Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory (Week 21)

One of my favorite traditions in August revolves around the NFL. I know, this is a baseball article. We’ll get to that shortly.

A few Christmases ago, I was looking for something under the tree that would really last. I’m an extremely nostalgic person – so a thought hit me.

“Is there a NFL Primetime box set with Chris Berman and Tom Jackson out there? Man, that’s something I’d love to have.”

NFL Primetime was the epitome of my childhood as an NFL fan. It’s still the absolute GOAT sports highlight show. Before I figured out how to illegally stream Green Bay Packers games out-of-market, I used to log onto CBS Sportsline click the “Gametracker” button to follow the game. A football field graphic included the helmet of whichever team possessed the ball. From there, the helmet would move up the field depending on the result of each play. Underneath the graphic was a short description of the play, “B. Favre passes short left to D. Driver for 5 yards, pushed OB by LB Brian Urlacher.”

Man, those were the days. Since there was no way for me to follow the game on television, I relied on NFL Primetime to show me the game action every Sunday night. So when I found someone online selling NFL Primetime seasons from 1998 to 2005, I jumped at the opportunity. That was the sweet spot of my childhood. He sold it to me for $50. What a deal.

Anyway, I bring this up because it’s amazing how much the game of football has changed since 1998. When we think of sports changing, most of us immediately jump to baseball. We’ve added pitch clocks, increased the size of bases, etc. But football has undergone some pretty dramatic changes too. Gone are the days of running backs averaging 25 carries per game. Heck, the kickers were God-awful in the early 2000s.

Fantasy managers who can identify these changes ahead of time and adjust accordingly will always have an edge. So that’s what I’ll discuss in this edition of Game Theory. How can we use some of the trends from this MLB season and apply them moving forward? How can they help us in the final month of this season? It’s never too early to look ahead to next season. Many of you might be doing that already with your teams at the bottom of the standings. Hopefully not, but let’s explore as we trudge through the dog days of August.

Game Theory Week 21: Leaving Our Bias Behind

Bias is one of fantasy sports’ greatest vices. We shouldn’t be biased when we decide who to draft, who to start or who to sit. Yet we’re all biased at times. It’s inevitable. If we can limit bias, or at least recognize it and adjust accordingly, we will be in a better place than our opponents. I shouldn’t have to tell you that home-team bias is one of our biggest culprits. That’s for another day.

Instead, let’s look at other forms of fantasy baseball bias and how we should change our managing habits this season and moving forward.

You Have to Draft a Stud Pitcher

Pitchers are like running backs in fantasy football. We used to enter every football draft saying, “I need at least one stud running back.” Back in the early 2000s, we sure did. That’s changed. I believe we’re seeing the same shift in fantasy baseball from a pitching perspective. It’s easy to look back in hindsight and make this point, but if you read my articles this offseason, I outlined ways to succeed in your fantasy baseball draft using extreme strategies.

One of those strategies, the Extreme Hitter Strategy, is one I’ve deployed the last two seasons in the NFBC Online Auction Championship – and the results have been favorable. I went back and looked at the NFBC top-50 ADP in the month of March. There were 12 starting pitchers drafted inside the top 50.

Burnes has been solid. Definitely not a bust. But probably not what you wanted from the SP1. Cole has paid off his price tag. So has Strider. But after that? It mostly falls off a cliff. Alcantara, deGrom, Nola, Woodruff, Verlander, McClanahan, Scherzer, Cease and Bieber have ranged from “definite busts” to “injury busts” to “mediocre value.”

Now consider these names: Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen, George Kirby, Blake Snell, Logan Gilbert, Logan Webb, Jesús Luzardo, Pablo López, Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Merrill Kelly, José Berríos, Zach Eflin, Justin Steele and Kyle Bradish.

I guarantee you’d feel pretty good with any combination of those arms on your staff. You’d probably feel better rostering those guys compared to the first group – save for Cole and Strider. Here’s where those players were taken based on ADP:

Gausman (54)
Gallen (71)
Kirby (91)
Snell (101)
Gilbert (102)
Webb (112)
Luzardo (134)
Lopez (161)
Bassitt (168)
Senga (174)
Eovaldi (219)
Kelly (236)
Berrios (240)
Eflin (255)
Steele (292)
Bradish (311)

Wow. Seven of these guys were taken outside the top 100. Five were taken outside the top 200! Beyond the top 100 in ADP, you’ll find five of the top 10 MLB ERA leaders (Snell, Steele, Eovaldi, Kelly, Bradish). Inside the top 50 players drafted, you’ll only find Cole.

In terms of strikeouts, only two of the top 50 ADP pitchers are inside the top 10 (again, Cole and Strider). Gausman, Lopez, Snell, Gallen and Luzardo all are inside the top 10 in Ks – with Lopez, Snell and Luzardo taken outside the top 100.

Note: Wednesday’s clunker dropped Luzardo to 11th in K’s – but the point remains.

Steele, Eflin, Bassitt, Eovaldi and Gallen have 11 or more wins. Three of those guys (Steele, Eflin, Eovaldi) were drafted outside the top 219! Only Strider (13) fits that wins criteria among pitchers drafted inside the top 50.

Insanity. I know every year isn’t like the last one, but I firmly believe you can wait on pitching in drafts moving forward. The pitch clock might have something to do with that volatility. It also might be impacting injuries. All the more reason to spend your high draft capital on four- or five-category hitters early in the draft. Not to mention, they play 6-7 times a week as opposed to pitchers going every fifth day.

Auction Perspective

I just mentioned waiting on pitching next year. But what if you prefer auction drafts to snake drafts? That’s easy. Don’t spend a ton of bucks on next year’s top-50 ADP starting pitchers. Duh.

But there’s another little trick I like to deploy in auction drafts. When it’s your turn to nominate a player in the early rounds, nominate a pitcher. And then nominate another one. And another one. Bonus points if they’re a top-50 overall ADP starting pitcher. Doing this forces your opponents to burn through some of their cash while you sit back and save your money.

You can then use that money to scoop up four- or five-category hitters near the top of your board. Or in the mid-late section of the draft, you can use your extra dough to really hit that 100-150 ADP section of the starting pitcher landscape. Guys like Senga, Bassitt and Luzardo were going for $11 or less in my NFBC auction. I’m sure if I go back, I’ll find even more examples of pitching value in that range.

Hoarding Steals

Increasing the size of the bases was another rule put into place to make the game more enjoyable for fans. MLB wanted more steals. There were questions in the preseason how that would impact fantasy baseball. And I believe most of us accurately assumed we’d find more stolen-base value on draft day than previous seasons. But I’m not sure we realized how extreme the change would be.

This year’s top 10 leaders in steals (as of Wednesday) have combined for 351 total swipes. Last year’s top 10 at the end of the season combined for just 310. That’s a significant shift. Anytime you remove scarcity from a certain category, it means fantasy managers can be less aggressive with it on draft day. In this case, we don’t need to hoard stolen-base threats early in the draft in fear of being left out in the cold.

If we simulate the rest of the season right now, there will likely be about 30-plus players with 25 or more steals (compared to only 12 last season). We can use this year’s data to make better decisions next season in terms of SB value.

Conclusion

Perhaps the rest of the industry will hop on board. But for the time being, I’m avoiding top-end pitchers early in drafts like I’ve been doing the past two seasons. I’m going hitter-heavy early without forcing myself to address the SB category. If you can get someone like Corbin Carroll (I nabbed him for $25 in my auction), great. But there are enough guys stealing 25-plus bases nowadays to take more thumpers like Pete Alonso, Matt Olson and Kyle Schwarber early and make up the SB ground later.

Injuries aside, it’s much easier to predict power from season to season than it is to project ratios, wins and batting average. In NFBC contests, the main goal is to win your league. But many of us are also shooting for a top 1% outcome in the overall standings.

The only way to do that is to nail the guys you know will produce in certain categories and mix them in with longshots who pay off. If you anchored your team with guys like Ronald Acuña Jr., Olson and Schwarber early, and then mixed in guys like Eovaldi, Eflin, Steele and Bradish to your pitching staff, that’s how you’d hit that 1% outcome.

I’m still shooting for that, but in the past two years, I’ve gotten pretty darn close. As always, hit me up on Twitter @Adam15Young and reach out in Discord with more questions.