfortable with him not losing us a lot of points. Rookie lefty Sam Hentges has been roughed up in back-to-back starts, allowing six earned runs in each. In his young career, Hentges is allowing a .437 wOBA and .230 ISO to right-handed hitters. Another small sample with a short career but so far Franco has a .505 wOBA and .421 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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