NFL Week 5 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
What an absolute treat the Mets and Brewers series ended up being, unless of course you’re a Milwakuee fan. All three games were intense battles, and it’s going to be tough to top Pete Alonso’s ninth-inning blast to bring the Mets back from the dead in Game 3.
Both National League Division Series feature division rivals facing off. The Mets have their work cut out for them against the Phillies as they enter as decent underdogs. The Padres made quick work of a banged-up Braves squad, outscoring Atlanta 9-4 in two games. San Diego is set to face their biggest rival in the Dodgers. East coast baseball fans are going to have to stay up a little later to catch these two battle. It’ll be worth it though, as this could be the best series of the entire MLB postseason.
We ran the FTN MLB Model, and our Nationals League Division Series projections are posted below.
You can find the American League Division Series Preview here.
National League Division Series
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
This marks the first time these NL East rivals will face each other in the postseason, and it gets underway Saturday at 4:08 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. In fact, this is the first time the Phillies and the Mets have ever been to the Division Series in the same year.
The Mets are fresh off their first postseason series win since 2015. The Phillies have played in the NLCS in back-to-back years. This may be their best overall roster when you compare the previous teams due to their improvements in the bullpen. Add that to the fact no staff had more quality starts than the Phillies’ 80, and they were led by Zack Wheeler who had 26. The former Met rocked a 1.89 ERA over his last 11 outings. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in 11 straight starts and 21 of his past 23 showings. He’s 4-3 with a 2.42 ERA in 11 career outings in the postseason. He’ll get the ball in Game 1, followed by Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez It sounds like Kodai Senga will get the ball in Game 1 for the Mets at least for an inning or two.
Philadelphia won the season series 7-6. However, the Mets had the third-best record in baseball from Aug. 15 on (27-15), and they took four of seven from them in September.
- Mets: 109 wRC+ (7th) – 4.01 SIERA (18th)
- Phillies: 108 wRC+ (8th) – 3.71 SIERA (4th)
Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, October 5, 4:08 p.m. ET:
- Game 2: Sunday, October 6, 4:08 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Tuesday, October 8, TBD
- Game 4 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 9, TBD
- Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, October 11, TBD
Probable Starters
- Game 1: Kodai Senga (Opener – Tylor Megill/David Peterson) vs. Zack Wheeler
- Game 2: Luis Severino vs. Aaron Nola
- Game 3: Cristopher Sánchez vs. Sean Manaea
- Game 4: Ranger Suárez vs. Jose Quintana
- Game 5: David Peterson vs. Zack Wheeler
Series Prices
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Winner: Mets +158 vs. Phillies -188
- Spread: Mets +1.5 -174 — Phillies -1.5 +136
- Total Games: 4.5 (+154/-192)
Mets vs. Phillies Game-By-Game Overview
| Game 1 | Runs | xWIN% |
| NYM | 3.61 | 38.3% |
| PHI | 4.58 | 61.7% |
| Game 2 | Runs | xWIN% |
| NYM | 4.01 | 40.6% |
| PHI | 4.85 | 59.4% |
| Game 3 | Runs | xWIN% |
| NYM | 3.84 | 51.3% |
| PHI | 3.74 | 48.7% |
| Game 4 | Runs | xWIN% |
| NYM | 4.03 | 50.0% |
| PHI | 4.03 | 50.0% |
| Game 5 | Runs | xWIN% |
| NYM | 3.56 | 37.6% |
| PHI | 4.59 | 62.4% |
Mets vs. Phillies Series Overview
| Series Outcomes | xWIN% | xLINE |
| NYM in 3 | 7.98% | +1152 |
| NYM in 4 | 16.05% | +523 |
| NYM in 5 | 13.93% | +618 |
| NYM | 37.97% | +163 |
| PHI in 3 | 17.83% | +461 |
| PHI in 4 | 21.04% | +375 |
| PHI in 5 | 23.16% | +332 |
| PHI | 62.03% | -163 |
Projected starters are not yet official and usage may be adjusted. Check out the FTN MLB Model for updated projections.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB preseason favorite Dodgers begin their postseason taking on their division rival Padres. These two clubs kicked off the MLB season in Seoul back in early March. It’s only fitting these teams get to end their enemy’s 2024 season. The Padres took the season series eight to five over LA. The San Diego rotation took a hit against the Braves when Game 2 starter Joe Musgrove exited early with an elbow injury, leaving his status for the rest of the postseason up in the air. The Pads will look for Matt Waldron to take Musgrove’s spot and hope he regains his early season form. Baseball fans are in for a treat even if this series only lives up to some of the hype.
- Padres: 111 wRC+ (5th) – 3.77 SIERA (5th)
- Dodgers: 118 wRC+ (1st) – 3.96 SIERA (14th)
Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, October 5, 8:38 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Sunday, October 6, 8:03 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Tuesday, October 8, TBD
- Game 4 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 9, TBD
- Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, October 11, TBD
Probable Starters
- Game 1: Dylan Cease vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Game 2: Yu Darvish vs. Jack Flaherty
- Game 3: Walker Buehler vs. Michael King
- Game 4: Landon Knack vs. Matt Waldron
- Game 5: Dylan Cease vs. Jack Flaherty
Series Prices
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Winner: Padres +120 @ Dodgers -142
- Spread: Padres +1.5 -225 — Dodgers-1.5 +172
- Total Games: 4.5 (+148/-184)
Padres vs. Dodgers Game-By-Game Overview
| Game 1 | Runs | xWIN% |
| SD | 3.41 | 42.3% |
| LAD | 3.98 | 57.7% |
| Game 2 | Runs | xWIN% |
| SD | 3.66 | 42.7% |
| LAD | 4.24 | 57.3% |
| Game 3 | Runs | xWIN% |
| SD | 4.11 | 52.2% |
| LAD | 3.93 | 47.8% |
| Game 4 | Runs | xWIN% |
| SD | 3.95 | 45.8% |
| LAD | 4.30 | 54.2% |
| Game 5 | Runs | xWIN% |
| SD | 3.70 | 45.5% |
| LAD | 4.05 | 54.5% |
Padres vs. Dodgers Series Overview
| Series Outcomes | xWIN% | xLINE |
| SD in 3 | 9.44% | +959 |
| SD in 4 | 15.64% | +540 |
| SD in 5 | 16.88% | +492 |
| SD | 41.96% | +138 |
| LAD in 3 | 15.78% | +534 |
| LAD in 4 | 22.02% | +354 |
| LAD in 5 | 20.23% | +394 |
| LAD | 58.04% | -138 |
Projected starters are not yet official and usage may be adjusted. Check out the FTN MLB Model for updated projections.
