Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
Coors Field is doing its best to get Belt back on track this season. He went 4-7 with two home runs in Tuesday’s doubleheader. Opposing starter Jon Gray has been very good at home this season but not against left-handed hitters (.382 wOBA, .225 ISO). Belt also has great success against Gray in his career going 12-26 with five doubles and two home runs.
Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
Acuña continues to dominate after smashing his league-leading 10th home run of the season Tuesday night. Last time Erick Fedde pitched against the Braves, he didn’t even make it out of the second inning, allowing five earned runs. Acuña got hits in both his at-bats off Fedde in that game and hits all of his pitches well.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Heating up at the plate hitting home runs in two of his last four games and one of the best lefty hitters in the game (.434 wOBA, .305 ISO, 40.5% hard contact rate since 2018). Jordan Montgomery has been able to limit hard contact, but that’s easier said than done against a hitter like Bregman. Something Montgomery hasn’t been able to limit is power, he’s allowing a .204 ISO to right-handed hitters since 2018.
StatHero flex pick
Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox
I love attacking Casey Mize with left-handed hitters as he continues to struggle with them. It’s a fairly small sample, but the numbers are astounding: .432 wOBA, .314 ISO, 40% hard contact rate. Verdugo has always hit right-handed pitching well and has now hit safely in four of his last five games, including a home run Tuesday.
Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds
Always a hitter to keep in mind when facing a left-handed pitcher. Dallas Keuchel induces a lot of ground balls, so that knocks Castellanos out of the MVP spot. Since 2018, Castellanos is demolishing left-handed pitching with a .425 wOBA, .267 ISO, and 44.4% hard contact rate. Castellanos has the upper hand when they match up, going 7-18 with a double and a home run.
Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
Chapman is riding a seven-game hitting streak that has brought his batting average from a horrid .169 to a not so terrible .202. Overall, he may be struggling but against left-handed pitching this season he’s crushing it (.375 wOBA, .256 ISO) as he always does. Robbie Ray has been pretty good this season but since 2018 has struggled some with right-handed hitters (.351 wOBA, .217 ISO, 43.6% hard contact).
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
He may finally be turning a corner after hitting his fourth home run of the season Tuesday night. Adbert Alzolay has pitched fairly well this season but lefties have been able to find success against him in his career (.341 wOBA, .186 ISO, 38.9% hard contact rate). Plus, the winds should be blowing out to center Wednesday night.
StatHero sleeper
Dom Nuñez, Colorado Rockies
Nuñez is one of the hardest hitters on the Rockies, but he’s not always in the lineup so there is some risk. He is very cheap when you factor in Coors Field at just $8,500. Four of his five home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching. In his career, he’s crushing righties with a .343 wOBA, .318 ISO, and 52.1% hard contact rate.
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
The surefire Hall of Famer is still a great hitter against left-handed pitching (.386 wOBA, .185 ISO, 46.6% hard contact rate since 2018). It has been a major struggle for him at the plate this year, but that’s why he is one of the cheapest options on StatHero at $8,100. A small sample with just eight at-bats against Martín Pérez in his career, but he did get four hits, including two doubles.
Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals
Benintendi is a sleeper due to the tough matchup with Indians ace Shane Bieber. He’s riding an eight-game hitting streak and has fared surprisingly well versus Bieber in his career (6-11, 2 2B, HR). Bieber is obviously one of the best pitchers in the league, but he has struggled a bit with the long ball, giving up five on the season. Benintendi’s a bit more expensive than I’d like at $9,500, but I don’t mind the play with how good he’s been recently and historically against Bieber.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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