Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Panic or Patience?

It’s been a while, huh? If you’ve been wondering where the Small Ball series went, I can assure you it’s not going away. The last time I published this article was a little over a month ago, and that’s going to be the pattern moving forward.

With the addition of our Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire series (Joe Oricco Mondays and me Fridays), Small Ball will now be a monthly article. It’s honestly better that way. If you’ve been with me from the start, you may have noticed that the same strategy points were being repeated year after year. It becomes difficult to find unique strategy points to use in fantasy baseball on a bi-weekly basis. That’s because the best fantasy managers are consistent in what they do year after year. They rarely stray away from their process, and that’s no different when it comes to how I manage my baseball teams.

So instead of a third year of strategy sessions, I will be writing a monthly Small Ball article that recaps the last month of action and previews the next month, if applicable. To conclude the month of April, I will look back on the first three-plus weeks of the season and react to what I’ve seen across the majors.

There are a handful of players who have started out red-hot. Others have struggled. How should we react to these relatively small sample sizes? That’s the theme of today’s article. Let’s get started.

Panic or Patience?

Two weeks into the fantasy baseball season, I took a screenshot of my four NFBC teams. All four of these leagues are 12-teamers, and my spots in the standings looked like this:

• 8th
• 11th
• 12th
• 12th

Ouch. Talk about an ego-bruising start to the year. Am I washed? Did I draft poorly? Am I destined for my first losing season since debuting in the NFBC streets back in 2022? These are some of the questions that inevitably popped into my head. If you started slow, I’m sure you had similar thoughts. There’s an easy answer to those questions. No, no and no. No matter how awful your teams look after 2-4 weeks, it’s just that – 2-4 weeks.

There are 27 weeks in the NFBC fantasy baseball season. In home leagues, there may be less, but the point remains. There’s a lot of ballgame left. I remember throwing my hands into the air last year around July 4 thinking one of my seasons was over. I ended up winning that NFBC league by the time September ended. And that was July 4! We aren’t even out of April yet!

And here’s the thing: If you look back at your draft, and you truly feel like you drafted a solid team with a strong foundation, I’d be even more optimistic than usual – even with a slow start. Regression hits almost all players. It’s just a matter of whether that regression is positive or negative. If your team is filled with valuable fantasy assets like (spoiler alert) Yordan Alvarez, and you’re hovering near the bottom of the standings, there’s almost nowhere to go but up. Patience, patience, patience. Let’s discuss a handful of players here.

Staying Patient

Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros

Hey, there’s that man again. I’m not worried about Yordan Alvarez at all. He’s had a slow start for sure, with just two homers and a .210 average entering Saturday. But this is a player who has clubbed 33, 37, 31 and 35 homers the past four seasons. The crazy part is, he’s only averaged 135 games played per season in those four. So he’s missed almost 30 games on average and has still broken the 30-HR mark in each year. He’s also hung around the .300 average mark with relative ease. His strikeout percentage is up a tad this year, but it’s early. His statcast numbers, like hard-hit percentage and barrel rates, are all fine. The Astros as a team have had their share of struggles. Once they get going, I expect Alvarez to follow. You weren’t dropping him anyway. I’d buy low if there’s a manager who’s soured on him – even slightly.

Honorable Mention: Yainer Diaz/Christian Walker, Houston Astros

I just mentioned the Astros have struggled as a whole. I’m not panicking yet on either of these assets. I’d be willing to buy low in home leagues. Reach out to those managers and see how low they are willing to sell. If you’re in an NFBC league, I’m comfortable rolling them out on a weekly basis. In fact, they are a huge reason why some of my teams I mentioned above are struggling. And I haven’t benched either of them. Christian Walker has a .164 average with two home runs. LOL as the kids say. There’s no way that’s sustainable.

(Update: Walker homered Saturday, after I had written this. See? Things are looking up.)

Michael Harris II, OF, Atlanta Braves

Not panicking here either. Looking under the hood, I’m not seeing anything particularly concerning with Michael Harris II. His hard-hit rate is down a bit. Small sample, though. His BABIP is atrociously low. That will rebound as the season goes along. It’s going to be difficult to find a player who can contribute in all five categories with this sort of playing time in a good offense. Remember, the Braves just got Sean Murphy back and will get Ronald Acuña Jr. back at some point. There will be plenty of chances to score runs, drive in runs and steal bases for Harris. Another buy-low candidate and hold-tight player if you have him.

Honorable Mention: Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves

Isn’t it funny how some of the top offenses are both struggling because their best players just, like, aren’t performing? If I’m holding Harris and Matt Olson on my teams, I’m sleeping like a baby. These slow starts aren’t sustainable. The production will come.

Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Kansas City Royals

Man, it’s been a brutal start for Vinnie Pasquantino. But like the others mentioned here, I’m not panicked yet. He’s penciled into the lineup every single day and is hitting behind Bobby Witt Jr. That alone notched him 97 RBIs in just 131 games before missing the back half of the year with an injury. His strikeout rates and hard-hit rates are a bit worse to start the year, but I do like the fact he’s hitting the ball in the air more than ever (albeit, in a small sample size). As the weather warms up and Vinnie P starts making harder contact, I expect the HR/RBI numbers to jump. Not worried yet.

Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox

Rafael Devers is a bit of an interesting case. I’m slightly panicked but also willing to be patient here. His strikeout rate is at an astronomical 30.9% rate thus far in 2025. That’s the bad news. The good news? His hard-hit rate and barrel rates are also way up. It doesn’t appear like he’s lost his skill set. It’s just a matter of actually putting the ball in play. In points leagues where you lose -1 points per strikeout, I’d be more panicked than in leagues that don’t penalize for strikeouts. It’s also tough to do anything with him in category leagues other than hold the line. It’s something worth watching, and there’s been speculation that Devers is unhappy with his permanent shift to the designated hitter role. Keep an eye on how Devers performs this coming month to see if he starts putting that bat on the ball more often.

Honorable Mentions

Let’s get some pitchers in here, rapid-fire style:

• Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
• Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
• Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
• Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks

A Bit Panicked

This is going to be a relatively short section. Because if you’re a “bad” player who’s off to a slow start, it’s hard to panic. If you’re a “good” player off to a bad start, I’m almost always willing to be patient at this point of the year, even if there are some eyebrow-raising metrics (see above). If you’re a lesser asset who’s off to a scorching hot start, I’m obviously not panicking. I might be willing to sell high, however.

So who are the “good” players off to slow starts that I’m actually worried about?

Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies

I’m not bailing on him yet, but I’m concerned. Alec Bohm had an excellent first half last season but really, really trailed off in the second half. It all culminated with an awful showing in the postseason, and he’s off to an ice-cold start to the 2025 season as well. It’s tough to outright give up on a player in this type of offensive environment who nearly drove in 100 runs last season – even with the bad second half. But it’s also possible that last year’s late struggles are a sign of things to come. And boy, have they come to start 2025. Bohm is hitting .177 with no homers. If his skills are truly on the decline – and it’s at least possible that they are – you might be holding onto a bit of a dead asset. The concerns are valid.

Robbie Ray, SP, San Francisco Giants

The 33-year-old hasn’t been fully healthy since 2022. We saw some flashes from him when he came back late last year, which had the fantasy community relatively optimistic heading into 2025. The results thus far have been … well, very Robbie Ray-like. A bunch of home runs, a healthy number of strikeouts and a ton of walks. The strikeouts are what keeps him relevant. He’s never going to be efficient, so getting through five-plus innings is going to be a struggle on most days. I’m not predicting any sort of injury, but it’s at least on my radar for a guy who tends to labor through starts and is clearly on the back-nine of his career. He’s a hold in most leagues. Yet if someone is willing to unload some reasonable assets in exchange for Ray in a home league after a gem, I’d be willing to listen.

Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers
Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins

Let’s talk about another pair of pitchers. Like I said in the intro paragraph, I’m not bailing on players this early. But I have some slight concerns about these two right-handers. I believe the fantasy baseball community was a bit too optimistic in draft season regarding Jacob deGrom. In a small sample, he hasn’t looked like the same filthy pitcher we’re accustomed to. And even if he was, we knew the Rangers were going to be extremely careful with him this season. If you drafted deGrom early, you were likely playing the long game. And I’m perfectly fine with that. There’s a really good chance he starts to find his form as the season goes along. But what if he doesn’t? What if he’s not the really solid, but not elite arm we’re accustomed to? That’s pretty much what we’ve seen thus far. And with his workload concerns, you might not be getting the value you expected – even if he shows signs of improvement.

Update: Right after I wrote this, deGrom was excellent against the Dodgers, throwing seven innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts on Friday night. He struck out seven. Still, I’m at least keeping an eye on deGrom.

Regarding Sandy Alcantara, I’m lowering my expectations a bit. He was never a true strikeout pitcher, but his ability to miss bats is really starting to vanish. And it started the year before his Tommy John surgery. So I’m not even sure we can blame that on the slower start on that front. He’s managed to limit the damage to an extent thus far, but he’s going to be at the mercy of BABIP more than I’d like from a pitcher with this type of name value. If he gets traded to a contender, like many people expect, that could boost his value. It’s worth watching Alcantara closely to see if he starts to improve as he gets more comfortable on the bump.

Update: Unlike deGrom, who looked good on Friday night, Alcantara was slaughtered by the Phillies after I wrote this.

Potential Sell-High Players

We talked about patience, we talked about panic. Let’s finish off this monthly article with a rapid-fire list of potential sell-high candidates. I’m not saying you have to sell these players. Many of them might provide value all year long. But I believe their current value is at an all-time high. If someone offers you a no-brainer deal, I’m most likely going to take it.

• Kyren Paris, 2B, Los Angeles Angels
• Tyler Soderstrom, Sacramento Athletics
• Carson Kelly, C, Chicago Cubs (perhaps to a catcher-desperate team)
• Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles
• Wilmer Flores, 1B, San Francisco Giants
• Chris Bassitt, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
• Tyler Mahle, SP, Texas Rangers
• Andrew Heaney, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates